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Old 04-16-2012, 08:11 PM
 
10,963 posts, read 3,832,692 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wade52 View Post
Wishful thinking...
No downright fantasy!
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Old 04-16-2012, 08:14 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sanrene View Post
I can't see how obama wins NC - he won it by 14,000 votes in 2008, getting out every liberal, black, hispanic, youth vote, under every rock. Can he do the same in 2012? Not likely.
Considering the the Black and Latino population in North Carolina is growing much faster than the White population he may not have to.
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Old 04-17-2012, 01:00 AM
 
Location: Old Town Alexandria
14,334 posts, read 14,724,479 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JazzyTallGuy View Post
I live in Michigan. You can forget about Romney winning here in the general election after what he said about GM and Chrysler after they received federal funding. Union people in Michigan have LONG MEMORIES. Also Rick Snyder the Republican governor here isn't riding a wave of popularity either.

Also Mitt Romney tied himself to Scott Walker in Wisconsin. Not a smart move, granted Walker may win the recall election simply because the Democrats can't field a strong candidate but the fact he get recalled in the first place is a sign of a serious lack of support. Also the Democrats won the majority of seats in the Senate recall elections in 2011. If I was a Romney supporter I wouldn't be hanging my hat on getting Wisconsin. It a state with a long standing progressive streak.

Realistically Romney's two best shots are NH and PA but PA tends to run heavily Democratic in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. If you look at the primaries Romney's support in rural areas it tepid at best.
^^Agree.

Florida is not a given, Romney as stated wants housing to "hit bottom" this is NOT well received and people in many parts of FL are taking a beating in the housing market. The housing market is a serious issue this year.
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Old 04-17-2012, 01:34 AM
 
1,257 posts, read 686,402 times
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You're really kidding yourself if you think states like MA, NJ and CT are in play. They're not. Take a look at John Kerry's map from 2004. That's Obama's minimum. Take a look at McCain's from 2008. That's Romney's minimum.

Why would you consider PA a swing state? It hasn't gone GOP in over 20 years. Ditto Michigan. Obama had high 50s in both. I wouldn't consider them in play at all. It might be a bit closer, but Romney won't take them. Ohio will be close, but I still give it to Obama. I don't see any Romney enthusiasm here (yet) and Kasich is extremely unpopular. If GOTV managed to overturn the union-busting bill in 2011, you can be sure as hell that they'll GOTV in November.

This is my very Conservative map: http://www.270towin.com/2012_electio....php?mapid=jeD
My most optimistic: http://www.270towin.com/2012_electio....php?mapid=jeE
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Old 04-17-2012, 06:59 AM
 
10,963 posts, read 3,832,692 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dreamofmonterey View Post
^^Agree.

Florida is not a given, Romney as stated wants housing to "hit bottom" this is NOT well received and people in many parts of FL are taking a beating in the housing market. The housing market is a serious issue this year.
There are five states that are going to be critical in this election Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Virginia. President Obama can probably stand to lose one or two of those states. For Mitt Romney to win the presidency he's got to win at least three of those states.

Last edited by JazzyTallGuy; 04-17-2012 at 07:12 AM..
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Old 04-17-2012, 07:15 AM
 
Location: Illinois Delta
5,685 posts, read 2,177,961 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dreamofmonterey View Post
^^Agree.

Florida is not a given, Romney as stated wants housing to "hit bottom" this is NOT well received and people in many parts of FL are taking a beating in the housing market. The housing market is a serious issue this year.
Not to worry...Romney will do a 180 on the housing issue, just as he's done with health care, guns, birth control and so many other issues. It seems that the only thing Romney's certain of is that he wants to add that fancy white house in D.C. to his list of homes.
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Old 04-17-2012, 07:29 AM
 
Location: Maryland
16,826 posts, read 6,637,789 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sanrene View Post
They are definitely swing states. See, this is obama's problem......traditional "blue" states will be in play.

I don't see obama winning NC, IA, IN and FL again. OH, PA and VA will be close. NH I will give to Romney.
I think Obama can win Florida. Agree with everything else
Quote:
Give obama NV, CO, NM, MI, WI, MN and VA, in addition to the "normal" blue states (although I think states like CT, MA, OR and WA) might be open for Romney.
I wouldn't give Obama, NV, CO or NM just yet don't let the Hispanic demographic fool you. They have low turnout rates, I'm skeptical about how crucial they are to the race, we'll see in November.

I certainly wouldn't give Virginia to Obama just yet. He won in '08 because he turnout the Black vote in record numbers there and frankly folks wanted a change from Bush. Expect a tighter race and a somewhat moderate Romney will play better than McCain in the NoVa suburbs.
Quote:
Give Romney IN, IA, PA, OH, NC, FL and NH.
Again Florida is far from a Romney slam dunk. PA is also very questionable in my opinion

Quote:
283-255 Romney.

One thing you have to look at are the traditional BLUE states that went RED in 2010/2011. MN, WI, ME, PA, in addition to OH.
Off election years. Don't read too much into it. Scott Brown won a statewide election in MA and no one thinks MA is in play.

Obama is a disaster but there are still a lot of clueless white liberals and black Obamabots to keep him in the White House.
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Old 04-17-2012, 11:47 AM
 
93 posts, read 27,372 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sanrene View Post
They are definitely swing states. See, this is obama's problem......traditional "blue" states will be in play.

I don't see obama winning NC, IA, IN and FL again. OH, PA and VA will be close. NH I will give to Romney.

Give obama NV, CO, NM, MI, WI, MN and VA, in addition to the "normal" blue states (although I think states like CT, MA, OR and WA) might be open for Romney.

Give Romney IN, IA, PA, OH, NC, FL and NH.

283-255 Romney.

One thing you have to look at are the traditional BLUE states that went RED in 2010/2011. MN, WI, ME, PA, in addition to OH.
you wish; MI, OH, PA, WI, NV, CO sure for barack, and that's the election, in addition I think he will win FL, NH, and VA at least
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Old 04-17-2012, 12:06 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
13,645 posts, read 6,913,022 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EdwardA View Post
I think Obama can win Florida. Agree with everything else


I wouldn't give Obama, NV, CO or NM just yet don't let the Hispanic demographic fool you. They have low turnout rates, I'm skeptical about how crucial they are to the race, we'll see in November.

I certainly wouldn't give Virginia to Obama just yet. He won in '08 because he turnout the Black vote in record numbers there and frankly folks wanted a change from Bush. Expect a tighter race and a somewhat moderate Romney will play better than McCain in the NoVa suburbs.


Again Florida is far from a Romney slam dunk. PA is also very questionable in my opinion



Off election years. Don't read too much into it. Scott Brown won a statewide election in MA and no one thinks MA is in play.

Obama is a disaster but there are still a lot of clueless white liberals and black Obamabots to keep him in the White House.
Colorado looks gone, the hispanic vote is part of it, but the GOP's massive problems in the once Republican inner Denver suburbs is really where the problem lies.

As far as Virginia, Obama the high turnout with the black vote was part of it, but again its the suburbs that are turning into a disaster for the GOP. Romney has bee pushed even furthr to the right than what McCain ran on in 2008 (which is considerably further right than how he ran in the 2000 Primary). Fairfax is going to be an unmititated disaster for Romney. Turnout among the well educated liberals in suburban DC certainly is going to be high.
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Old 04-17-2012, 12:27 PM
 
5,309 posts, read 3,428,759 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EdwardA View Post
I think Obama can win Florida. Agree with everything else


I wouldn't give Obama, NV, CO or NM just yet don't let the Hispanic demographic fool you. They have low turnout rates, I'm skeptical about how crucial they are to the race, we'll see in November.

I certainly wouldn't give Virginia to Obama just yet. He won in '08 because he turnout the Black vote in record numbers there and frankly folks wanted a change from Bush. Expect a tighter race and a somewhat moderate Romney will play better than McCain in the NoVa suburbs.


Again Florida is far from a Romney slam dunk. PA is also very questionable in my opinion



Off election years. Don't read too much into it. Scott Brown won a statewide election in MA and no one thinks MA is in play.

Obama is a disaster but there are still a lot of clueless white liberals and black Obamabots to keep him in the White House.
MA will probably be a 6-12 point victory for Obama, the Fact that Scott Brown is polling 46/45 against Warren and Romney is polling 40/51 against Obama shows that Obamas support is more maluable than Romneys because with the same 9% undecided I would assume that 40/46% of Browns supporters are voting for Romney, leaving l a Likely 6% od Scott Brown voters voting for Obama which shows a moderate support for Obama that would likely be more willing to swing to Romney than Romneys supporters to Obama, now not to say that six percent will leave Obama, but they would seem to be the most likely to swing to Another canidate. On the inverse this also means Browns support is made up of a good deal of swing voters which would make it easier for him to lose the lead too.
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