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Old 04-18-2012, 08:09 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
18,702 posts, read 14,816,085 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by btownboss4 View Post
Northern Maine (ME-1) is more Republican, but he has a slim chance of Winning Maine he could get a EV from the Split, RI has a sputtering economy (~10% Unemployment) and a populous fed up with the Democratic Party, they even elected an Independant for Governor over a semi-popular Democrat in 2010.
Now MAssachusetts has nearly 0 chance of going (R) this year because it economy came back strong, and the Democrats sweeping victories in 2010 don't bode well for Republicans this year.
No, he has no chance of winning Maine, and no chance of winning the more Republican district, which is still a Democratic district.

Rhode Island has zero chance, none at all. They don't like the former mayor, that doesn't mean they are fed up with the Democratic Party. The Independent Gov in Chafee is quite liberal. Its absolutely absurd to suggest Rhode Island will be even remotely close, let alone Romney having a chance to win it. Rhode Island was Obama's 3rd strongest state in 2008 (even stronger than MA)
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Old 04-18-2012, 08:16 PM
 
8,646 posts, read 8,781,877 times
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Originally Posted by Smash255 View Post
No, he has no chance of winning Maine, and no chance of winning the more Republican district, which is still a Democratic district.

Rhode Island has zero chance, none at all. They don't like the former mayor, that doesn't mean they are fed up with the Democratic Party. The Independent Gov in Chafee is quite liberal. Its absolutely absurd to suggest Rhode Island will be even remotely close, let alone Romney having a chance to win it. Rhode Island was Obama's 3rd strongest state in 2008 (even stronger than MA)
10% unemployment and city after city going bankrupt (East Providence, Woonsocket, Central Falls, and maybe Providence) does not bode well for any Incumbent trying to win Rhode Island, Democrat, Idependant or Republican.
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Old 04-18-2012, 08:29 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
18,702 posts, read 14,816,085 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by btownboss4 View Post
10% unemployment and city after city going bankrupt (East Providence, Woonsocket, Central Falls, and maybe Providence) does not bode well for any Incumbent trying to win Rhode Island, Democrat, Idependant or Republican.
The state has its share of issues, no question about it. However, something like that if lets say was going on under a Republican administration in Wyoming, isn't suddenly going to make that state close or competitive, same thing for Rhode Island.

When a state has economic issues, an argument can be made it could go one way or another based off those issues, but it has to at least be somewhat of a swing state or within reach for something like that too happen. It sure as hell isn't going to happen when we are talking about states that are the bluest of the blue or the reddest of the red.
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Old 04-18-2012, 08:43 PM
 
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Originally Posted by Smash255 View Post
The state has its share of issues, no question about it. However, something like that if lets say was going on under a Republican administration in Wyoming, isn't suddenly going to make that state close or competitive, same thing for Rhode Island.

When a state has economic issues, an argument can be made it could go one way or another based off those issues, but it has to at least be somewhat of a swing state or within reach for something like that too happen. It sure as hell isn't going to happen when we are talking about states that are the bluest of the blue or the reddest of the red.
In Rhode Island if Providence ends up Bankrupt, which unless serious changes are put in place (taxes are going up 10% in Prov), It will definatly slip into play, as its practically a city-state.
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Old 04-18-2012, 09:15 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
18,702 posts, read 14,816,085 times
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Originally Posted by btownboss4 View Post
In Rhode Island if Providence ends up Bankrupt, which unless serious changes are put in place (taxes are going up 10% in Prov), It will definatly slip into play, as its practically a city-state.
Providence will put Rhode Island into play?? The 83-15 Providence?? WTF??
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Old 04-18-2012, 09:23 PM
 
8,646 posts, read 8,781,877 times
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Originally Posted by Smash255 View Post
Providence will put Rhode Island into play?? The 83-15 Providence?? WTF??
If Providence goes Belly up, it would be hard for any incumbant to win, but it just so happens most incumbants are Democrat.
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Old 04-18-2012, 09:28 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
18,702 posts, read 14,816,085 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by btownboss4 View Post
If Providence goes Belly up, it would be hard for any incumbant to win, but it just so happens most incumbants are Democrat.
Politics 101, it doesn't work that way............

Obama will win Rhode Island by at least 20+, likely 25+, and he will win Providence by at least 60.
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Old 04-18-2012, 09:32 PM
 
8,646 posts, read 8,781,877 times
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Originally Posted by Smash255 View Post
Politics 101, it doesn't work that way............

Obama will win Rhode Island by at least 20+, likely 25+, and he will win Providence by at least 60.
Yes it does, Rhode Island went overwhelmingly for Carter, Economy tanked, then went for Reagan in 1980, and 1984.
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Old 04-18-2012, 09:37 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
18,702 posts, read 14,816,085 times
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Originally Posted by btownboss4 View Post
Yes it does, Rhode Island went overwhelmingly for Carter, Economy tanked, then went for Reagan in 1980, and 1984.
1. Comparing a landslide is insane No one is suggesting Romney is going to wi by a margin similar to Reagan's in 1980.

2. Reagan did win Rhode Island in his landslide in 1984, but he lost it in 1980. In fact, Carter's margin in 1980 in the state was very similar to his 1976 margin over Ford.
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Old 04-18-2012, 09:49 PM
 
8,646 posts, read 8,781,877 times
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Originally Posted by Smash255 View Post
1. Comparing a landslide is insane No one is suggesting Romney is going to wi by a margin similar to Reagan's in 1980.

2. Reagan did win Rhode Island in his landslide in 1984, but he lost it in 1980. In fact, Carter's margin in 1980 in the state was very similar to his 1976 margin over Ford.
Rhode Island could be a shocker, with such a horrid economy and Fiscal woes hanging around Obama will have a hard time selling reelection to Rhode Islanders, and I would venture to say if Providences mess ends in Bankruptcy it would be a difficult state to hold on to, despite it's uber-liberalness.
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