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Old 05-02-2012, 11:29 PM
 
8,758 posts, read 8,844,209 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HtownLove View Post
Someone from the South.


Have you noticed how Romney did dismally in the Southern Primaries?


Obama won 3 States in the South in 08 and was close in a forth (Georgia) it should be scary for republicans going into this election.


I am not saying that Mississippi, Alabama, Texas are going Blue, but I sure don't see them coming all out for Romney. ARK may return a lighter shade of red too.

To cross the finish line Romney needs both Ohio and Florida, but before that he needs to win back Virginia and North Carolina. That is why I think he is gonna pick a VP from a Southern State. By bet is on Bob Mc Donnell from Virginia


Romney is weak among women but I think he will be too scared to pick a woman as his VP because memories of Palin are still too fresh. Its too soon for the republicans. A Southern Female Minority (Such as Nikki Haley) would send waves but again the risks are too high.

Presidential Candidates need to sure up their negatives in their VP, and although Nikki would raise Romney's scores in certain constituencies, the two together don't make a full President like Obama and Biden did.

Months before Obama announced it, I told friends that he was gonna pick Biden. Everyone said he was boring, and I said exactly. Obama was the celebrity, he was young, no foreign/ millitary experience. Obama needed someone with experience, he needed someone low key and he needed someone White. Biden was the obvious choice.

Romney has a variety of choices, but a Southerner, preferably from Virginia seems like the best bet to me. He can win FL and OH without picking people from there People having been touting Rubio, I think that is the fast way to lose the election.

I would say, you might be right. Virginia and North Carolina will be very important in this election. Also, McDonnel, being a former military person has the foreign policy experience to balance the ticket. I have thought it might be McDonnell all along.
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Old 05-02-2012, 11:30 PM
 
8,758 posts, read 8,844,209 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dale Cooper View Post
I can't get psyched up enough about Romney to play this game. The only names I can think of that would excite me would be Newt or Rand.

I really doubt you are going to get excited any time soon then.
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Old 05-02-2012, 11:57 PM
 
Location: Old Mother Idaho
21,232 posts, read 14,256,943 times
Reputation: 15725
Quote:
Originally Posted by tmsterp View Post
I would say Portman. Romney needs a safe pick. Look at Clinton-Gore, they were from neighboring states, were both perceived as moderate Democrats, and really didn't complement each others weaknesses at all. Sometimes that's all you need, someone who's in tune with you. I don't think we should be looking strategically by region, gender, race etc. I gave the Clinton-Gore example. But Bush picked Cheney from a safe red state (Wyoming) and Obama picked Biden from a safe blue state (Delaware). In 84, Mondale picked Ferraro, a female, and lost. In 88, Dukakis picked Bentsen (Texas) and lost. In 96, Dole (Kansas) picked Kemp (New York) and lost. In 2000, Gore (Tennessee) picked Lieberman (Jewish, Connecticut) and lost. In 2004, Kerry (Massachusetts) picked Edwards (North Carolina) and lost. In 2008, McCain picked Palin (Female) and lost.

Obviously, my cherry picking doesn't conclusively prove that picking a running mate with a complementary gender/race/region/ethnicity doesn't help. but I think I gave enough examples to show that any benefit is marginal and inconsequential at best, especially since the examples I pointed out of people who used that strategy lost to people who didn't use that strategy and went with "safe" picks, people more like themselves. And that seems to me to be the ticket.

If Romney picks Portman, I think they can frame themselves as the adults in the race who are above all the political celebrity nonsense when our country is in such crisis. I think they will have a much more focused message than if the VP were someone with a little more pizazz. 200 years of this country's history shows boring can win elections. It doesn't always, but it can. And I really think that's the best option for Romney
...except Cheney picked himself. He was in charge of selecting the VP for Bush, picked himself, and Bush went along with it.
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Old 05-03-2012, 03:07 AM
 
Location: Inwood
552 posts, read 629,588 times
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Great analysis! I am a from the other side, but if I were Romney I would go with a center right candidate from the south with strong evangelical support. Someone like bush, but more small town middle class. The reason I say this is because Romney isn't going to bring out the christian vote and he is seen as the rich stiff republican. They need to offset that with an intelligent southerner who can bring out the charm, something romney lacks.
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Old 05-03-2012, 04:20 AM
 
Location: Tampa Florida
22,243 posts, read 15,265,325 times
Reputation: 4583
Quote:
Originally Posted by dixiegirl7 View Post
I would say, you might be right. Virginia and North Carolina will be very important in this election. Also, McDonnel, being a former military person has the foreign policy experience to balance the ticket. I have thought it might be McDonnell all along.

Could be right, McDonnell is reserving more ad time for the next few weeks. Do you think Romney can withstand the continuing ad blitz of his?

Bob McDonnell Reserving Ad Time In Virginia
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Old 05-03-2012, 05:21 AM
 
387 posts, read 852,826 times
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What do you guys think of Bobby Jindal for Romney's VP? Possible?
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Old 05-03-2012, 07:23 AM
 
Location: Tampa Florida
22,243 posts, read 15,265,325 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by goldenncmom View Post
What do you guys think of Bobby Jindal for Romney's VP? Possible?
Nope, he just effectively told Chuck Todd he is not willing to go thru vetting process.
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Old 05-03-2012, 07:26 AM
 
387 posts, read 852,826 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by florida.bob View Post
Nope, he just effectively told Chuck Todd he is not willing to go thru vetting process.
Hmmm...interesting. What's he hiding?
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Old 05-03-2012, 07:28 AM
 
Location: Tampa Florida
22,243 posts, read 15,265,325 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by goldenncmom View Post
Hmmm...interesting. What's he hiding?
Hard to say, but I suspect not many politicians could survive a thorough vetting.
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Old 05-03-2012, 07:43 AM
 
Location: Austin, TX
1,608 posts, read 3,140,955 times
Reputation: 709
Quote:
Originally Posted by boycewv View Post
Great analysis! I am a from the other side, but if I were Romney I would go with a center right candidate from the south with strong evangelical support. Someone like bush, but more small town middle class. The reason I say this is because Romney isn't going to bring out the christian vote and he is seen as the rich stiff republican. They need to offset that with an intelligent southerner who can bring out the charm, something romney lacks.
Do you mean someone like Huckabee?
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