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This is something interesting i havent thought about it. The older demo who are going romney are more likely to have landlines only, compared to many younger-middle aged who use cell phones only. These polls only call landline numbers and underrepresent cell phone users(more likely obama supporters).
The pollsters have been dealing with this issue for almost 2 decades now and presumably have come up with workarounds.
As Michigan notes, in 2010 the R's picked up 63 House seats, much more than any pollster predicted. So if anything there may be an anti Republican bias with current methodology.
This is something interesting i havent thought about it. The older demo who are going romney are more likely to have landlines only, compared to many younger-middle aged who use cell phones only. These polls only call landline numbers and underrepresent cell phone users(more likely obama supporters).
I know you aren't trying to argue that a midterm is demographically similar to a general, are you?
They dont switch from landlines to cell phones (i.e. the purpose of the thread) based upon midterms vs general elections.. Come on, you're smarter than that.
They dont switch from landlines to cell phones (i.e. the purpose of the thread) based upon midterms vs general elections.. Come on, you're smarter than that.
Don't they call likely voters? So if there is a lower turnout there is a different sample than those that turn for a general election.
Don't they call likely voters? So if there is a lower turnout there is a different sample than those that turn for a general election.
Come on, you're smarter than that.
They start out by calling registered voters, then as the election gets closer, they then slowly switch to likely voters as you get closer to the election.
I also think Republicans are less tolerable of phone polls and are more likely to hang up.
Seriously? I'm middle aged and I'm the one who hangs up on pollsters--I'm too busy to mess with them. Most of the retirees I know feel like they have to answer the questions if someone goes to the trouble to call them. Retirees have a higher proportion of R's...
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