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Old 07-29-2012, 11:07 AM
 
Location: Fort Worth Texas
12,481 posts, read 10,182,424 times
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In 2008 Obama won 96% of the black vote. IMHO he will probably hold this group but does not really have any room to improve his numbers here.The question is will the turn out be as high as 2008. For even if he holds the percent will the turn out be the same

In 2008 Obama got 54% of young white voters. This group who is hot heavy with unemployment will more that likely not be as high this time around. Even if it drops to 50% it will leave Obama vulnerable

The president got 41% of white men vote I do not see this vote staying strong i see it falling to 35 %
Suburban voters split 50 -50 in 2008 I doubt Obama holds that tie
I think the Hispanic vote will split about the same with or without Rubio
The Jewish vote went to Obama he might carry that again but I am sure he has lost some support here
Gay and lesbian support will stay with Obama
I don't think he can win the same percent as he did in 2008 . As of this writing IMHO the electoral map favors Obama

Exit polls: How Obama won - David Paul Kuhn - POLITICO.com
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Old 07-29-2012, 11:12 AM
 
Location: NJ
23,308 posts, read 16,994,613 times
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Obama won a novelty election.

Any sembelence to typical predictive voting data is invalid.
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Old 07-29-2012, 11:22 AM
 
1,058 posts, read 1,154,662 times
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The one thing that isn't taken to account (at least from your excerpt) is what voter turnout will be. I can surely see Obama hanging onto the youth and the Hispanic support, but it really will depend on how many of them actually vote.
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