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Do you believe Romney can win Ohio at this stage? I'm hard pressed to see a path for him now for that state. Romney would have to win every "toss up" state off the RCP map to win now if you think Ohio is a losing battle, and that would be one heck of a coup if he can do it.
I agree not winning Ohio would end it for a Romney victory. But. I think Ohio is still winnable for Romney.
There is a good percentage of people in that state that could change their vote. If Romney chips away at Obama's lead in the suburbs, wins big on the SW part of the state (which is a strong GOP area) and also gets lots of turnout in S and SE Ohio, he can overcome Obama's wins in the major urban areas. No, it's not easy, but it can happen.
The good thing for Romney also is that he remains competitive in Nevada, Iowa, and even Colorado. Those would be needed states, especially if Virginia goes for Obama again.
There is still a month to go in this election. Lots can happen on either side.
I think it's possible for Romney to win but it will not be even close to easy. Still, we have 3 debates, a jobs report and a pretty volatile world stage between now and then. Obama is leading but not by enough that he can't get got. There is a slim chance. If it were 2 weeks from the election I'd say he was done, but you never know.
Onoz! President Obama now leads by 3 points in the only poll some people (some monmumentally gullible people, I should say) believe isn't in on some massive conspiracy to utterly destroy their own business models by falsely showing Obama in the lead!
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows President Obama attracting support from 50% of voters nationwide, while Mitt Romney earns the vote from 47%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided.
I think it's possible for Romney to win but it will not be even close to easy. Still, we have 3 debates, a jobs report and a pretty volatile world stage between now and then. Obama is leading but not by enough that he can't get got. There is a slim chance. If it were 2 weeks from the election I'd say he was done, but you never know.
I think that's a lot of wishful thinking.
In 2004, in the first debate, Bush looked like at total moron and it didn't effect the polls. In debates, voters see what they want to see.
As of now, Romney must win not only Ohio but also Florida, both which he is trailing -- as is most of the other swing states. Obama only needs CO, NM, and FL to get 275 or CO, NM, WI and OH for 274. If Obama wins only FL and OH among the swing states, he is at 279. By the numbers, Romney has an uphill battle.
As Paul Krugman said today, instead of Romney letting the election be a referendum on Obama's last four years, the right-wing couldn't help expanding this election to a referendum on the social safety net itself, which pre-dates Obama by many decades:
Quote:
Yet there is a sense in which the election is indeed a referendum, but of a different kind. Voters are, in effect, being asked to deliver a verdict on the legacy of the New Deal and the Great Society, on Social Security, Medicare and, yes, Obamacare, which represents an extension of that legacy. Will they vote for politicians who want to replace Medicare with Vouchercare, who denounce Social Security as “collectivist” (as Paul Ryan once did), who dismiss those who turn to social insurance programs as people unwilling to take responsibility for their lives?
If the polls are any indication, the result of that referendum will be a clear reassertion of support for the safety net, and a clear rejection of politicians who want to return us to the Gilded Age.
Onoz! President Obama now leads by 3 points in the only poll some people (some monmumentally gullible people, I should say) believe isn't in on some massive conspiracy to utterly destroy their own business models by falsely showing Obama in the lead!
Do you believe Romney can win Ohio at this stage? I'm hard pressed to see a path for him now for that state. Romney would have to win every "toss up" state off the RCP map to win now if you think Ohio is a losing battle, and that would be one heck of a coup if he can do it.
I think he still has a good shot at Ohio. If he was losing Ohio Independents by a significant margin I'd say he's toast there. However when you drill down on the polls that are unfavorable to him. You notice the margin consists of almost entirely the difference between folks who identify as Dems vs folks who identify as Repubs. He's running even or ahead among Independents.
Also we know factually registration is down in Ohio from '08 and most of that among Dems and in Dem leaning population centers. I suspect when Obama won Iowa there was an increase in folks who identified as Dem to participate in the primary. Also the foreclosure crisis was particularly acute in Cleveland. Who knows where these folks are at the moment are they still in Ohio?
Finally the demographics of Ohio. It's 83% White and considerably more working class. We know Obama has had a problem nationally with this group. I find it hard to believe things are that drastically different among this group in Ohio. While Romney probably doesn't necessarily endear himself to this group he can still win a good portion of them over.
Let's see... even using the bogus numbers you present, 80% of 25%(Repub identifiers) = 20 and 75% of 38%(Dem identifiers) = 28.5 ???? which is bigger?
I'm assuming your smarmy response was directed at me, given that you quoted me. The numbers were from the politico website quoted earlier in this statement.
Your suggestion that you don't know if 20 is larger than 38 aside, I'm going to point out that both those numbers are irrelevant:
If 75% of (say) the 47% of people saying they'll vote for Obama turn out, that works out to be 35.25
If 80% of(say) the 45% of people saying they'll vote for Romney turn out, that works out to be 36%.
If the 75% of people self-identifying that they are extremely likely to turnout and vote for Obama is correct, as per the previous post given, and the 80% of those self-identifying that they are extremely likely to turnout and vote for Romney, that means Romney squeaks out a win.
Older people tend to vote Republican and tend to turn out in larger numbers. Younger people tend to vote for Democrats and tend to be less inclined to vote. That's a simple fact of American politics currently and something the President needs to recognize in his campaigning.
If you look at our estimate of Mitt Romney’s chances of winning the Electoral College, which are about 15 percent right now in the FiveThirtyEight forecast, the touchdown analogy works best: Mr. Romney has about as much chance of winning as an N.F.L. team does when it trails by a touchdown early in the fourth quarter.
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