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Old 09-01-2012, 12:52 PM
 
5,037 posts, read 4,182,541 times
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Where are Milwaukee’s “missing” black voters? « Hot Air
Quote:
Are 60% of Milwaukee’s black voters from 2008 missing? That’s what a study from the New Organizing Institute claims, which estimates that as many as 160,000 black voters in the city from the last presidential election can no longer be found. Slate reports on this claim without any real skepticism or scrutiny, after noting NPR’s speculation that the housing crisis would cause Democrats more trouble in finding their voters
Quote:
Simply put, this is an absurd conclusion to reach. It starts with an assumption that the “voter file” used in this search was accurate, both in identifying African-American voters and in identifying legitimate registrations. It ends with the assumption that a voter who no longer lives in the same place in 2012 that he or she did in 2008 is somehow “missing.” And the result of this absurdity is the claim that 160,000 voters in a city population of only 594,833 — including non-voters — went “missing,” and no one noticed.
If this is actually true, then we have a perfect way to corroborate this claim. The 2008 election, where Barack Obama became the first African-American President, was generally agreed to boost participation among black voters around the nation. In Wisconsin, that demo accounted for 5% of the overall vote, according to exit polling. In the 2010 gubernatorial election, it was 4%. Unlike most other states, Wisconsin held a statewide election as well as a primary — the recall election of Scott Walker, Rebecca Kleefisch, and several state senators. In exit polling from the June election, black voters once again comprised 5% of the vote, up from 2010′s gubernatorial election.
Obama won Wisconsin handily in 2008 by 13 points in an election where 2,939,604 votes were cast; five percent of that would be 146,980 votes cast by African-American voters in the entire state. In the 2010 election, 2,133,244 votes were cast, 4% of which would have been 85,330. The recall election won by Walker had 2,516,065 votes cast — almost perfectly between the two — and five percent of that comes to 125,803. None of these remotely indicate that Milwaukee had 160,000 extra black voters to go missing in the first place. That’s more than the number of black voters who turned out statewide in 2008 in Obama’s first presidential election.
Quote:
Finally, let’s go to the best data of all — the Census Bureau. The state of Wisconsin’s population in the 2011 estimate was 5,711,767 people, of whom 6.5% identify as black. That’s a statewide total of 371,265 black adults and children, up from 2000′s 304,460 and 5.7%, and slightly higher than 2010′s 359,148 and 6.3% rather than declining. The city of Milwaukee’s population of 597,867 is 40% African-American, which comes to 239,147 adults and children. Assuming one child for every two adults, there would only be 157,837 African-American adults of voting age in the city altogether. In Milwaukee County, the population is 952,532, with 27% being African-American. That comes to 257,183 African-American adults and children (most of them live in the city itself, obviously), and using the same 2:1 ratio for adults to children, we get 169,741 voting-age-eligible adults.
In order to believe this survey, one would have to believe that every African-American adult had abandoned the city of Milwaukee, and nearly all from the county of Milwaukee, too, which demonstrates the absurdity of its conclusion. Furthermore, even if the claim were true, those voters would show up elsewhere — either elsewhere in Wisconsin, or elsewhere in the US. The percentage of black voters in Wisconsin exit polling from 2008 to 2012 should have cratered with that kind of exodus had it occurred, but instead it remained remarkably stable all the way through June of this year. The only conclusion is that the claim is absolutely and transparently nut
Weird. And people say we dont need stronger voter laws. Why do some not value your own votes by not wanting stronger voting laws?
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Old 09-01-2012, 01:43 PM
 
31,385 posts, read 31,051,757 times
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In order to believe this survey, one would have to believe that every African-American adult had abandoned the city of Milwaukee, and nearly all from the county of Milwaukee, too, which demonstrates the absurdity of its conclusion.
Well since you didn't post a link to the study, I had to go with the Slate story which doesn't report that anyone left Milwaukee but rather they no longer reside where they did in 2008.
Based on those results, the New Organizing Institute, a Washington-based best-practices lab for lefty field operations, extrapolated that nearly 160,000 African-American voters in Milwaukee were no longer reachable at their last documented address — representing 41 percent of the city’s 2008 electorate.
Three-fifths of Milwaukee's black voters have vanished without a trace.


And all of this is based upon a data based purchased from a commercial vendor, not the official voting rolls.
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Old 09-07-2012, 12:08 PM
 
44,575 posts, read 43,103,689 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BucsLose View Post
Where are Milwaukee’s “missing” black voters? « Hot Air






Weird. And people say we dont need stronger voter laws. Why do some not value your own votes by not wanting stronger voting laws?
Simple. Ever hear of the grandfather clause? Stronger voter laws seem very reminiscent of Jim Crow laws for some people.
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Old 09-07-2012, 12:38 PM
 
16,553 posts, read 11,053,156 times
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Originally Posted by green_mariner View Post
Simple. Ever hear of the grandfather clause? Stronger voter laws seem very reminiscent of Jim Crow laws for some people.
Who cares what their opinion is. The facts say otherwise.
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Old 09-07-2012, 02:24 PM
 
15,849 posts, read 8,431,471 times
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Wikileaks claims that they uncovered evidence of heavy voter fraud favoring Obama in Ohio and Pennsylvania in 2008. How accurate that evidence is who knows.

I will admit that I was surprised that wikileaks posted the info, considering the reputation that they are pro-liberal.
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