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Obama leads Romney by 5, 45% to 40.....with 15% undecided. For an incumbent well under 50%...that is good news.....for Mitt.
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Regardless of female support, Obama's overall support in Michigan is well below 50 percent. As an incumbent, Czuba said, that indicates the Democrat-leaning state may be in play come November
He leads with women by 12 points...not an insurmountable number.
I know. This is why - given that MI is typically considered at least a Democratic-leaning state and not a swing state - I think this poll is bad news for Obama and good news for Romney (though I worry a lot about third party candidates).
This is not the only recent poll in Michigan that has shown that it could be competitive.
In this one Obama was up only by 4, with 10% undecided:
Undecided voters tend to ultimately vote for the non-incumbent in very high numbers. That's why I think these swing states are much more in play for Romney than polls suggest. I don't know why I should spend time trying to convince the left that Romney could very well pull this election off (and I think is odds are increasing by the day), I should just let them get complacent
I know. This is why - given that MI is not a swing state - I think this poll is bad news for Obama and good news for Romney (though I worry a lot about third party candidates).
This is not the only recent poll in Michigan that has shown that it could be competitive.
In this one Obama was up only by 4, with 10% undecided:
It's hard to say to what extent "home-state advantage" is at play, but as I said during the primaries there are just not that many voters in Michigan old enough to have been following politics at the time of the Romney governorship, and that wasn't even Mitt himself as governor, it was his dad. Mitt left the state once he turned 18 and didn't go back
Undecided voters tend to ultimately vote for the non-incumbent in very high numbers. That's why I think these swing states are much more in play for Romney than polls suggest. I don't know why I should spend time trying to convince the left that Romney could very well pull this election off (and I think is odds are increasing by the day), I should just let them get complacent
And don't forget, we must always look at the party ID numbers to gauge if the pollsters are fudging the numbers in obama's favor to make it look like he has more support than he actually does.
This poll does not have the party ID number they used, which is suspicious, which probably means the survey is skewed toward the democrats, which means Romney is doing better than this shows.
Remember, MI went RED in 2010, controlled by the GOP.
Yes, they went Red in 2010, but the 9-point party ID advantage for the Democrats is probably about right for Michigan.
I'm very happy about this poll and I think it - when you also consider other polling - does indicate that MI is at least somewhat in play, but I wouldn't say that a 9-point party ID advantage for the Democrats in MI is too large at all.
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