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Old 04-24-2012, 07:57 AM
 
Location: Hillsboro, OR
2,200 posts, read 3,790,765 times
Reputation: 1366

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Granted it is a surprise on the order of being a kid, telling your mom that you're tired of vanilla ice cream, being promised she's going to get strawberry when she goes to the grocery store, then... surprise!... she comes back with vanilla bean ice cream.


Polls in the 2012 Alberta General Election leading up to the campaign showed a decent Wildrose majority government would be the result of the election with ~40% of the vote going to the Wildrose and winning around 49 seats in the Albera legislature, with the PCs slipping to official opposition status, New Democrats winning 3-6 seats, and the Liberals winning 0-3 seats.

The polls were completely wrong.

Results:

Progressive Conservatives 62 seats (43.98%)
Wildrose 17 seats (34.51%)
New Democrats 4 seats (9.80%)
Liberals 4 seats (9.63%)



One theory going about is that Liberal voters were so frightened at the idea of a Wildrose government that towards the last several days of the campaign, the combined effects of racist and anti-gay comments from a couple of Wildrose candidates caused Liberal voters to jump to the Progressive Conservatives in a strategic voting situation.


What does something like this say about polling firms?
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