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Fair enough, but another viewpoint is quite valuable.
I find it a bit specious that a verifiably inept GOP candidate somehow reigns supreme now, and a verifiably skilled president is now consider clueless and inept, after one debate. It is like by losing one game, a super bowl bound team has proven its worthlessness. Perhaps. Perhaps not.
One problem with your hypothesis - it's what you believe. It's not what everyone believes. Romney is not inept, Obama is not "verifably skilled" - in my opinion.
I don't know what you all were expecting. You all acted like Obama had a 20-point lead and was about to win in a Reagan/Mondale-like or Nixon/McGovern-like landslide...when he couldn't even crack 50% in the vast majority of polls. The undecided voters had to go somewhere. They are not happy with Obama and are not happy with the way things are going in the country. They were a bit uncomfortable with Romney, so he had to do something to get their support. But he didn't have to do that much. We will see what happens over the next few weeks.
Last edited by afoigrokerkok; 10-14-2012 at 06:22 PM..
I think the answer to your dilemma of The Zero performance is made clear in the closing paragraph of the link you provided.
Quote:
And that sort of battle cannot be won in a single night by a debate. No matter how earth-shattering that performance may have been, it could not have changed the fundamentals of a campaign - and of a country - that is prepared to give Obama another term.
You see, it's not just one debate, it's the fundamentals. Outside of that constituent that is prepared to give Sir Zero another term, all has been lost. It's just fundamental.
One problem with your hypothesis - it's what you believe. It's not what everyone believes. Romney is not inept, Obama is not "verifably skilled" - in my opinion.
I don't know what you all were expecting. You all acted like Obama had a 20-point lead and was about to win in a Reagan/Mondale-like or Nixon/McGovern-like landslide...when he couldn't even crack 50% in the vast majority of polls. The undecided voters had to go somewhere. They are not happy with Obama and are not happy with the way things are going in the country. They were a bit uncomfortable with Romney, so he had to do something to get their support. But he didn't have to do that much. We will see what happens over the next few weeks.
Personally, I have never thought this was going to be a 20 point blowout. I figured it would be close, but after the 20% comments, I must admit, I though the guy was done. However, it is not true that one debate changes everything permanently. Three blowouts, maybe. Obama has many other strengths, if he can staunch the losses from his screw up a couple weeks ago.
Oh, and nothing wrong with putting forward a hypothesis that a slim majority of the people believes. That will suffice here.
Personally, I have never thought this was going to be a 20 point blowout. I figured it would be close, but after the 20% comments, I must admit, I though the guy was done. However, it is not true that one debate changes everything permanently. Three blowouts, maybe. Obama has many other strengths, if he can staunch the losses from his screw up a couple weeks ago.
When was the last time a debate bump was ever temporary?
Let's look back at the last three elections. 2000, 2004, 2008. In 2008, the debates didn't matter much. The financial crash settled that election (also partially more people becoming aware of how incompetent Palin was settled the election). Regardless, a debate bump in that election would have probably helped Obama, given that McCain was a part of the incumbent party.
In 2004, Bush was up by more than 7 in the polls in part of September. After the first debate, Bush's lead was down to about 2 if I remember correctly. Bush won by 2.4.
In 2000, Gore was up by about 7 or so if I remember right. After the first debate, that closed significantly. Gore won the popular vote by 0.5.
Here's the thing - Obama had a 3-4 point lead. That is not enough of margin for an incumbent going into the debates, particularly when the incumbent can't get to 50% in most polls, his approval is below 50% in most polls, etc.
If the election were today, either of the candidates could win. Like I said, we will see what happens over the next few weeks. All of this being said, I suspect we may not even know the winner the day after the election. It may be close enough - whoever wins - that there are weeks of recounts and maybe even court involvement.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fiddlehead
Oh, and nothing wrong with putting forward a hypothesis that a slim majority of the people believes. That will suffice here.
Except that's not what a majority of the people believe.
When was the last time a debate bump was ever temporary?
Let's look back at the last three elections. 2000, 2004, 2008. In 2008, the debates didn't matter much. The financial crash settled that election (also partially more people becoming aware of how incompetent Palin was settled the election). Regardless, a debate bump in that election would have probably helped Obama, given that McCain was a part of the incumbent party.
In 2004, Bush was up by more than 7 in the polls in part of September. After the first debate, Bush's lead was down to about 2 if I remember correctly. Bush won by 2.4.
In 2000, Gore was up by about 7 or so if I remember right. After the first debate, that closed significantly. Gore won the popular vote by 0.5.
Here's the thing - Obama had a 3-4 point lead. That is not enough of margin for an incumbent going into the debates, particularly when the incumbent can't get to 50% in most polls, his approval is below 50% in most polls, etc.
If the election were today, either of the candidates could win. Like I said, we will see what happens over the next few weeks. All of this being said, I suspect we may not even know the winner the day after the election.
Except that's not what a majority of the people believe.
Good points. I have never studied the permanents of debate bumps, so you could be right. However, I think it is fair to say that the nature of Obama's first debate seemed anomalous. I think everyone is waiting to see if that is true. I will not speculate too much about the debate other than to say I think he will give more spirited fight, and Romney has many vulnerabilities that have not been pointed out.
Like Toure, I am entirely ok with being optimistic at this point. I am well aware of Obama's strengths, and some vulnerabilities. On the whole, I am not betting against him. That does not mean I am right, of course. It is a horse race.
I will not speculate too much about the debate other than to say I think he will give more spirited fight, and Romney has many vulnerabilities that have not been pointed out.
Well, the Obama campaign and groups supporting Obama have thrown basically everything at Romney. Talking about him offshoring jobs when he didn't, accusing him of being a felon, hell one group even went so far as to suggest that Romney was responsible for a woman dying of cancer.
I have to ask - if Obama has such a wonderful record, why hasn't touting this been the main focus of his campaign's efforts (and the main focus of the efforts of his allies)? Why should it continue to be about Romney's "vulnerablities" now?
I dunno. I feel like if Obama's re-election was as fragile and flimsy as some might imply, there would have been a bigger fallout in polling numbers.
Most polls still give him an electoral vote advantage
Predictive markets still favor him to win
There is no indication of a Reagan-esque landslide that some may want to believe will occur. The focus in this next debate is on him, but now the tune has changed to put the pressure on Romney to keep up the pace. Just because there was a dip in the polls after the last debate doesnt indicate the trend will continue with each debate if the outcome is the same.
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