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Old 05-24-2012, 11:07 AM
 
Location: Greater Washington, DC
1,347 posts, read 1,088,058 times
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It may seem like an uphill battle, but the trend is on his side. Interesting read though on Romney's path to 270. People talk about Obama's EV advantage, but I see that completely flipping within a couple months (or at least reaching the point where it's an equally difficult/easy path for Obama or Romney tow in those states.

I know the liberals on here will agree with this since last month they showed us that they think Karl Rove's opinion on Romney's prospects is very relevant and important to them. Interesting read either way.

Rove: Romney's Roads to the White House - WSJ.com
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Old 05-24-2012, 11:20 AM
 
10,854 posts, read 9,297,960 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tmsterp View Post
It may seem like an uphill battle, but the trend is on his side. Interesting read though on Romney's path to 270. People talk about Obama's EV advantage, but I see that completely flipping within a couple months (or at least reaching the point where it's an equally difficult/easy path for Obama or Romney tow in those states.

I know the liberals on here will agree with this since last month they showed us that they think Karl Rove's opinion on Romney's prospects is very relevant and important to them. Interesting read either way.

Rove: Romney's Roads to the White House - WSJ.com
The entire premise of 3-2-1 is based on long shots.

Same-sex marriage is legal in both Massachusetts and New Hampshire. Despite Mitt Romney being governor of Massachusetts he is NOT considered a native son. The fact he basically used his sons address in Massachusetts while maintaining homes in New Hampshire, California and other states DOES NOT HELP.

Rove's piece also points out that Romney would also have the "Great Lakes" route to 270. I live in Michigan, Romney is still derided in Conservative newspapers like the Detroit News for attempting to take credit for auto bailout and the resurgent auto industry. People here have a LONG MEMORY about Mitt's New York Times editorial "Let Detroit Go Bankrupt". He may to well in the western and northern part of the state that are rural and conservative but they are not the most densely populated areas.

Basically Rove's piece is based on a lot of "What ifs".
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Old 05-24-2012, 11:49 AM
 
Location: Sonoran Desert
39,072 posts, read 51,199,205 times
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Rove's 3-2-1 is really a wing and prayer. The article actually shows just how unlikely it is for Romney to pull this out.
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Old 05-24-2012, 11:49 AM
 
Location: Greater Washington, DC
1,347 posts, read 1,088,058 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JazzyTallGuy View Post
The entire premise of 3-2-1 is based on long shots.

Same-sex marriage is legal in both Massachusetts and New Hampshire. Despite Mitt Romney being governor of Massachusetts he is NOT considered a native son. The fact he basically used his sons address in Massachusetts while maintaining homes in New Hampshire, California and other states DOES NOT HELP.

Rove's piece also points out that Romney would also have the "Great Lakes" route to 270. I live in Michigan, Romney is still derided in Conservative newspapers like the Detroit News for attempting to take credit for auto bailout and the resurgent auto industry. People here have a LONG MEMORY about Mitt's New York Times editorial "Let Detroit Go Bankrupt". He may to well in the western and northern part of the state that are rural and conservative but they are not the most densely populated areas.

Basically Rove's piece is based on a lot of "What ifs".
Same with Obama. You can say "What if Romney wins VA" but you can also say "What if Obama wins VA"

My point is, with the way the polls are shaping up (you would expect, as always, for the incumbent to begin with an advantage and for the guy who just got out of a bruising primary to start with a disadvantage) the path to victory is becoming not much different for Romney or Obama. Idk what MA has to do with anything, I don't think Rove suggested he would win that. But Romney owns a town house in Belmont, so I'm not sure what you're blabbering about him not living in MA...
My bet is on Iowa, Though he is only down 4 in MI.

There's just as many what-ifs for Obama as there are for Romney... Look at the way the polls are trending in swing states
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Old 05-24-2012, 11:59 AM
 
10,854 posts, read 9,297,960 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tmsterp View Post
Same with Obama. You can say "What if Romney wins VA" but you can also say "What if Obama wins VA"

My point is, with the way the polls are shaping up (you would expect, as always, for the incumbent to begin with an advantage and for the guy who just got out of a bruising primary to start with a disadvantage) the path to victory is becoming not much different for Romney or Obama. Idk what MA has to do with anything, I don't think Rove suggested he would win that. But Romney owns a town house in Belmont, so I'm not sure what you're blabbering about him not living in MA...
My bet is on Iowa, Though he is only down 4 in MI.

There's just as many what-ifs for Obama as there are for Romney... Look at the way the polls are trending in swing states
Sorry as long as President Obama has California, New York, Illinois, as Democratic strongholds he has an advantage.

The Republican path to victory depends on cobbling together smaller Southern and Rocky Mountain states in terms of electoral votes around the their crown jewel, Texas. Then they have to go after takes that traditionally lean Democratic in the Midwest. It takes more time and effort and more things have to go right. The bottom line is states that can go either way are critical like Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, and Virginia are critical to both parties but MORE CRITICAL to Mitt Romney. Taking a state away from somebody is always easier than trying to keep it.
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Old 05-24-2012, 12:00 PM
 
Location: Riverside
4,088 posts, read 4,386,289 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tmsterp View Post
Same with Obama. You can say "What if Romney wins VA" but you can also say "What if Obama wins VA"

My point is, with the way the polls are shaping up (you would expect, as always, for the incumbent to begin with an advantage and for the guy who just got out of a bruising primary to start with a disadvantage) the path to victory is becoming not much different for Romney or Obama. Idk what MA has to do with anything, I don't think Rove suggested he would win that. But Romney owns a town house in Belmont, so I'm not sure what you're blabbering about him not living in MA...
My bet is on Iowa, Though he is only down 4 in MI.

There's just as many what-ifs for Obama as there are for Romney... Look at the way the polls are trending in swing states
Although Romney has houses and historic connections in several states, he doesn't seem to actually be "from" anywhere in particular. I think it's one of the creepier things about Mitt, his bland persona, his blank aspect (to put it psychologically). He lacks (or conceals) a real identity, so that he can "be" whatever and whoever he needs to be to attract votes. The only time he seems genuine is when he's gushing over billionaire's goodies.

That being said, it is going to be a very, VERY close election. Not sure what that says about us.
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Old 05-24-2012, 12:04 PM
 
10,854 posts, read 9,297,960 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gurbie View Post
Although Romney has houses and historic connections in several states, he doesn't seem to actually be "from" anywhere in particular. I think it's one of the creepier things about Mitt, his bland persona, his blank aspect (to put it psychologically). He lacks (or conceals) a real identity, so that he can "be" whatever and whoever he needs to be to attract votes. The only time he seems genuine is when he's gushing over billionaire's goodies.

That being said, it is going to be a very, VERY close election. Not sure what that says about us.
It says we are a deeply divided country that is going through significant demographic changes.
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Old 05-24-2012, 12:19 PM
 
10,854 posts, read 9,297,960 times
Reputation: 3122
Quote:
Originally Posted by tmsterp View Post
Same with Obama. You can say "What if Romney wins VA" but you can also say "What if Obama wins VA"

My point is, with the way the polls are shaping up (you would expect, as always, for the incumbent to begin with an advantage and for the guy who just got out of a bruising primary to start with a disadvantage) the path to victory is becoming not much different for Romney or Obama. Idk what MA has to do with anything, I don't think Rove suggested he would win that. But Romney owns a town house in Belmont, so I'm not sure what you're blabbering about him not living in MA...
My bet is on Iowa, Though he is only down 4 in MI.

There's just as many what-ifs for Obama as there are for Romney... Look at the way the polls are trending in swing states
The bottom line is Romney has got to win Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida to have a legitimate shot at winning the election. We can speculate all we want but at the end of the day that's where the election is going to be won and lost.
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Old 05-24-2012, 12:32 PM
 
Location: Long Island, NY
19,792 posts, read 13,941,962 times
Reputation: 5661
Can one trust anything written by Karl Rove?
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Old 05-24-2012, 12:47 PM
 
Location: Texas
38,859 posts, read 25,521,957 times
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Default Romney's 3-2-1 Path to victory

Romney has as good a shot at the White House as Bob Dole had.
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