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It makes no sense for Romney to be wasting precious time in a state they have no chance to carry. Hr should be in VA and OH among others. What an idiot campaign they have. Trace, wipe the mud off your glasses. It'll help you see things a little clearer!!!!
Im confident Romney will take FL....but, there is a small possibility of undersampling amongst the Hispanic community that could maaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaybe shift it.
This election was the oddball in 2010, and if you're a conservative its an excellent resource to harp on about how Nate Silver doesn't know what he's doing
Seriously though the general consensus post election results was Reid squeaked by thanks to a strong latino voter turnout, and latinos tend to vote Democratic. Since a lot of polling isnt done in Spanish, they weren't factored into the electorate.
Will it happen in FL? Maybe...I wouldnt hold my breath. But it could.
In Florida Mitt runs about 50/50 with Hispanics. The shift among white voters is key there and across the country.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nick is rulz
Im confident Romney will take FL....but, there is a small possibility of undersampling amongst the Hispanic community that could maaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaybe shift it.
This election was the oddball in 2010, and if you're a conservative its an excellent resource to harp on about how Nate Silver doesn't know what he's doing
Seriously though the general consensus post election results was Reid squeaked by thanks to a strong latino voter turnout, and latinos tend to vote Democratic. Since a lot of polling isnt done in Spanish, they weren't factored into the electorate.
Will it happen in FL? Maybe...I wouldnt hold my breath. But it could.
I'm not so sure Romney is going to win Florida as you are. I don't generally knock polls with the exception of taking a hard line on the automated, landline only ones. But the Mason Dixon has some numbers that just don't gibe with other polling in Florida. It seems way too negative on Obama. Also, there is no gender gap. I am not buying that.
Another consideration is that the sample size is quite small. The Marist, on the other hand, is a good methodology poll and has very large sample size. The prez lead is almost outside the MOE on that one because of that. Even though Obama is not going there much, Clinton and the rest of the gang have been working it. I think, at this point, it is maybe 1-2 points Romney and they can overturn that with a large showing at the polls. FL could be a nice Obama surprise win on Tuesday. Don't count it out just yet.
I think on Tuesday it will be clear that Marist has been polling a different planet this year. Every poll they pump out leans heavy to Obama and the Dems.
Meanwhile Mason-Dixon has a pretty good reputation, especially in the south.
I think on Tuesday it will be clear that Marist has been polling a different planet this year. Every poll they pump out leans heavy to Obama and the Dems.
Meanwhile Mason-Dixon has a pretty good reputation.
Marist found (note: they don't select) Dem +9 in that survey where it was +8 in 2008. Cut it by two-thirds and Obama still is outside the MoE. To paraphrase Nate Silver's column today: there were 20 state polls yesterday. Obama was in front in 19 of them. It takes a pretty great leap of belief in statistical bias to argue that that 19 are wrong and the one is right. I am quite certain that Tuesday is going to be a very good night for Obama. Whether it is one vote or 6%, it doesn't matter. OH is going to Obama and Romney has no path to victory without it.
Marist found (note: they don't select) Dem +9 in that survey where it was +8 in 2008. Cut it by two-thirds and Obama still is outside the MoE. To paraphrase Nate Silver's column today: there were 20 state polls yesterday. Obama was in front in 19 of them. It takes a pretty great leap of belief in statistical bias to argue that that 19 are wrong and the one is right. I am quite certain that Tuesday is going to be a very good night for Obama.
I'm not saying Romney will win, I'm saying Marist is way off. But they could be four points off across the board and Romney still won't win. They think it is 2008 and if it was the Dems would be on the verge of taking back the house and running up a big majority in the Senate. None of the national polls jive with their polling either, they are far far apart.
I'm not saying Romney will win, I'm saying Marist is way off. But they could be four points off across the board and Romney still won't win. They think it is 2008 and if it was the Dems would be on the verge of taking back the house and running up a big majority in the Senate.
Nationwide, it may not be 2008, but in the swing states where all the ads and the GOTV efforts are, it may be.
Traveling through central and western PA on several occasions I saw mostly Romney Ryan signs, estimated around 18 R/R to 1 O/B. There are also a lot of Stop the war on coal Fire Obama signs too. Talking to people there it is very possible that it could go republican. They are not NY and they have in the past.
Many are dems there voting republican this time around. Yes, they do like their guns but people from PA are not as back-woods as people think. They are well educated people who are very family oriented. I love that Obama thought that PA was his. Never let the oponent see you coming.
Of course most expect that the inter-city poor will vote Obama.
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