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Old 05-08-2012, 12:46 PM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
662 posts, read 1,222,501 times
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New Mexico is still considered a battleground or swing state. I am working very hard at the grassroots level on the president's campaign, and we are told that if New Mexico goes blue, there is a greater chance that Colorado and possibly Arizona will go blue. One only needs to look at the 2010 election with the Republicans gaining a great deal here in NM, to know that we are still a battlground state.
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Old 05-08-2012, 12:53 PM
 
Location: Sonoran Desert
29,287 posts, read 39,611,449 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nonexpat View Post
New Mexico is still considered a battleground or swing state. I am working very hard at the grassroots level on the president's campaign, and we are told that if New Mexico goes blue, there is a greater chance that Colorado and possibly Arizona will go blue. One only needs to look at the 2010 election with the Republicans gaining a great deal here in NM, to know that we are still a battlground state.
Thank you for your efforts on behalf of everyday Americans! NM will go for Obama as long as the get out the vote efforts are successful. AZ is a possibility as well if registration and get out the vote penetrates that Hispanic community. There is no love for Republicans among that group. As for 2010, Republicans had a good year because Dems and Indies stayed home.
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Old 05-08-2012, 12:58 PM
 
Location: Bella Vista, Ark
71,683 posts, read 83,258,368 times
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Originally Posted by Smash255 View Post
I think its out of the swing column. It was very close in 2000 and 2004 (going narrowly to each side) but since then the Hispanic vote in the state has increased and become more Democratic.
I don't have any stats and I am sure you do, but I find it hard to believe the Hispanic vote has increased. :think Also from living there, even in a county that was heavily Democrat, there are a huge number of Hispanics that are Republicans. Many, who have lived in NM for generations are conservative. Again, I don't know the exact comparison between the registered voters from 2000 to 2010.
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Old 05-08-2012, 01:08 PM
 
Location: Bella Vista, Ark
71,683 posts, read 83,258,368 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nonexpat View Post
New Mexico is still considered a battleground or swing state. I am working very hard at the grassroots level on the president's campaign, and we are told that if New Mexico goes blue, there is a greater chance that Colorado and possibly Arizona will go blue. One only needs to look at the 2010 election with the Republicans gaining a great deal here in NM, to know that we are still a battlground state.
Colo, quite possibly, in fact I would see it going blue quicker maybe, than NM but you guys are dreaming when you think it will happen in AZ. You have to consider the overall voters in AZ, not just the breakdown of parties. I will be anxious to talk to hubby's cousin next week. He lives in Scottsdale and is very politically active. We are meeting them in Vegas for a few days. My Z fiance lives in Mesa, he is laughing at any talk of AZ doing D.
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Old 05-08-2012, 01:21 PM
 
Location: Sonoran Desert
29,287 posts, read 39,611,449 times
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Originally Posted by nmnita View Post
Colo, quite possibly, in fact I would see it going blue quicker maybe, than NM but you guys are dreaming when you think it will happen in AZ. You have to consider the overall voters in AZ, not just the breakdown of parties. I will be anxious to talk to hubby's cousin next week. He lives in Scottsdale and is very politically active. We are meeting them in Vegas for a few days. My Z fiance lives in Mesa, he is laughing at any talk of AZ doing D.
Poll after poll in AZ shows it dead even statistically. What it depends on is get out the vote in the Hispanic community. A big turnout there will put Obama over the top. I don't think you appreciate how much the Hispanic vote has turned against the Republicans. Conservative ideals don't matter what when you perceive that a party is vilifying you for political gain. When a candidate argues that your parents or grandparents should be forced to "self-deport", it is personal.

If SB1070 is upheld like I expect it will be, there is going to a groundswell of activism in the Hispanic community for the fall election. People like McCain have warned about the R's hispanic disconnect and even Romney has recognized it. The Obama effort here is going to be on getting those folks to the polls. I think it is an uphill battle, but AZ is definitely not a lost cause for Obama. Combine a win for SB1070 with an improving economy in AZ and it could very, very well go Blue.
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Old 05-08-2012, 01:33 PM
 
Location: 3219'03.7"N 10643'55.9"W
8,114 posts, read 17,281,853 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nmnita View Post
I don't have any stats and I am sure you do, but I find it hard to believe the Hispanic vote has increased. :think Also from living there, even in a county that was heavily Democrat, there are a huge number of Hispanics that are Republicans. Many, who have lived in NM for generations are conservative. Again, I don't know the exact comparison between the registered voters from 2000 to 2010.
Socially conservative, Nita. Conservative Democrats, but economically in favor of preserving entitlement programs. For minorities in need of assistance, this is often the immovable issue, the one that trumps all other social platform Republicans espouse that those who are voting might find otherwise palatable. The Republicans desire to cut or remove these programs is processed by Hispanic Democrats as tacit racism or xenophobia.
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Old 05-08-2012, 03:12 PM
 
Location: 3219'03.7"N 10643'55.9"W
8,114 posts, read 17,281,853 times
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Originally Posted by GPL Enterprises View Post
All I can say is, Us New Mexicans are a fickle bunch when it comes to national politics. Locally the party line prevails, but the same cannot be said with presidential elections. One thing I am willing to bet is if the unemployment numbers and the price of fuel haven't dropped significantly by the fourth of July, then all four four corner states will slide red in November.
I'm not so sure about this. It seems as though from 1992, going forward, race, demographics have really mattered when it comes to presidential elections. If you look at what are considered 'reliably blue' states today, those states came into prominence in 1992 with the Bill Clinton election. For instance, New Jersey, New York, Maryland, California, states that used to vote for both parties, became 'one party' states, first, on the national presidential level, and now, almost, on the state level as well. New Mexico falls into this category, having gone blue in 1992, and only MARGINALLY won by Bush in 2004, before swinging back 15% for the Democrats in the last presidential election. The prevailing trend, as I see it, is that minorities have associated racism in the Republican party since the early 90s, and this was driven home during the 1994 mid-term elections, into 1995, when the Republicans were painted as racists. The code words are 'tax cuts' and 'cuts in entitlements'. Those two messages, assimilated by minorities that are not as prosperous as whites, are processed as government taking from them and giving to others. And, conversely, prosperous white voters are voting the other way (Republican) for the opposite reason, because they process tax increases and an increase in entitlements as government taking from them, and giving to others. Politics has, more than ever, over the last 20 years, has been about 'who gets what', and racial politics are front and center in this paradigm. That's why New Mexico, as a state largely populated by Hispanics, who, as a percentage of the whole, earn less $$ than whites and Asian Americans, will vote for a party that seems more economically palatable to them. Incidentally, this is why I believe that California is now a one party state, on every single level of government. New Mexico, as I read the demographic tea leaves, is headed in the same direction.
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Old 05-08-2012, 05:03 PM
N8!
 
2,409 posts, read 4,577,926 times
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My family has lived in the NM area for over 300 yrs, and we don't fit the stereotypes presented in this thread.
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Old 05-08-2012, 06:19 PM
 
Location: northern Vermont - previously NM, WA, & MA
9,394 posts, read 18,234,823 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GPL Enterprises View Post
In the end this election will come down to one thing and I quote "It's the economy stupid" (not intended to be an insult to you Mike). Granted Mit Romney will still have to sell himself and his plan to repair the economy to the people of NM an the nation as a whole for that matter. Gore barely carried the state in 2000 at a time he should have been able to ride a booming economy. Kerry lost to Bush in 2004 simply because he wasn't a viable candidate. 2008 was obviously a referendum on the Bush White House but McCain was at best a marginal candidate himself. But the last election indicates a dissatisfied electorate, Three years of Trillion dollar plus deficits and extremely high unemployment is not an ideal platform to run on for re-election.
On the flipside I see the same scenario with Romney in this 2012 presidential election. I Imagine many republicans may sit this election out or vote for Romney in spite of Obama. Otherwise given the economic demographics of this state I don't see many here pasionately backing a candidate like Romney. I can't correlate a strong connection between Gov. Martinez and Romney. I've always voted democrat and I'm orginally from Massachusetts and I like Gov. Martinez but I can't stand Romney. Yes I do think New Mexico can be a swing state given the right conditions, though I don't see that working in Romney's favor here.
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Old 05-08-2012, 06:30 PM
 
Location: Bella Vista, Ark
71,683 posts, read 83,258,368 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mike0421 View Post
Socially conservative, Nita. Conservative Democrats, but economically in favor of preserving entitlement programs. For minorities in need of assistance, this is often the immovable issue, the one that trumps all other social platform Republicans espouse that those who are voting might find otherwise palatable. The Republicans desire to cut or remove these programs is processed by Hispanic Democrats as tacit racism or xenophobia.
yes, you are right; many are socially conservatives but also lean toward fiscally liberals, different from many Republicans. The other issue, even though many of the old Hispanic families do vote Republican, there are those, who vote Democrat because they have always done this. Believe me, I know, my husband ran for public offiice twice.
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