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Old 06-06-2012, 01:16 PM
 
Location: South Carolina
8,145 posts, read 6,512,957 times
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RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Pennsylvania: Romney vs. Obama



RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Obama vs. Romney Create Your Own Electoral Map
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Old 06-06-2012, 01:20 PM
 
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I've lost faith in all polls at this point. Will I keep an eye on them for reference? Sure. But I think there's enough objective evidence out there to suggest that polling is an art, not a science. The Walker recall emphasized this point pretty clearly.
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Old 06-06-2012, 01:23 PM
 
Location: North America
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Basically, it's moot until October. There's a lot of time between now and the November elections.
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Old 06-06-2012, 01:24 PM
 
25,619 posts, read 36,563,976 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AeroGuyDC View Post
I've lost faith in all polls at this point. Will I keep an eye on them for reference? Sure. But I think there's enough objective evidence out there to suggest that polling is an art, not a science. The Walker recall emphasized this point pretty clearly.
The OP's candidate got teabagged big time in WI. Sour grapes or teabags. Lets just wait until next weeks polls.
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Old 06-06-2012, 01:25 PM
 
Location: Texas
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Obama is at 48% in the average of the polls you linked to... that is not good for an incumbent. Furthermore - even worse news for Obama - his approval rating is below 50% in the vast majority of PA polls, if not every PA poll I've seen that asks whether respondents approve or disapprove of how he is handling his job.

That being said - no Republican has won Pennsylvania in a presidential election since 1988. Romney does not need to win PA to win the election. The fact that Obama is at 48% in the poll average and his approval is below 50% in what is a Democratic-leaning state is very bad news for Obama.
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Old 06-06-2012, 01:25 PM
 
Location: South Carolina
8,145 posts, read 6,512,957 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AeroGuyDC View Post
I've lost faith in all polls at this point. Will I keep an eye on them for reference? Sure. But I think there's enough objective evidence out there to suggest that polling is an art, not a science. The Walker recall emphasized this point pretty clearly.
All the polls I saw had walker winning and he won. So why would it be different for Obama?
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Old 06-06-2012, 01:26 PM
 
Location: South Carolina
8,145 posts, read 6,512,957 times
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RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - General Election: Romney vs. Obama
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Old 06-06-2012, 01:27 PM
 
Location: South Carolina
8,145 posts, read 6,512,957 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bulldogdad View Post
The OP's candidate got teabagged big time in WI. Sour grapes or teabags. Lets just wait until next weeks polls.
I knew walker was going to win. All the polls showed it.
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Old 06-06-2012, 01:30 PM
 
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Pennsylvania is hard for Republicans to win. I'd say it's much harder to win than Wisconsin.
Saying that,Obama HAS to win PA. He has no choice.
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Old 06-06-2012, 01:32 PM
 
Location: Texas
14,975 posts, read 16,413,606 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by enemy country View Post
All the polls I saw had walker winning and he won. So why would it be different for Obama?
The polls showed him at over 50% and his approval at 50%+. Also, the poll average showed Walker up by over 6 points. The poll average (nationally, I'm not talking about PA specifically) has Obama up by ~2 points.

Walker won by a larger margin than most polls showed even in a very high turnout election. Republicans/Republican-leaning independents are more likely to turn out than Democrats/Democrat-leaning independents, so high turnout elections would usually mean better results for Democrats. Even with the high turnout, Walker still won by a larger margin than most polls showed.

Finally, you are comparing polls in the few days and weeks before an election and polls for an election FIVE months away - polls will change one way or the other between now and the election. The polls could look more favorable to Romney or they could look more favorable to Obama several months from now.
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