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Old 07-19-2012, 03:03 PM
 
Location: Moose Jaw, in between the Moose's butt and nose.
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Just a simple question. Please answer with actual facts, instead of trash talk. Seems to me, they were pretty similar, which gives me, personally, hope for the result I want to see. Looks about 50/50 though (Obama getting reelected).
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Old 07-19-2012, 03:26 PM
 
Location: Illinois
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RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - General Election: McCain vs. Obama

He had a pretty decent lead around this time.
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Old 07-19-2012, 03:34 PM
 
Location: Moose Jaw, in between the Moose's butt and nose.
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I don't know if he had a decent lead, but he was winning in most polls back then (Jul, 2008). He's still winning in most polls now, but, sadly (for me) not by as much as not as many polls.
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Old 07-19-2012, 04:14 PM
 
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About +3-5 Obama around then; he's around +1 now.
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Old 07-19-2012, 04:22 PM
 
Location: On the "Left Coast", somewhere in "the Land of Fruits & Nuts"
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Quote:
Originally Posted by beenhereandthere View Post
Just a simple question. Please answer with actual facts, instead of trash talk. Seems to me, they were pretty similar, which gives me, personally, hope for the result I want to see. Looks about 50/50 though (Obama getting reelected).
Dunno about compared to 2008, but the consensus appears to be that despite all the Bain attacks (and counter-attacks), their respective numbers seem to remain basically unchanged, at least so far.

Nate Silver, the famous pollster and analyst who runs the 538 site over at the NYT has a good take on it here, that seems to cut thru the "noise":

July 18: New Polls, but Little Change in Horse Race
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Old 07-19-2012, 04:45 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mateo45 View Post
Dunno about compared to 2008, but the consensus appears to be that despite all the Bain attacks (and counter-attacks), their respective numbers seem to remain basically unchanged, at least so far.

Nate Silver, the famous pollster and analyst who runs the 538 site over at the NYT has a good take on it here, that seems to cut thru the "noise":

July 18: New Polls, but Little Change in Horse Race
Polls are lagging indicators, and specific attack ads don't necessarily translate to performance. At best a loose correlation can be made between a sustained weeks long campaign if there's an obvious disparity in each candidate's presence. A further complication given national polling is ads aren't showing at the same rate equally across the country; swing states have more political ads per break than non-swing states, etc. Also, it's July; people are on vacation or otherwise barely paying attention to politics right now. It's background noise at best.
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Old 07-19-2012, 04:59 PM
 
Location: On the "Left Coast", somewhere in "the Land of Fruits & Nuts"
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Good point, we often forget about the "Summer" factor. And it'll also be interesting to get a better sense of what the "youth" vote looks like in September and October when a lot of the college kids are back, and after they've spent some time with their assorted friends and family (and vice-versa) during the summer.
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Old 07-19-2012, 06:02 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
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According to RCP, Obama's lead is currently 1.4 (avg of all recent polls), at this point in 08, the average of all polls showed Obama up 4.2.

RealClearPolitics - Election '12 vs. Election '08 Four Years Ago Today
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Old 07-19-2012, 07:39 PM
 
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Originally Posted by mateo45 View Post
Good point, we often forget about the "Summer" factor. And it'll also be interesting to get a better sense of what the "youth" vote looks like in September and October when a lot of the college kids are back, and after they've spent some time with their assorted friends and family (and vice-versa) during the summer.
Yeah in general it's a good idea to ignore polling until about mid-September.
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Old 07-19-2012, 07:40 PM
 
Location: Illinois
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Originally Posted by box_of_zip_disks View Post
Yeah in general it's a good idea to ignore polling until about mid-September.
This. People usually start paying attention when the conventions start and after Labor Day.
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