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Here is where it stands now...with 1 more early voting day (what are numbers from 2008?)
early voting in FL thru Friday 11/2
43% dem
40% rep
18% indies
Traditionally GOP gets more cross party voters than Dems and even the most generous of state polls to Obama shows him losing Indies. Florida is essentially wrapped up for Romney with this breakout.
WAY OFF 2008 levels for democrats. 280,000 vote lead for dems in 2008.
"The number of total early voters is so high that there's a chance almost 50 percent of the electorate will have voted before Election Day (there are 12 million registered voters, but about 75 percent -- or 9 million -- typically show). Right now, about 44 percent of the 9 million likely voters have already cast their ballots."
[LEFT]
Read more here: About 4 million early FL ballots cast -- and growing. Ds leading Rs by 104,000 | Naked Politics[/LEFT]
Traditionally GOP gets more cross party voters than Dems and even the most generous of state polls to Obama shows him losing Indies. Florida is essentially wrapped up for Romney with this breakout.
Florida has more registered Democrats.
FL Repubs: 4,212,241 (36% of registered voters)
FL Dems: 2,715,684 (41 % of registered voters)
The remaining registered voters are non-party or other minor party.
Please explain why he is wrong in your opinion. Polls don't sample based on party, the sample based on sex, age and race.
Because they dont randomly call people out of the phone book.
If they expect 37% Democratic turnout, they try to get 37% of the poll results to be Democratic..
It would be totally ridiculous to randomly call people and then ignore that you might be calling a highly Democratic, or a highly Republican are, and pretend your results are accurate.
Because they dont randomly call people out of the phone book.
If they expect 37% Democratic turnout, they try to get 37% of the poll results to be Democratic..
It would be totally ridiculous to randomly call people and then ignore that you might be calling a highly Democratic, or a highly Republican are, and pretend your results are accurate.
Polls do not try to guess turnout, it just doesn't happen. They do randomly call people and report on the party ID, that's all.
Because they dont randomly call people out of the phone book.
If they expect 37% Democratic turnout, they try to get 37% of the poll results to be Democratic..
It would be totally ridiculous to randomly call people and then ignore that you might be calling a highly Democratic, or a highly Republican are, and pretend your results are accurate.
I can't believe that someone would say this. This is completely false. It is the dumbest comment I have ever read about polling and reflects total ignorance of how it is done and how statistical inference works. You do not know what you are talking about. Please stay out of these conversation in the future as you run the risk of having people believe what you say.
Why does this muddleheaded notion that they select x number of dems, y number of reps and z number of indies or whatever persist? What are we teaching in our schools?
They DO call random numbers from phone lists. They DO NOT ask party ID until the end. If the sample is too dem or too rep, then in theory that is handled by the margin of error. Get an education and get back with those of us who do have one.
Final Des Moines Register Poll from Iowa: Obama 47, Romney 42
More good news for Obama, more bad news for Romney.
Quote:
Iowans are feeling more optimistic about where the nation is headed, and they’re giving President Barack Obama the credit.
Obama is up 5 percentage points in Iowa, leading Republican Mitt Romney 47 percent to 42 percent, according to a new Des Moines Register Iowa Poll, although the results also contain signs of hope for Romney, political strategists said.
Haha, I tore this site up 2 days ago and showed that their projections are MATHMATICALLY IMPOSSIBLE, and here ya go, another left wing kook, posting the exact same link..
[MOD CUT]
No, what you showed 2 days ago is that you don't know statistics or understand algorithms.
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No mystery...
