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2008 saw a larger than normal Democrat turn out and a not so special Republican turn out. This poll has the Democrats polled at +2 and Republicans -2. Add them together and that is +4 spread for Obama.
It is true that Blacks are under represented based on 2008 participation levels +3, but not for 2004 levels. I think the party ID skew is more significant for obvious reason.
I think you'd have to agree on the following:
#1 Michigan is in play.
#2 Romney has momentum in the state for Obama to have won it by 16% and now two polls showing it a statistical tie.
#3 Either Obama or his advisers realize that the state is in play, based on his frequent campaign style stops in the state, him and his PACs spending money here, and Obama getting the 2 US Senators to make robo calls and host events on his behalf.
#4 In 2008 Obama won the 3 states that share a land border with Michigan: Wisconsin, Indiana, and Ohio...Obama is now in a fight to try to retain all 3 of those as well - as he is under polling his 2008 performance in each state.
I do believe the state will be closer than 2008, I don't believe its competitive however. Yes two polls have showed it neck and neck, however Epic has a VERY eratic polling history (had McCain up 4 around the same point in 2008, among other issues), and this latest poll showing over 80% of voters over the age of 51 is the most asinine thing I have ever seen in a poll.
Did you know that Detroit did go bankrupt. Managed bankruptcy rarely leads to large companies not existing. Don't fall for the Democratic word games to try and fool you.
Your hero trashed BO's auto industry bailout when it was being implemented back in '09 (http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/181102/bad-worse/mitt-romney#) ... then when the CLUELESS DOPE saw how successful it was, he actually (and unbelievably) tried to take credit last month for the industry's comeback.
LMAO
$Willie is a FRAUD of the highest order who will say anything to get elected.
You're clearly beyond hope, but I suspect a majority of voters in both MI and OH will throw this joker out on his head in Nov...
Michigan could be in play despite something like a 17-point Obama win last time, simply because the Romney family is still remembered here. Relatively redder (than Michigan) states like Iowa and Nevada are trending Obama, however. We'll have to see how the polls continue to develop.
Your hero trashed BO's auto industry bailout when it was being implemented back in '09 (http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/181102/bad-worse/mitt-romney#) ... then when the CLUELESS DOPE saw how successful it was, he actually (and unbelievably) tried to take credit last month for the industry's comeback.
LMAO
$Willie is a FRAUD of the highest order who will say anything to get elected.
Here's what you don't get. The bailout did NOT work by itself. The companies had to file for bankruptcy (Chapter 11...NOT Chapter 7) which is what Romney advocated in the first place.
Michigan could be in play despite something like a 17-point Obama win last time, simply because the Romney family is still remembered here. Relatively redder (than Michigan) states like Iowa and Nevada are trending Obama, however. We'll have to see how the polls continue to develop.
Iowa and Nevada look like tossups - especially Iowa.
We'll see. That Rasmussen Poll has the smallest sample size, in fact 1/3rd the size of the poll I reference. Even if the Rasmussen Poll is correct (and Obama is wrong - who is working in the state now), 8% is a far cry from the 16% he won it by.
Your hero trashed BO's auto industry bailout when it was being implemented back in '09 (http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/181102/bad-worse/mitt-romney#) ... then when the CLUELESS DOPE saw how successful it was, he actually (and unbelievably) tried to take credit last month for the industry's comeback.
LMAO
$Willie is a FRAUD of the highest order who will say anything to get elected.
You're clearly beyond hope, but I suspect a majority of voters in both MI and OH will throw this joker out on his head in Nov...
I think you fail to understand that many people are upset with Union power - even in Michigan. Obama DID put GM and Chrysler through bankruptcy - AFTER the Union got a sweetheart deal and the bond holders (people with pensions and 401Ks) were ripped off.
Many of GM's problems still exist. We didn't fix the problems, we just gave them a mountain of money.
Michigan could be in play despite something like a 17-point Obama win last time, simply because the Romney family is still remembered here. Relatively redder (than Michigan) states like Iowa and Nevada are trending Obama, however. We'll have to see how the polls continue to develop.
Iowa is a tossup and there are some in the Obama camp ready to write it off. The demographics there don't work well for them. Also this latest stunt with illegals and gay marriage will probably move the dial in Romney's favor a few points.
Nevada seems to be a good one for Obama but I wonder about the polls coming out there and the sampling of Mormons. If the polls are under sampling Mormons than the race there is tighter than advertised.
Quote:
That 26% figure is important because, by our calculations at Gallup, 5.6% of the adult population in Nevada is Mormon. Mormons are highly likely to be Republicans, so we find that about 10% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents in Nevada are Mormons, and 9% of basic Republicans are Mormon. This is based on a combined sample of 5,862 Nevadans Gallup interviewed in 2009 and 2010.
Michigan will be tough for Romney he is going to have to campaign hard. He should focus his efforts in the Detroit suburbs, with Detroit hurtling towards insolvency they'll have a close to home example of how Dem policies can cost them personally.
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