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Old 05-17-2012, 02:17 PM
 
10,092 posts, read 8,167,466 times
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Originally Posted by box_of_zip_disks View Post
Which brings it back to Fisher winning in Nebraska. Bruning and Stenburg attacking each other brought down their numbers and created an opportunity for Fisher.
Some of that certainly, but it goes deeper. They really went after each other, but the concerns on both candidates were already there. Bruning started out as a liberal democrat in college and did some big shifts right over the years--some people think he flip flopped to win, although I think he's had a very consistent evolution as a conservative over time. People also raised questions about how he made a fortune through private investments while he was working as attorney general, and he gave some conflicting answers that hurt him. Stenburg runs and loses all the time--he's more of a radical conservative, and that doesn't play well here. Fisher ran right down the middle between them, and she ran a positive campaign, with a big infusion of cash/air time at the end. People are tired of the attack ads--they want real answers--and she won it because she seemed the more genuine and common sense of the three. She's a newcomer to statewide races, so she doesn't have any baggage, but that also makes her an unknown entity. She's an unproven candidate--no one is sure how she'll hold up with the pressure of a larger campaign, and if she'll have the experience to avoid major gaffs. No one is really clear how she stands on issues--that was why it was such a huge shock that she won. I think it was an anti politician vote--she's a rancher vs. a lawyer. People out here for the most part just want reps to go to DC and use some common sense. Jeff Fortenberry (congressman) wound up changing his position on the debt ceiling and holding lots of town halls out here because conservatives in Nebraska thought it was insane to ruin our credit rating. BS will get you in trouble faster than almost anything.

If Fischer turns out to be a right wing radical, or if she tries to play the race that way against Kerry, she will provide a real opening for Kerry to take it. He would have had zero chance against Bruning. If she stays center/right and comes across as a nice, rational person, she'll probably win it.

Last edited by mb1547; 05-17-2012 at 02:40 PM..
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Old 05-17-2012, 02:33 PM
 
Location: The Cascade Foothills
10,942 posts, read 10,205,463 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by box_of_zip_disks View Post

Plus going after religion opens up Romney to a third party attack on all the mormon stuff. My guess is the Romney campaign will try to stop it but given the rules on campaign colluding with PACs how effective they'll be remains to be seen. Gotta admit it'll be hilarious if Citizens United, which was designed specifically to get big money guys like Romney elected, winds up backfiring by letting any crazy old coot with too much money air pet grievance ads which turn off the public.
This is what I'm thinking. So far, Mittens' religion has been pretty much off limits, but if they want to open the door into the religious stuff, then it will probably be "gloves off."

Update: Coincidentally, while I was typing the above comments, the news just said that there has been a change of plans - Rickets has decided not to bring Reverend Wright into the campaign. LOL
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Old 05-17-2012, 02:50 PM
 
10,092 posts, read 8,167,466 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by box_of_zip_disks View Post
Exactly. Obama's unknown numbers are near zero, which lowers the threshold at which negative ads run into diminishing returns. Rev. Wright, birther stuff, etc. isn't going to convince anyone who's on the fence, hence why Romney's campaign will only stick to attacking Obama's record.

Plus going after religion opens up Romney to a third party attack on all the mormon stuff. My guess is the Romney campaign will try to stop it but given the rules on campaign colluding with PACs how effective they'll be remains to be seen. Gotta admit it'll be hilarious if Citizens United, which was designed specifically to get big money guys like Romney elected, winds up backfiring by letting any crazy old coot with too much money air pet grievance ads which turn off the public.
You're exactly right. Romney can win this if he sticks to the economy, but there's a big danger that the rest could be a major turn off to all but the people who would never vote democratic anyway. Pete Ricketts--his son (I called him Steve up above--I'm braindead) tried to run a very, very hard far right campaign here a few years back against Ben Nelson and he only took 36% of the vote, even after he outspent Nelson 10/1. I think the old man might be a little tone deaf--you're right--he may hurt more than he helps.
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Old 05-17-2012, 02:54 PM
 
10,092 posts, read 8,167,466 times
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Originally Posted by Cinebar View Post
This is what I'm thinking. So far, Mittens' religion has been pretty much off limits, but if they want to open the door into the religious stuff, then it will probably be "gloves off."

Update: Coincidentally, while I was typing the above comments, the news just said that there has been a change of plans - Rickets has decided not to bring Reverend Wright into the campaign. LOL
The Romney camp probably nearly stroked out over it, and convinced him to call it off.
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Old 05-17-2012, 02:59 PM
 
4,911 posts, read 3,414,634 times
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Originally Posted by Trace21230 View Post
Great news. Fischer is almost a certain winner over Kerrey, which means we will have another strong conservative woman in the Senate.

More ammunition to fight with against the Democrats' fictititous "war on women" talking lie.
Rachel Maddow Recaps The GOP’s WAR On Women State By State | 3CHICSPOLITICO
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Old 05-17-2012, 03:02 PM
 
4,911 posts, read 3,414,634 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by box_of_zip_disks View Post
Speaking of which, looks like he's also gonna bring back Rev. Wright too in the general campaign. That ought to be fun.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/17/us...bama.html?_r=1
In other words they're going to lie. Why is that news??
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Old 05-17-2012, 07:55 PM
 
Location: The Cascade Foothills
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Originally Posted by mb1547 View Post
The Romney camp probably nearly stroked out over it, and convinced him to call it off.
I believe this is exactly what happened.
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Old 05-17-2012, 08:30 PM
 
140 posts, read 93,952 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mb1547 View Post
The Romney camp probably nearly stroked out over it, and convinced him to call it off.
I was listening to Michael Savage when the news broke about Romney saying he wasn't going to go after Obama. Savage stroked out explaining that he just lost the election for not being agressive like McCain was. Savage went on to say the Romney is being controlled by McCains managers from 08 and they want Obama to have a 2nd term. He was livid and now Mark Levin is basically saying the same thing on radio right now.
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Old 05-17-2012, 09:34 PM
 
10,092 posts, read 8,167,466 times
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Originally Posted by Lawyer Disciple View Post
I was listening to Michael Savage when the news broke about Romney saying he wasn't going to go after Obama. Savage stroked out explaining that he just lost the election for not being agressive like McCain was. Savage went on to say the Romney is being controlled by McCains managers from 08 and they want Obama to have a 2nd term. He was livid and now Mark Levin is basically saying the same thing on radio right now.
Just because they're saying it doesn't mean they're right.
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Old 05-17-2012, 10:02 PM
 
Location: Chicagoland
41,325 posts, read 44,773,541 times
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Nothing that comes out of her mouth is truth, nothing but propaganda.

Fischer is up 18 already over Kerry. She is a experienced legislator.

Kerry has little chance of winning this seat.

Put it in the GOP column....3 to go.
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