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Old 09-09-2012, 10:20 AM
 
Location: exit 0
5,305 posts, read 4,384,488 times
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We seem to have a great deal of presidential poll threads.

Going forward please post ALL polling information in this thread. It may prove to be a valuable tool when searching for information from last week or even last month.
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Old 09-09-2012, 10:53 AM
 
Location: Bella Vista, Ark
77,772 posts, read 104,356,591 times
Reputation: 49248
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ibginnie View Post
We seem to have a great deal of presidential poll threads.

Going forward please post ALL polling information in this thread. It may prove to be a valuable tool when searching for information from last week or even last month.
thanks, great idea. If does get a little rediculous seeing several threads on the same subject. I would like to see this on all similar subjects; when someone starts a thread about a candidate and a particular phase relating to the person or subject, why do we sometimes have a 1/2 dozen more, all saying about the same thing.??
Nita
 
Old 09-09-2012, 11:43 AM
 
Location: Stasis
15,823 posts, read 12,418,120 times
Reputation: 8599
Rasmussen reports a big convention bounce for Obama:
Obama 49%
Romney 45%

Sunday, September 09, 2012
Daily Presidential Tracking Poll - Rasmussen Reports™
 
Old 09-09-2012, 11:45 AM
 
Location: Greensboro, NC USA
6,152 posts, read 7,177,456 times
Reputation: 2448
5 points is pretty significant in this political climate.

Gallup Poll

49% Obama
44% Romney

Last edited by gsoboi78; 09-09-2012 at 12:01 PM..
 
Old 09-09-2012, 01:01 PM
 
25,024 posts, read 27,849,772 times
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For those who might cry foul of unknown/biased website or whatever:

Analysis of election factors points to Romney win, University of Colorado study says | University of Colorado Boulder
 
Old 09-09-2012, 01:09 PM
 
Location: Las Vegas, NV
272 posts, read 228,413 times
Reputation: 111
I thought this was already posted a while ago and debunked. If I remember correctly, while University of Colorado has predicted the election correctly before, the current model it is using is not a tested model.
 
Old 09-09-2012, 01:10 PM
 
Location: Greensboro, NC USA
6,152 posts, read 7,177,456 times
Reputation: 2448
there is a first time for everything
 
Old 09-09-2012, 01:23 PM
 
Location: Manhattan
1,196 posts, read 835,946 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by selrahC View Post
the current model it is using is not a tested model.
The model, the only of its kind to use more than one state-level economic indicator, has correctly predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1980.
 
Old 09-09-2012, 01:28 PM
 
Location: Wisconsin
25,606 posts, read 56,335,104 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hogstooth View Post
The model, the only of its kind to use more than one state-level economic indicator, has correctly predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1980.
Actually, that is not exactly true. The model has done simulations going back to 1980, but has only been used for the last one or two elections as a predictor. A distinction without a difference, perhaps.

These models always work - until they don't. Similar to the financial markets. Investors are continually cautioned "past performance is not an indicator of future results."

So, it may be the confluence of circumstances today will be the exception that proves the rule - up until the 2012 election, that is.

Race and poverty are the variables in this election. The CO model does not allow for the huge demographic change occuring in this country today. I heard this morning in 2000, 12% of the voters were Hispanic. In 2008, 25%. AZ's population is 25% Hispanic, its children 61% minorities.
Quote:
As of 2011, 61.3% of Arizona's children under the age of 1 belonged to minority groups.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arizona#Demographics
A harbinger of the future of the US, imho. Plus, President Obama is black, which has energized the black voter. Thus, the voter ID/voting hours laws popping up everywhere designed to make it harder to vote.

The "economy" will probably not be the ultimate determinant in the election this year.

Last edited by Ariadne22; 09-09-2012 at 01:47 PM..
 
Old 09-09-2012, 01:34 PM
 
Location: Flyover Country
26,212 posts, read 19,453,073 times
Reputation: 21678
It's never been wrong since 1980.

Until 2012.
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