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I said the polls would tighten up, not that Romeny would win the election. There's been a tendancy for these races to narrow as the election approaches so you'd be looking at something like Obama/McCain in the popular vote, with maybe a bit more for the GOP this time since Obama's novelty/"change" thing has worn off a bit. This isn't going to be an electoral vote landslide the way Reagan beat Carter, for example (methinks 538 has the electoral map pretty well pegged).
Intrade, another big online betting site, has shown an interesting trend, after months tooling around with 50-55% Obama/45-50% Romney, just since the beginning of Sept it's transformed to a rather stunning 78/22% in favor of Obama. Mittens better have a great debate series! He's in a really deep hole.
Silver's final 2008 presidential election forecast accurately predicted the winner of 49 of the 50 states as well as the District of Columbia (missing only the prediction for Indiana). As his model predicted, the races in Missouri and North Carolina were particularly close. He also correctly predicted the winners of every U.S. Senate race. The accuracy of his predictions won him further acclaim, including abroad, and added to his reputation as a leading political prognosticator.
Please explain why private polling companies would manipulate their polls to show Obama in the lead.
Because most are Democrats, and "in the tank" for Obama. Duh! They hope to suppress the Republican vote, by dispiriting Republicans in the hope we think it's over, and so don't bother to vote.
I said the polls would tighten up, not that Romeny would win the election. There's been a tendancy for these races to narrow as the election approaches so you'd be looking at something like Obama/McCain in the popular vote, with maybe a bit more for the GOP this time since Obama's novelty/"change" thing has worn off a bit. This isn't going to be an electoral vote landslide the way Reagan beat Carter, for example (methinks 538 has the electoral map pretty well pegged).
I dunno DS...I see it more resembling the 1988 election. Not a complete runaway, but a landslide nonetheless. Romney's Boca Raton dinner will stick in the mind of Average Joe & Jen like this image of Dukakis: http://news.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/spl...ders/img/5.jpg
Quote:
Originally Posted by nononsenseguy
Because most are Democrats, and "in the tank" for Obama. Duh! They hope to suppress the Republican vote, by dispiriting Republicans in the hope we think it's over, and so don't bother to vote.
Wow, Republicans complaining about voter suppression...now I've truly seen everything!
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No, thanks. This is B.S.
