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Old 09-27-2012, 11:26 PM
 
29,778 posts, read 10,029,115 times
Reputation: 3158

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Electric Blue View Post
I am not saying Obama may not be leading. What I am saying is way too many polls have absurd oversamples. Does anyone REALLY think Ohio and Florida are more liberal and Democrat than the nation as a whole? Or that 10% more Dem voters will go to the polls? Why not use a more normal election model,like 2004. No ****ing way does Obama win Florida by 9 points. Or Ohio by 10. Sorry. Bull**** on that.
This will clear up the biased discrepancies...
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Old 09-27-2012, 11:34 PM
 
27,183 posts, read 9,148,066 times
Reputation: 7439
Why doesn't everyone just calm down. Since no one wants to believe the other guys' polls, just wait until election night and let the cards call where they fall. No need to keep arguing about polls.
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Old 09-28-2012, 12:10 AM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
14,670 posts, read 8,152,061 times
Reputation: 2625
Quote:
Originally Posted by Electric Blue View Post
I am not saying Obama may not be leading. What I am saying is way too many polls have absurd oversamples. Does anyone REALLY think Ohio and Florida are more liberal and Democrat than the nation as a whole? Or that 10% more Dem voters will go to the polls? Why not use a more normal election model,like 2004. No ****ing way does Obama win Florida by 9 points. Or Ohio by 10. Sorry. Bull**** on that.
No matter the pollster, and no matter the track record, you are always going to have some polls that are outliers. However, when poll after poll after poll are showing very similar results, its far more likely that its where things are than all of the polls being outliers. Obama up big in Florida I don't really buy at this point because while one poll suggested he was, the consensus of the polls don't support that. They show Obama up by a comfortable margin in Florida for the most part, but not the 9 point lead. Ohio, on the other hand is bit different. It isn't just one poll showing Obama up big, its several polls showing a very similar result.
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Old 09-28-2012, 12:15 AM
 
Location: Miramar Beach, FL
2,042 posts, read 2,518,174 times
Reputation: 904
Quote:
Originally Posted by eRayP View Post
I do wonder if Obama loses if they will use it to start protests.
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Old 09-28-2012, 12:19 AM
 
58,094 posts, read 30,625,707 times
Reputation: 7379
Quote:
Originally Posted by katzpaw View Post
They aren't. You've just reworded the false premise. Is the Fox poll (with Obama in the lead) also part of this massive conspiracy?
Even the pollsters are admitting they are oversampling Democrats

The PJ Tatler Quinnipiac Pollster Admits that Polls Oversampling Democrats Just Might Not Accurately Predict the Election
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Old 09-29-2012, 08:14 AM
 
Location: West Egg
2,160 posts, read 842,488 times
Reputation: 1260
They're not.

Here, I'll let Frank Newport -- Editor-in-Chief for the Gallup polling organization -- explain it to you.

Gallup.Com - Polling Matters by Frank Newport: The Recurring -- and Misleading -- Focus on Party Identification
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Old 09-29-2012, 08:18 AM
 
10,463 posts, read 3,124,842 times
Reputation: 2796
2010 was a great indicator of where people stand.
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Old 09-29-2012, 08:54 AM
 
Location: Chicago, IL
1,265 posts, read 703,349 times
Reputation: 968
Quote:
Originally Posted by bluesjuke View Post
2010 was a great indicator of where people stand.
No it wasn't. Off year elections never have the turnout we see during presidential election years. People are seeing how bat**** crazy the teabaggers are as well and are moving away from the GOP.
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Old 09-29-2012, 08:57 AM
 
Location: High Cotton
6,131 posts, read 3,878,218 times
Reputation: 3657
I hope they continue to use the 2008 models...because that will only prompt more people to get out and vote to run clown Obozo out of the white house...
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Old 09-29-2012, 09:01 AM
 
58,094 posts, read 30,625,707 times
Reputation: 7379
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ace Rothstein View Post
No it wasn't. Off year elections never have the turnout we see during presidential election years. People are seeing how bat**** crazy the teabaggers are as well and are moving away from the GOP.
Except for one thing, 2010 turnouts in many locations were very comparable to 2008, which was so "historical"..

Some elections officials compare 2010 voter turnout to 2008 levels - National Political Buzz | Examiner.com
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