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Old 09-05-2012, 04:07 PM
 
26,680 posts, read 28,670,280 times
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Reassuring numbers for the sane among us:

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com
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Old 09-05-2012, 04:35 PM
 
Location: Montgomery County, MD
3,236 posts, read 3,938,592 times
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Wait for the rush of righties posting "but Nate Silver is a lib" while not offering any counter theories as to how Romney could possibly put together a winning coalition of states
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Old 09-05-2012, 04:43 PM
 
Location: The D-M-V area
13,691 posts, read 18,454,215 times
Reputation: 9596
The NYT is in the pocket of the libs. Do you think they'd write a fair report about what Obama's chances in November are?

Obama is set to speak tomorrow. They had a stadium all picked out, only they cancelled that venue "conveniently" and are claiming it's because of a "weather" issue. The fact is that they are busing in spectators from all over North Carolina as well as from out of state to fill the new "smaller" venue.

Sad.
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Old 09-05-2012, 04:44 PM
 
2,963 posts, read 6,262,793 times
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Each election cycle provides democrats with more and more of a structural EV advantage although the popular vote remains close (within 1-2% points). This is because Republicans are getting more and more of their % of votes from wasted votes in deep red states while Democrats are expanding their base in swing states. It doesn't help Romney when Oklahoma and Alabama go 99% Mitt Romney if Obama gets 52% in places like OH and FL.
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Old 09-05-2012, 04:46 PM
 
29,407 posts, read 22,005,733 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AnUnidentifiedMale View Post
Reassuring numbers for the sane among us:

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com
"Both 1996 and 2008 are slightly odd cases, however. In 1996, the polls had Mr. Clinton ahead of Mr. Dole by double-digits almost the whole way through the campaign, including on Election Day itself; the period right after the Republican convention that year was about the lone exception. So this may have been a case of two wrongs making a right: the polls were persistently biased toward Mr. Clinton, and Mr. Dole’s convention bounce counteracted that temporarily.And in 2008, it’s not quite clear what would have happened if not for the collapse of Lehman Brothers, which occurred about two weeks after the party conventions. Mr. Obama very probably still would have won, but it might have been by a smaller margin had the economic problems not become so acute so quickly.
Certainly, Mr. Romney could benefit from a parallel to either of these circumstances. The election is close enough that if there is even a modest bias in the polls toward Mr. Obama, the president’s chances will be tenuous."


The economic problems have become acute over Obama's entire term as president. This is why he will lose plain and simple.
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Old 09-05-2012, 04:48 PM
 
29,407 posts, read 22,005,733 times
Reputation: 5455
Quote:
Originally Posted by LuckyGem View Post
The NYT is in the pocket of the libs. Do you think they'd write a fair report about what Obama's chances in November are?

Obama is set to speak tomorrow. They had a stadium all picked out, only they cancelled that venue "conveniently" and are claiming it's because of a "weather" issue. The fact is that they are busing in spectators from all over North Carolina as well as from out of state to fill the new "smaller" venue.

Sad.
They had to cancel the speech at BANK OF AMERICA STADIUM? I wonder if that was taken into consideration by this great pollster? Bammer the great can't fill the seats at the DNC. Oops. lol
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Old 09-05-2012, 04:51 PM
 
Location: Portland, Oregon
46,001 posts, read 35,180,801 times
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It looks like it began at the third post, good job CD cons for jumping all over this one. I wonder how Romney is gonna win the election in the electoral vote.
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Old 09-05-2012, 04:52 PM
 
26,680 posts, read 28,670,280 times
Reputation: 7943
Quote:
Originally Posted by LuckyGem View Post
The NYT is in the pocket of the libs. Do you think they'd write a fair report about what Obama's chances in November are?
Is Rasmussen in the pocket of the libs too?

2012 Electoral College Scoreboard - Rasmussen Reports™
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Old 09-05-2012, 04:55 PM
 
12,669 posts, read 20,447,035 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KUchief25 View Post
They had to cancel the speech at BANK OF AMERICA STADIUM? I wonder if that was taken into consideration by this great pollster? Bammer the great can't fill the seats at the DNC. Oops. lol
Yep he had to speak at a smaller place..... Bwaahaahaahaa
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Old 09-05-2012, 04:56 PM
 
12,669 posts, read 20,447,035 times
Reputation: 3050
Quote:
Originally Posted by urbanlife78 View Post
It looks like it began at the third post, good job CD cons for jumping all over this one. I wonder how Romney is gonna win the election in the electoral vote.
He has already picked up new ones
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