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This can't be taken as a good trend by Rmoney. Rmoney has not lead in an Ohio poll in nearly two weeks. The best he could muster was a "Tie" from Gravis Marketing, which is for all intents and purposes a GOP pollster. Putting that aside, there have been 7 Ohio polls since October 13, and Obama has been up in 6 of those.
Nate Silver now has Obama's odds of winning the Buckeye State at 70 percent.
I looked at RCP first and was elated. Then I looked at this thread and became confused.The press is trying its hardest to make this race seem as competitive as possible. A five point lead 15 days from an election is indeed a very big deal (and good news for Camp Obama).
I agree. Most of these polls are just moving around within the MOE, but the news organizations make headlines out of every statistically irrelevant move.
I agree. Most of these polls are just moving around within the MOE, but the news organizations make headlines out of every statistically irrelevant move.
"Obama moves up in Ohio poll, but not as fast as he did in 2008."
"Obama only generates 80 percent turnout compared to 2008, which may be second highest turnout in history, but shows campaign is losing steam."
"Why the Obama campaign should be worried even though it leads in most swing states before Election Day."
I think they are counting the exit polls which gave Kerry Ohio in 2004..
LOL I think you're right. I'm an analyst by trade, you never go simply by the top line. That's why when libs were high fiving each other over polls showing Obama +10 in swing states I was like not so fast. He may be up but nowhere near that level.
On the surface this latest CBS poll looks good for Obama/bad for Romney but you have to dig in the weeds. An '08 advantage Obama had with Ohio Independents is now a deficit. My hunch is that the pros in Chicago are probably in crisis mode over this poll and when you consider Quinnipiac had a poll of PA where the margin is even tighter than this one. They maybe near panic.
The dam is breaking for Romney. We maybe staring at a '80 Reagan like landslide. I'd also keep an eye on CT and OR. I suspect these states will be the next to tighten.
LOL I think you're right. I'm an analyst by trade, you never go simply by the top line. That's why when libs were high fiving each other over polls showing Obama +10 in swing states I was like not so fast. He may be up but nowhere near that level.
On the surface this latest CBS poll looks good for Obama/bad for Romney but you have to dig in the weeds. An '08 advantage Obama had with Ohio Independents is now a deficit. My hunch is that the pros in Chicago are probably in crisis mode over this poll and when you consider Quinnipiac had a poll of PA where the margin is even tighter than this one. They maybe near panic.
The dam is breaking for Romney. We maybe staring at a '80 Reagan like landslide. I'd also keep an eye on CT and OR. I suspect these states will be the next to tighten.
1980 Oregon and 2012 Oregon is a completely different state, if you think that state will go Red, you are living in a fantasy world, especially since Oregon votes by mail-in ballot and most Oregonians vote before the election even happens.
Also early voting in Ohio is breaking to Dems. by a huge amount.
By a 7-point margin (as of a few days ago). Given that Democrats almost ALWAYS do better in early voting than Republicans even when Republicans win, that is not a big deal. In 2008 there was a 14-point margin. So the 7-point margin is actualy good news for Romney.
1980 Oregon and 2012 Oregon is a completely different state, if you think that state will go Red, you are living in a fantasy world, especially since Oregon votes by mail-in ballot and most Oregonians vote before the election even happens.
It's not about 1980 Oregon vs. 2012 Oregon. It's about 1980 US vs. 2012 US. In a landslide, yes, Oregon would go red. It's not one of the most Democratic states - it's really not even as blue as MI.
I do not expect Romney to win Oregon but, if he did win by more than 7-8 points or so nationally, he likely would. I simply don't expect him to win nationally by 7-8 points.
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The press is trying its hardest to make this race seem as competitive as possible. A five point lead 15 days from an election is indeed a very big deal (and good news for Camp Obama
).
