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The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows President Obama attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while Mitt Romney earns the vote from 47%.
Bear in mind that Rasmussen showing Obama ahead in their daily tracking poll is the equivalent of Terry Bradshaw picking the Steeler's opponent on NFL Fox Sunday -- it almost never happens, and when it does, it's bad bad bad news for the Steelers.
Bear in mind that Rasmussen showing Obama ahead in their daily tracking poll is the equivalent of Terry Bradshaw picking the Steeler's opponent on NFL Fox Sunday -- it almost never happens, and when it does, it's bad bad bad news for the Steelers.
They all are converging on 3% give or take which is the prediction of the outcome made months ago. The only real story anymore is in the toss up states. Obama looks very good in the toss up/swing states. It is very hard to see how Romney has any credible path to victory with Ohio going for Obama way outside the MOE as it now is.
"The latest poll by NPR and its bipartisan polling team shows President Obama with a 7-point lead among likely voters nationally and a 6-point lead in the dozen battleground states where both campaigns are spending most of their time and money. "
They all are converging on 3% give or take which is the prediction of the outcome made months ago. The only real story anymore is in the toss up states. Obama looks very good in the toss up/swing states. It is very hard to see how Romney has any credible path to victory with Ohio going for Obama way outside the MOE as it now is.
Spin away Ponderosa. RCP has Ohio at 5.5 for Obama so he's about 1.5 outside the ME. No where near waaaay outside the ME.
Spin away Ponderosa. RCP has Ohio at 5.5 for Obama so he's about 1.5 outside the ME. No where near waaaay outside the ME.
Of course, that is an average and more recent polls show much larger leads. But 1.5% is, in fact, way outside statistically. I would guess that it is within the 99% confidence band for Obama. Translation: It would be a near miracle if Romney wins Ohio based on current polling. Given they are already voting there and Obama's strongest GOTV is in Ohio, things look bleak indeed for the challenger. In addition to Ohio, Obama needs but one other toss up. He has a lock on Nevada per current polling as well. No spin, just the cold reality of inferential statistics. Oh well.
"By noon on Tuesday, more than 1,000 people had cast their ballots at the main office on Euclid Avenue.
By comparison, on the first day of early voting in 2008 approximately 500 voters cast their ballots."
Of course, that is an average and more recent polls show much larger leads. But 1.5% is, in fact, way outside statistically. I would guess that it is within the 99% confidence band for Obama. Translation: It would be a near miracle if Romney wins Ohio based on current polling. Given they are already voting there and Obama's strongest GOTV is in Ohio, things look bleak indeed for the challenger. In addition to Ohio, Obama needs but one other toss up. He has a lock on Nevada per current polling as well. No spin, just the cold reality of inferential statistics. Oh well.
I'm also infusing the Obama campaign with another $250 donation today (and I'm sure thousands of others are too), so that doesn't bode well for the Romney campaign either.
"By noon on Tuesday, more than 1,000 people had cast their ballots at the main office on Euclid Avenue.
By comparison, on the first day of early voting in 2008 approximately 500 voters cast their ballots."
I'd venture to guess some of the one million people in OH who have free "Obama phones" were the first to line up. [1]
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