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15 polls in Ohio in the last few days. 2 show a tie, 13 show an Obama lead.
Hummmmmm
yep the one I used showed a lead too. 2 points within the margin of error. You do understand there isn't a poll outside the margin of error. Pretty good for the pollsters. they are right no matter who wins
yep the one I used showed a lead too. 2 points within the margin of error. You do understand there isn't a poll outside the margin of error. Pretty good for the pollsters. they are right no matter who wins
No, there are polls outside of the margin of error.
However, its a trend, can almost all of the polls show an Obama lead or a tie, and be wrong? Its possible, but its a small, very small chance.
I don't really care which one wins, Obama or Romney, I'm not voting for either, same thing, different party. But the odds, the polls, and what seems to be the mood of the country all favor Obama.
Polls are just BS, look what happened in the 1980 election the so-called polls had Carter ahead and Reagan won in a landslide. Can't forget as that was my first election I voted in.
Polls have become incrementally unstable, imo. Too many people have cell phones, too many people knowingly and laughingly manipulate their responses, too many people just flat don't understand the questions.
I've received 2 general election phone polls that I can recall. I was somewhat impressed with the Gallup poll questions as well as with the demeanor of the questioner, and I answered questions honestly. If they were to call me today, I would probably play with them and have a little fun instead of being straightforward.
The pollster has shown results more GOP friendly than any other pollster in the state the entire time. What is more likely, everyone else being wrong? or one of them being wrong? Also any polls conducted during and in the immediate aftermath of Sandy could have some weirdness to it (which is why Gallup suspended polling for several days). Sandy did impact much of the state, with the Philly metro area being the hardest hit.
Well..by that logic, there are more democratic leaning polls, so therefore they must be right? There are more democratic news agencies, so they must be right too? Come on!
Cant we all just agree that polls are skewed one way or another.....either the turnout favors one party or the other. It should be obvious to us all that we will choose the poll that favors our party. Rassmussen gets 2000 and 2004 right cause it was a R+1 turnout or whatever. Nate Silver gets 2008 right due to D+7 turnout. I remember a saying about "a broken watch is right twice a day"....
I choose to believe my eyes which tell me this election will look nothing like 2008. Of course if Dems somehow turn out with a D+9 advantage, it wont matter much as Romney wont have a chance.
One thing that is benefical, is those people on this forum are all a bit smarter this go around for having particpated in this discussion (especially about polls), and I am thankful for both sides input, even if we dont all agree on politcal issues.
Polls are just BS, look what happened in the 1980 election the so-called polls had Carter ahead and Reagan won in a landslide. Can't forget as that was my first election I voted in.
I've never been polled but if I was, I would lie and/or reply no comment. It's nobody's business but mine which party I support and which candidate I support.
The pollster has shown results more GOP friendly than any other pollster in the state the entire time. What is more likely, everyone else being wrong? or one of them being wrong? Also any polls conducted during and in the immediate aftermath of Sandy could have some weirdness to it (which is why Gallup suspended polling for several days). Sandy did impact much of the state, with the Philly metro area being the hardest hit.
Well, if the Philly area if having problems because of the storm...that's even worse news for obama.
The point IS: PA should not be in play, or MI, MN, WI, IA.
Other point - if all these BLUE states are this close, OHIO is already in the RED column.
Polls have become incrementally unstable, imo. Too many people have cell phones, too many people knowingly and laughingly manipulate their responses, too many people just flat don't understand the questions.
I've received 2 general election phone polls that I can recall. I was somewhat impressed with the Gallup poll questions as well as with the demeanor of the questioner, and I answered questions honestly. If they were to call me today, I would probably play with them and have a little fun instead of being straightforward.
If you read Nate Silvers latest posting, he explains this pretty well. All of the polls are simply a "snap shot" in time. And while they may all be showing Obama with a lead, if one or two is wrong, its likely they are all wrong.
Only about 10% or less of the population has been polled in states like Ohio, others don't answer the phone.
But, this level of polling participation have proven accurate in 2000, 2004, 2008, and 2010. Could they all be wrong this time? Yes, it is a possibility.
And that possibility is the only thing thats holding onto Romney's 16% chance of a win on his index. Mr. Silver is about the numbers, and the odds are clearly in Obama's favor. Its possible they are wrong, and we'll know on Tuesday if thats the case. But they have been very accurate over the last several elections, its very unlikely, about a 16% chance, that they are all wrong.
Here's the deal 1.6 million have voted early in Ohio this year. This pole says Obama leads 15 percent with people who say they voted early. Romney leads by 11 percent with those who will vote on election day. 5.6 million voted in 08. Even if turnout is down to 5 million Romney will carry Ohio with over 100,000 votes. Do the math.
Not only that. Republicans have GAINED 100,000 in registration, Democrats have LOST 150,000 in registration - a 250,000 swing.
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