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Old 04-15-2012, 06:06 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
18,602 posts, read 14,685,478 times
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Trying to get some type of consensus (which might be an impossible task on here ) on what everyone thinks the swing states are.

I decided to take a look at the states which have not gone to the same party for the last three elections as a starting point

22 states have gone GOP in each of the last three elections, 18 states + DC have gone Dem in the last three elections.

10 states have not been swept those are:

Colorado
Florida
Indiana
Iowa
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Mexico
North Carolina
Ohio
Virginia

Of those I think you can take out Indiana as being swing as its mostly a GOP state. I would also take out New Mexico and Nevada as both states have moved too far away from the GOP.

This basically leaves a 253-191 advantage for Obama over states that you can really argue lean one way or another. This is also without even taking into consideration Colorado which appears to be gone for the GOP and being somewhat generous with New Hampshire.

So considering what the swing states are (without including states that might not be strong for one side, but do lean one way or the other) it looks like Romney might need to sweep the swing states, which is not an easy task.
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Old 04-15-2012, 07:06 PM
 
Location: Texas
14,969 posts, read 13,684,148 times
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Yes, obviously Romney needs to win most of the swing states. Whether he wins enough of them or not primarily depends on how the economy does between now and November.

I would agree with you that NM is pretty much out of the question for Romney and that IN is pretty much out of the question for Obama. I would not agree that NV is out of the question for Romney. Even though Obama has led in the majority of polls in NV, he still hasn't led with more than 50% in most and the state is doing even worse economically than almost all other states. In addition, the state has a relatively large Mormon population.

There are several states that have not swung back and forth between the two parties, but have been won by very small margins by either party in one or more of the last three elections - PA, WI, and MI (in 2000/2004) and MO (in 2008). I don't think those states should be overlooked.

I agree that this election will be harder, because of the electoral college math and the new states that have shifted into the "tossup" category, for Romney to win than it will be for Obama to win.

Last edited by afoigrokerkok; 04-15-2012 at 07:19 PM..
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Old 04-15-2012, 07:36 PM
 
8,758 posts, read 8,591,880 times
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This is a conservative prediction of how it's going to go:


2012 Presidential Election Interactive Map and History of the Electoral College




And I still think NH, MI, WI, and PA are a possibility also.
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Old 04-15-2012, 07:39 PM
 
Location: Greater Washington, DC
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Obama was faced with this uphill challenge in 2008 too. He flipped a number of states in the end, many that people weren't even expecting
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Old 04-15-2012, 07:45 PM
 
Location: Dallas
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I wouldnt count mass as a win for BO Romney could win it. Its gonna be a close election obama sucks and all Romney has is Im not that guy going for him. Either way I dont think much will change whoever wins but that being said Ill go for Romney.
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Old 04-15-2012, 07:48 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dixiegirl7 View Post
This is a conservative prediction of how it's going to go:


2012 Presidential Election Interactive Map and History of the Electoral College




And I still think NH, MI, WI, and PA are a possibility also.
I live in Michigan. You can forget about Romney winning here in the general election after what he said about GM and Chrysler after they received federal funding. Union people in Michigan have LONG MEMORIES. Also Rick Snyder the Republican governor here isn't riding a wave of popularity either.

Also Mitt Romney tied himself to Scott Walker in Wisconsin. Not a smart move, granted Walker may win the recall election simply because the Democrats can't field a strong candidate but the fact he get recalled in the first place is a sign of a serious lack of support. Also the Democrats won the majority of seats in the Senate recall elections in 2011. If I was a Romney supporter I wouldn't be hanging my hat on getting Wisconsin. It a state with a long standing progressive streak.

Realistically Romney's two best shots are NH and PA but PA tends to run heavily Democratic in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. If you look at the primaries Romney's support in rural areas it tepid at best.
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Old 04-15-2012, 07:52 PM
 
Location: Chicagoland
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dixiegirl7 View Post
This is a conservative prediction of how it's going to go:


2012 Presidential Election Interactive Map and History of the Electoral College




And I still think NH, MI, WI, and PA are a possibility also.
They are definitely swing states. See, this is obama's problem......traditional "blue" states will be in play.

I don't see obama winning NC, IA, IN and FL again. OH, PA and VA will be close. NH I will give to Romney.

Give obama NV, CO, NM, MI, WI, MN and VA, in addition to the "normal" blue states (although I think states like CT, MA, OR and WA) might be open for Romney.

Give Romney IN, IA, PA, OH, NC, FL and NH.

283-255 Romney.

One thing you have to look at are the traditional BLUE states that went RED in 2010/2011. MN, WI, ME, PA, in addition to OH.
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Old 04-15-2012, 08:01 PM
 
8,758 posts, read 8,591,880 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JazzyTallGuy View Post
I live in Michigan. You can forget about Romney winning here in the general election after what he said about GM and Chrysler after they received federal funding. Union people in Michigan have LONG MEMORIES. Also Rick Snyder the Republican governor here isn't riding a wave of popularity either.

Also Mitt Romney tied himself to Scott Walker in Wisconsin. Not a smart move, granted Walker may win the recall election simply because the Democrats can't field a strong candidate but the fact he get recalled in the first place is a sign of a serious lack of support. Also the Democrats won the majority of seats in the Senate recall elections in 2011. If I was a Romney supporter I wouldn't be hanging my hat on getting Wisconsin. It a state with a long standing progressive streak.

Realistically Romney's two best shots are NH and PA but PA tends to run heavily Democratic in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. If you look at the primaries Romney's support in rural areas it tepid at best.

We don't need them to win and that is why I didnt' include them in my map of wins.
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Old 04-15-2012, 08:07 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
18,602 posts, read 14,685,478 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sanrene View Post
They are definitely swing states. See, this is obama's problem......traditional "blue" states will be in play.

I don't see obama winning NC, IA, IN and FL again. OH, PA and VA will be close. NH I will give to Romney.

Give obama NV, CO, NM, MI, WI, MN and VA, in addition to the "normal" blue states (although I think states like CT, MA, OR and WA) might be open for Romney.

Give Romney IN, IA, PA, OH, NC, FL and NH.

283-255 Romney.

One thing you have to look at are the traditional BLUE states that went RED in 2010/2011. MN, WI, ME, PA, in addition to OH.
Traditional blue states are not in play.
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Old 04-15-2012, 08:11 PM
 
10,963 posts, read 7,708,370 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sanrene View Post
They are definitely swing states. See, this is obama's problem......traditional "blue" states will be in play.

I don't see obama winning NC, IA, IN and FL again. OH, PA and VA will be close. NH I will give to Romney.

Give obama NV, CO, NM, MI, WI, MN and VA, in addition to the "normal" blue states (although I think states like CT, MA, OR and WA) might be open for Romney.

Give Romney IN, IA, PA, OH, NC, FL and NH.

283-255 Romney.

One thing you have to look at are the traditional BLUE states that went RED in 2010/2011. MN, WI, ME, PA, in addition to OH.
They just signed a law legalizing same-sex marriage in Washington state in March. The majority of the votes in the state are in Seattle. Trust me, Romney can't win there. The place is way too progressive in the major population areas.

Romney had to run as moderate to win in Massachusetts. Scott Brown is facing some serious competition from Elizabeth Warren. It's going to be very interesting to see which way Massachusetts goes. Romney despite being the governor doesn't have real strong ties to the state. He is a Michigan native and has homes in New Hampshire and California, and an "address" in Massachusetts.
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