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Old 08-16-2012, 08:34 AM
 
Location: On the "Left Coast", somewhere in "the Land of Fruits & Nuts"
8,854 posts, read 10,424,045 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wxjay View Post
And that turnout will fade this election. I am nearly certain of that. If a historic turnout helped propel Obama to his win in 2008, then he will have to win with a less enthusiastic turnout. I am not saying that he cannot do it (in fact, if I had to put money on it right now, I would probably bet Obama would win), but it will be much tougher for him. He's already down 8 EVs from the last election due to the 2010 census, and he has lost NC and IN (26 EVs). Hence, he starts the 'game' with 34 fewer EVs already.

Then again, Obama would have to make more history. No President has ever been elected to a second term with a popular vote total less than what he won in his first election.
Even if Obama's youth support were to diminish, arguably that's more than offset by the Ryan pick shifting the senior vote even further to the Obama side (and seniors are way more apt to vote)!
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Old 08-16-2012, 09:12 AM
 
Location: Greensboro, NC USA
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wxjay View Post
Again, it is the new Congress that picks the President and Vice President. So, if this scenario were to occur (and I think the chances of that are <1%) then it will be the House and Senate delegation elected in the 2012 election that will be conducting the vote.
There is a good chance the democrats could take over the house. The GOP is not polling well in congress. A new liberal controlled house would select Obama. Talk about pissing the Tea Party off LOL
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Old 08-16-2012, 09:14 AM
 
395 posts, read 457,371 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gsoboi78 View Post
There is a good chance the democrats could take over the house. The GOP is not polling well in congress. A new liberal controlled house would select Obama.
No there isn't.
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Old 08-16-2012, 09:16 AM
 
Location: Greensboro, NC USA
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Quote:
Originally Posted by db77 View Post
No there isn't.
Have you seen the latest poll numbers in congressional districts. There is a good chance democrats could take back the house particularly with the medicare debate. If this happens and there is a tie, the new house would select Obama.
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Old 08-16-2012, 09:18 AM
 
Location: West Egg
2,160 posts, read 1,949,008 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gsoboi78 View Post
Most people don't realize a tie between Obama and Romney could be a likely scenario. Here is how it can happen. Basically If Obama wins the 2004 John Kerry states and win Ohio and New Mexico a tie would occur.
I don't think you understand the meaning of the word 'likely'. Possible? Certainly. Likely? No. Rather unlikely, actually.

And essentially irrelevant. A tie would mean a close election, which would mean the House wouldn't shift too much, which would mean the Republicans would almost certainly have enough House delegations to elect Romney. However, the Senate would probably be very close, meaning the Vice Presidency could go either way.
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Old 08-16-2012, 09:23 AM
 
Location: West Egg
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gsoboi78 View Post
There is a good chance the democrats could take over the house. The GOP is not polling well in congress. A new liberal controlled house would select Obama. Talk about pissing the Tea Party off LOL
It's possible, but I wouldn't call it a "good chance".

Aside from that, however, this thread postulates an Electoral College tie. And if the Presidential election is that close, it is almost certain that the Democrats will not win the House. The Presidential election and the House elections do not exist in isolation. If the Democrats were to win the House, that event would almost certainly be joined by President Obama being re-elected with 350+ Electoral College votes. Conversely, if the Presidential election is tied in the Electoral College, that event would almost certainly be joined by a House outcome that is largely static; either side might gain up to a handful of seats, but that is it.
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Old 08-16-2012, 09:27 AM
 
Location: State of Being
35,879 posts, read 77,226,441 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DCforever View Post
There are 8 tossup states. Romney has to win

FL, NC, VA and 22 more electoral votes from OH (18), NH (4), IA (6), CO (9) and NV (6).

The raw probability of that is low single digits.
NC is going GOP.
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Old 08-16-2012, 09:34 AM
 
Location: Greensboro, NC USA
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Green Onions View Post
It's possible, but I wouldn't call it a "good chance".

Aside from that, however, this thread postulates an Electoral College tie. And if the Presidential election is that close, it is almost certain that the Democrats will not win the House. The Presidential election and the House elections do not exist in isolation. If the Democrats were to win the House, that event would almost certainly be joined by President Obama being re-elected with 350+ Electoral College votes. Conversely, if the Presidential election is tied in the Electoral College, that event would almost certainly be joined by a House outcome that is largely static; either side might gain up to a handful of seats, but that is it.
Remember congressional elections are local and a lot of people don't vote straight tickets. For years NC voters always voted for a democratic governor and at the same time voted for the GOP presidential candidate. A tie in the presidential election would come down to one or two battleground states.
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Old 08-16-2012, 09:44 AM
 
Location: Norman, OK
3,478 posts, read 7,237,658 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gsoboi78 View Post
There is a good chance the democrats could take over the house. The GOP is not polling well in congress. A new liberal controlled house would select Obama. Talk about pissing the Tea Party off LOL
The only way the Democrats win a Congressional majority is to have conservative/Blue Dog Democrats elected. They will not be getting that in this election cycle, especially as even currently conservative members of the delegation (e.g., Senator Manchin) are distancing themselves from President Obama. Moreover, remember, more 'Red' states are gaining seats at the expense of seats from 'Blue' states (e.g., MA is losing a seat in the House, and UT is gaining 2 seats).

I think it is more likely than not that the GOP retain the House. The Senate is certainly up for grabs though. Tester, McCaskill, and Nelson of FL may be in trouble for re-election. Retirements by Conrad, Nelson of NE, Kohl, and Webb put more chances for the GOP to gain seats. Only 2 GOP seats are in trouble: Brown's seat, but even he is holding his own currently in MA against the liberal-favorite Warren, and Snowe's seat.
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Old 08-16-2012, 09:51 AM
 
Location: Greensboro, NC USA
6,152 posts, read 7,178,508 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wxjay View Post
The only way the Democrats win a Congressional majority is to have conservative/Blue Dog Democrats elected. They will not be getting that in this election cycle, especially as even currently conservative members of the delegation (e.g., Senator Manchin) are distancing themselves from President Obama. Moreover, remember, more 'Red' states are gaining seats at the expense of seats from 'Blue' states (e.g., MA is losing a seat in the House, and UT is gaining 2 seats).

I think it is more likely than not that the GOP retain the House. The Senate is certainly up for grabs though. Tester, McCaskill, and Nelson of FL may be in trouble for re-election. Retirements by Conrad, Nelson of NE, Kohl, and Webb put more chances for the GOP to gain seats. Only 2 GOP seats are in trouble: Brown's seat, but even he is holding his own currently in MA against the liberal-favorite Warren, and Snowe's seat.
The GOP only took back the house because of the Tea Party. Special congressional elections and primaries since then have shown that Tea Party candidates are losing. If the Tea Party doesn't show up at the polls like they did in 2010, a democratic take over of the house is possible. Add to the fact that Obama is on the ballot this cycle, there will be more engaged voters from the democratic party at the polls in November.
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