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The GOP for reasons I'd rather not post always win the Vet vote. Not this vet though. Unless romney can take MI or OH or WI he can have VA and NC and still lose.
Mitt Romney problem is basically this; it's easier for President Obama to hold states like Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin among others than it is for Mitt to take them. It takes more time, effort and money to come from behind in the game of politics.
As long as the Democrats control states like California, New York, Illinois and others they have built in advantage in terms of electoral votes. The only state the Republicans firmly control with a high number of electoral votes is Texas. Then they have built around that with small populations states in the Rocky Mountains and the South. Now granted Mitt Romney may have some success in terms of taking North Carolina or Florida but it's just not going to be enough to get him to 270. His personality and his policies limit his appeal.
Mitt Romney problem is basically this; it's easier for President Obama to hold states like Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin among others than it is for Mitt to take them. It takes more time, effort and money to come from behind in the game of politics.
As long as the Democrats control states like California, New York, Illinois and others they have built in advantage in terms of electoral votes. The only state the Republicans firmly control with a high number of electoral votes is Texas. Then they have built around that with small populations states in the Rocky Mountains and the South. Now granted Mitt Romney may have some success in terms of taking North Carolina or Florida but it's just not going to be enough to get him to 270. His personality and his policies limit his appeal.
The only problem with your scenario is that you ignore the fact that Oblama's first failed term limits his appeal far more than Mitt's personality (which is just fine) or his policies (which cannot possibly be worse than Oblama's).
I'm a Veteran, but not a mouth breathing ditto head, so I proudly support Barack Obama. Mittens has aligned himself with the same crowd who brought us the ill advised invasion of Iraq. He appears to be a chicken hawk, who when given the opportunity to serve our country, bailed.
I'm in the minority on this one. Obama! Being a vet who understands what it is like, I want the guy who is least likely to start another idiotic war like Vietnam or Iraq. Obama is the better choice of the two, though Paul has the best policy in that regard. I also don't like the fact that Mitt used his religion to avoid service.
The only problem with your scenario is that you ignore the fact that Oblama's first failed term limits his appeal far more than Mitt's personality (which is just fine) or his policies (which cannot possibly be worse than Oblama's).
Sorry but your entitled to your opinion but there simply aren't enough people that agree with you.
Mitt Romney has a ceiling and that ceiling is outside of older White males he's not really that popular. The more he panders to that group the more he alienates everybody else.
You and the other Obama lovers have the most pathetic sense of entitlement. A majority of Americans do not approve of the job Obama is doing and a majority of Americans do not feel he deserves to be re-elected. I know that's hard for you all to grasp. Sure, he may manage to get re-elected but it's certainly not for certain. No president with approval ratings as low as his has ever been re-elected.
Sorry but your entitled to your opinion but there simply aren't enough people that agree with you.
Yes, there are. Obama's approval remains below 50% in the vast majority of polling - both nationally and in states like Ohio, Virginia, Florida, and even Pennsylvania.
Quote:
Originally Posted by JazzyTallGuy
Mitt Romney has a ceiling and that ceiling is outside of older White males he's not really that popular. The more he panders to that group the more he alienates everybody else.
Incumbents basically have a ceiling of their approval rating - or actually generally a few points below their approval rating - when looking at the percentage of the vote they receive. And that's among those who actually vote. Republicans/Republican-leaning independents are more likely to vote. (Even in 2004, with a strong anti-war sentiment and relatively high turnout among Democrats/Democratic-leaning independents, Bush's approval was only about 51% in most polling around the time of the election but 53% according to exit polls of voters. He got only about 51% of the vote...he underperformed his approval as most incumbents do.)
So Obama is the one with more of a ceiling. His approval is stuck at 47%-48% - likely closer to 45%-46% among those who will actually vote. Can it come up? Sure. Is it likely to come up significantly before the election? Probably not. It's just as likely to go down. It all depends on how the economy does and on the campaign. And before you start with the demographic bullsh*t...his approval is basically around what you would expect his percentage of the vote to be among blacks and Hispanics (and people who identify as "liberal"). As far as the campaign, the Romney campaign + the Super PAC's supporting him will likely have significantly more money than the Obama campaign + the Super PAC's supporting him. If this is the case, which is very, very likely, it will be the first time an incumbent president has actually had a disadvantage as far as campaign funding.
Back to demographics - maybe you should read the graphs you post. Romney leads even among 18-29 year old whites. And, given that he leads by 10 or more in every age group of whites 30 or older, I'm sure that he leads with white women in each one of these groups as well. So, while Romney may have a problem with minorities, he certainly does not have a problem with young and middle-aged white men or with white women. Obama has problems with these groups.
More to counteract the idea that "no one" likes Romney his favorability per Gallup is 50% with his unfavorability at 41%. That means his net favorability is +9%. Obama's favorability is 52%, while his unfavorability is 46%, making his net favorability +6%. So Romney's net favorability is higher than Obama's.
Basically over one-third of Republicans are NOT HAPPY with Mitt as the nominee.
In 2008, a lot of Hillary suppoters weren't happy with Obama as the nominee. This means nothing...in May. Furthermore, even if they're not happy with him, they will turn out to vote Obama out in large numbers. The same Republicans who dislike Romney the most HATE Obama.
Last edited by afoigrokerkok; 05-28-2012 at 08:53 AM..
You and the other Obama lovers have the most pathetic sense of entitlement. A majority of Americans do not approve of the job Obama is doing and a majority of Americans do not feel he deserves to be re-elected. I know that's hard for you all to grasp. Sure, he may manage to get re-elected but it's certainly not for certain. No president with approval ratings as low as his has ever been re-elected.
You know absolutely nothing about me. Sorry bust your bubble but I joined the Army out of high school worked my way through college and invested my money and then continued my education.
Save you 'entitlement' B.S. for somebody else.
These are George W. Bush job approval ratings for each year he held office.
PRINCETON, NJ -- President George W. Bush's job approval rating has dropped to 28%, the lowest of his administration. Bush's approval is lower than that of any president since World War II, with the exceptions of Jimmy Carter (who had a low point of 28% in 1979), and Richard Nixon and Harry Truman, who suffered ratings in the low- to mid-20% range in the last years of their administrations.
Currently President Obama is around 49% in his fourth year. He's really not that far from where George W. Bush was when he got re-elected.
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