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Old 09-03-2012, 08:46 PM
 
29,918 posts, read 18,476,320 times
Reputation: 20668

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Quote:
Originally Posted by crbcrbrgv View Post
My thought is this. If Bill Clinton and Obama absolutely hit it out of the park with their speeches, Romney is all but done.

What the RNC taught us is the Republican party is currently a crappy team with what appears to be some pretty darn good farm players.

You have got to be kidding! Convention speeches?

8.3% unemployment
incomes down 7.5%
personal savings down 40%
50 million on foodstamps
$16 trillion in debt
$1.3 trillion annual deficits with no end in sight
Largest tax increase in US history through Obamacare
Looting $750 billion from medicare to fund Obamacare
Real unemployment at 20%


And you think a speech is going to change any of the above. Obama has already lost. The nation "bought" a speech in 2008 and they will not be that stupid again.
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Old 09-03-2012, 08:53 PM
 
Location: Somewhere extremely awesome
3,130 posts, read 3,051,997 times
Reputation: 2472
Quote:
Originally Posted by mb1547 View Post
You have 63% in the conservative range? The polls, let alone election results, don't support that. Most national elections are within a couple of points of each other between the Rs and Ds--the country is split fairly evenly, with the moderates and independents in the middle falling either slightly center right or center left on a fairly equal basis.
Yes, I do have 63% in the conservative range. If you took the average position of those who considered themselves conservative and those who consider themselves liberal, I would bet that the conservative would receive about 63% of the vote.

Of course, this is not where the Republicans and Democrats are running. The Republicans are running at least moderate right (basically as far right as possible without going into unelectable territory,) and Democrats are running center-left. So that's why the votes end up being roughly evenly split.
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Old 09-03-2012, 09:47 PM
 
Location: Free From The Oppressive State
30,110 posts, read 23,499,354 times
Reputation: 38340
Quote:
Originally Posted by cbmsu01 View Post
Roughly 20% of the electorate are extreme conservatives. They detest Obama more than anybody ever. They dislike Romney because he is not conservative enough for them, but will vote for him anyway. They believe that the solution to America's problems is to nominate extreme conservative candidates, but the Republican establishment believes they will lose elections if they do so.

Another 20% of the electorate are strong conservatives. They detest Obama, and they generally like Romney and will vote for him. Generally, the Republican establishment wants to nominate people in this group.

About 10% of the electorate are pragmatic conservatives. They dislike Obama, are generally ambivalent on Romney, but are worried about the future of the country from both sides. This is the group that is generally considered to be RINOs. Most will probably vote for Romney, although some will vote for Obama.

About 12-13% of the electorate are conservative-leaning moderates. They're yearning for a conservative candidate that can appeal to everyone and isn't pandering to the 20% most conservative people. They generally do not have strong feelings about either Romney nor Obama. Because Obama is generally in the center, most will probably vote for him, although some will vote for Romney. This is generally Blue Dog Democrat territory.

About 12-13% of the electorate are liberal-leaning moderates. They fear the extremist liberal utopia but fear the extremist conservative utopia more. They dislike Romney and generally like Obama. Many Democrats run in this area to maximize the possibility of being elected.

About 15% of the electorate are moderate liberals. They detest what the Republicans stand for now and Romney by proxy, and generally like Obama. The Democratic establishment would like to run candidates here, but often times does not due to a high likelihood of losing.

About 10% of the electorate are extremist liberals. They detest the Republicans more than anyone ever. They generally dislike Obama because he is not liberal enough for them, but some hold out hope. Most people consider them on the fringe and don't pay attention to them.

So basically I think this election is decided by 1) if Romney can pull in (or avoid scaring off) moderates that often lean towards the conservative side, and 2) if the "RINO" types don't abandon their party.

Thoughts?
You forgot square in the middle who dislike St. Hope and Change and would NEVER vote for him but also dislike Romney because they know he's just another puppet...so they will vote for neither one.

And once again, NOT choosing "the lesser of the two evils" is not "throwing your vote away". God I'm sick of arrogant smug talk like that. Typical RINO talk. Where are the TRUE Conservatives? I vote on principle, not who the f-en media tells me who to vote for, brain washed sheeple.
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Old 09-03-2012, 10:43 PM
 
Location: Cape Coral
5,503 posts, read 7,291,272 times
Reputation: 2249
Quote:
Originally Posted by cbmsu01 View Post
Roughly 20% of the electorate are extreme conservatives. They detest Obama more than anybody ever. They dislike Romney because he is not conservative enough for them, but will vote for him anyway. They believe that the solution to America's problems is to nominate extreme conservative candidates, but the Republican establishment believes they will lose elections if they do so.

Another 20% of the electorate are strong conservatives. They detest Obama, and they generally like Romney and will vote for him. Generally, the Republican establishment wants to nominate people in this group.

About 10% of the electorate are pragmatic conservatives. They dislike Obama, are generally ambivalent on Romney, but are worried about the future of the country from both sides. This is the group that is generally considered to be RINOs. Most will probably vote for Romney, although some will vote for Obama.

About 12-13% of the electorate are conservative-leaning moderates. They're yearning for a conservative candidate that can appeal to everyone and isn't pandering to the 20% most conservative people. They generally do not have strong feelings about either Romney nor Obama. Because Obama is generally in the center, most will probably vote for him, although some will vote for Romney. This is generally Blue Dog Democrat territory.

About 12-13% of the electorate are liberal-leaning moderates. They fear the extremist liberal utopia but fear the extremist conservative utopia more. They dislike Romney and generally like Obama. Many Democrats run in this area to maximize the possibility of being elected.

About 15% of the electorate are moderate liberals. They detest what the Republicans stand for now and Romney by proxy, and generally like Obama. The Democratic establishment would like to run candidates here, but often times does not due to a high likelihood of losing.

About 10% of the electorate are extremist liberals. They detest the Republicans more than anyone ever. They generally dislike Obama because he is not liberal enough for them, but some hold out hope. Most people consider them on the fringe and don't pay attention to them.

So basically I think this election is decided by 1) if Romney can pull in (or avoid scaring off) moderates that often lean towards the conservative side, and 2) if the "RINO" types don't abandon their party.

Thoughts?
Obama in the center? That is hysterical. And RINOs not vote for Romney? He was picked by the RINOS two years ago.
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Old 09-04-2012, 06:30 AM
 
Location: New Mexico
8,396 posts, read 9,404,881 times
Reputation: 4070
Quote:
Originally Posted by cbmsu01 View Post
Roughly 20% of the electorate are extreme conservatives. They detest Obama more than anybody ever. They dislike Romney because he is not conservative enough for them, but will vote for him anyway. They believe that the solution to America's problems is to nominate extreme conservative candidates, but the Republican establishment believes they will lose elections if they do so.

Another 20% of the electorate are strong conservatives. They detest Obama, and they generally like Romney and will vote for him. Generally, the Republican establishment wants to nominate people in this group.

About 10% of the electorate are pragmatic conservatives. They dislike Obama, are generally ambivalent on Romney, but are worried about the future of the country from both sides. This is the group that is generally considered to be RINOs. Most will probably vote for Romney, although some will vote for Obama.

About 12-13% of the electorate are conservative-leaning moderates. They're yearning for a conservative candidate that can appeal to everyone and isn't pandering to the 20% most conservative people. They generally do not have strong feelings about either Romney nor Obama. Because Obama is generally in the center, most will probably vote for him, although some will vote for Romney. This is generally Blue Dog Democrat territory.

About 12-13% of the electorate are liberal-leaning moderates. They fear the extremist liberal utopia but fear the extremist conservative utopia more. They dislike Romney and generally like Obama. Many Democrats run in this area to maximize the possibility of being elected.

About 15% of the electorate are moderate liberals. They detest what the Republicans stand for now and Romney by proxy, and generally like Obama. The Democratic establishment would like to run candidates here, but often times does not due to a high likelihood of losing.

About 10% of the electorate are extremist liberals. They detest the Republicans more than anyone ever. They generally dislike Obama because he is not liberal enough for them, but some hold out hope. Most people consider them on the fringe and don't pay attention to them.

So basically I think this election is decided by 1) if Romney can pull in (or avoid scaring off) moderates that often lean towards the conservative side, and 2) if the "RINO" types don't abandon their party.

Thoughts?


I think making up percentages kind of negates whatever point you were trying to put across.
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Old 09-04-2012, 08:17 AM
 
Location: The Garden State
1,331 posts, read 2,977,806 times
Reputation: 1387
Quote:
Originally Posted by cbmsu01 View Post
Roughly 20% of the electorate are extreme conservatives. They detest Obama more than anybody ever. They dislike Romney because he is not conservative enough for them, but will vote for him anyway. They believe that the solution to America's problems is to nominate extreme conservative candidates, but the Republican establishment believes they will lose elections if they do so.

Another 20% of the electorate are strong conservatives. They detest Obama, and they generally like Romney and will vote for him. Generally, the Republican establishment wants to nominate people in this group.

About 10% of the electorate are pragmatic conservatives. They dislike Obama, are generally ambivalent on Romney, but are worried about the future of the country from both sides. This is the group that is generally considered to be RINOs. Most will probably vote for Romney, although some will vote for Obama.

About 12-13% of the electorate are conservative-leaning moderates. They're yearning for a conservative candidate that can appeal to everyone and isn't pandering to the 20% most conservative people. They generally do not have strong feelings about either Romney nor Obama. Because Obama is generally in the center, most will probably vote for him, although some will vote for Romney. This is generally Blue Dog Democrat territory.

About 12-13% of the electorate are liberal-leaning moderates. They fear the extremist liberal utopia but fear the extremist conservative utopia more. They dislike Romney and generally like Obama. Many Democrats run in this area to maximize the possibility of being elected.

About 15% of the electorate are moderate liberals. They detest what the Republicans stand for now and Romney by proxy, and generally like Obama. The Democratic establishment would like to run candidates here, but often times does not due to a high likelihood of losing.

About 10% of the electorate are extremist liberals. They detest the Republicans more than anyone ever. They generally dislike Obama because he is not liberal enough for them, but some hold out hope. Most people consider them on the fringe and don't pay attention to them.

So basically I think this election is decided by 1) if Romney can pull in (or avoid scaring off) moderates that often lean towards the conservative side, and 2) if the "RINO" types don't abandon their party.

Thoughts?


Unless these numbers are from a red state such as Mississippi. Your data is way off.
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Old 09-04-2012, 09:18 AM
 
Location: Orlando
8,274 posts, read 12,804,663 times
Reputation: 4136
Quote:
Originally Posted by hawkeye2009 View Post

And you think a speech is going to change any of the above. Obama has already lost. The nation "bought" a speech in 2008 and they will not be that stupid again.

But you think they are stupid enough to buy the Repug line they can do things better? We had 20 years of repug backwards governing. where the people lost their homes,their jobs, their insurance and so much more and you think a job killer from Bain capital can do something for the people... Nothing good will come to the people from the R&R team. Their lies are so thick even the Repug own news services can't hide them.
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Old 09-04-2012, 10:21 AM
 
1,058 posts, read 1,154,014 times
Reputation: 624
Quote:
Originally Posted by wutitiz View Post

There is the results from 2010 to consider too. That was a 'good old fashioned shellacking' (as Obama put it), and I don't where Obama and Dems have done anything to turn that around. What are the reasons that the trend of 2010 shouldn't continue in 2012? I can't really see any; in fact I can see where it might intensify in 2012, after the impressive speeches at the convention.

Lastly don't forget the debates. I know lots of people who are not very well-informed yet still tune in to the debates. With a 50-50 election, the debates could turn out to be the deciding factor.
Mid-term elections typically are low voter turnout affairs and skew older than a general election. This is not to say you aren't right, but I don't know if the mid-terms are representative of the electorate during a general election.

You are 100% correct about the debates. There are lots of people who really don't follow the candidates until the debates start. A strong debate by either candidate could have a huge impact.
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Old 09-04-2012, 10:30 AM
 
Location: By the sea, by the sea, by the beautiful sea
68,271 posts, read 53,985,563 times
Reputation: 40551
My thought is Obama is a lousy choice for POTUS, Romney is worse. Another battle to determine the best of two bad choices.
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