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I honestly think the transition to smart phones by an entire generation really puts a question mark on the under 35 crowd and where they stand for all polls. I haven't had a landline in 6 years. Even my parents have dumped a landline in the last 4 years.
Only thing that can be said is historically youth is the least enthusiastic voting bloc. However, the effects of Social Media, Twitter, Crowd Sourcing, etc... didn't exist until the last couple years.
It will be very interesting no matter who wins how the crowd under 35 turned out and who they voted for as it may have very long term consequences for both parties.
The young will be too lazy to go to the polls this time. It's easy to say you're voting for Obama over the phone, quite another when you have to wait in the cold to vote for someone you're not too excited about.
thatll be offset by pubs who arnt enthused about romney. remember the primaries? nobody wanted romney.
thatll be offset by pubs who arnt enthused about romney. remember the primaries? nobody wanted romney.
The empty soda can over Obama preference may be overwhelming that. If we had a Kennedy in the WH, he would crush Rmoney. Ohioans aren't as stuck up on religion as the South.
Ohio is tight. Obama is holding a 1-1.7 lead (depending on including or not including the CBS poll which is a bit of an outlier compared to the others). Either way, his lead has fallen, which means GOP enthusiasm + big gains in 'coal country' /S Ohio for Romney could spell trouble for Obama.
Yup I'm just amused about how the libs keep trying to convince themselves Ohio will go for Obama. Their angst is palatable.
I honestly think the transition to smart phones by an entire generation really puts a question mark on the under 35 crowd and where they stand for all polls. I haven't had a landline in 6 years. Even my parents have dumped a landline in the last 4 years.
Only thing that can be said is historically youth is the least enthusiastic voting bloc. However, the effects of Social Media, Twitter, Crowd Sourcing, etc... didn't exist until the last couple years.
It will be very interesting no matter who wins how the crowd under 35 turned out and who they voted for as it may have very long term consequences for both parties.
The non-landline numbers are accounted for in the statistics, at least when I heard pollsters speak on C-SPAN once.
Missing in the analysis is turnout. Hence the Obama team's desperate push for early voting. They want to get their lazy base to the polls sooner than later.
What dynamic do you see taking place? A lack of youth turnout? Incumbent fatigue?
All of the above but most importantly dissatisfaction from White voters. What folks are missing is that many White voters simply stayed home in '08. In counties, especially in rural areas where Bush won handily in '04, McCain barely won and in a few instances actually lost. The Columbus Dispatch has an excellent breakdown by region of the phenomonen. NPR in my opinion also had one of the most telling polls of the cycle when they found Romney winning by a near landslide in rural areas. Can Obama turn out his lazy unmotivated base to keep margins high enough to offset the rural tide? I'm skeptical and judging by Team Obama's behavior they are too. Then you have the suburbs polls tightening there and Romney is the kind of candidate that suburban housewives will be comfortable with.
The fire Obama, war on coal sentiment is pretty high now. Also many Dem strongholds like Cleveland have been hollowed out due to foreclosures. Where are these people?
Conclusion Ohio will break for Romney, frankly I'm beginning to think PA will too since they don't have early voting.
Missing in the analysis is turnout. Hence the Obama team's desperate push for early voting. They want to get their lazy base to the polls sooner than later.
All of the above but most importantly dissatisfaction from White voters. What folks are missing is that many White voters simply stayed home in '08. In counties, especially in rural areas where Bush won handily in '04, McCain barely won and in a few instances actually lost. The Columbus Dispatch has an excellent breakdown by region of the phenomonen. NPR in my opinion also had one of the most telling polls of the cycle when they found Romney winning by a near landslide in rural areas. Can Obama turn out his lazy unmotivated base to keep margins high enough to offset the rural tide? I'm skeptical and judging by Team Obama's behavior they are too. Then you have the suburbs polls tightening there and Romney is the kind of candidate that suburban housewives will be comfortable with.
The fire Obama, war on coal sentiment is pretty high now. Also many Dem strongholds like Cleveland have been hollowed out due to foreclosures. Where are these people?
Conclusion Ohio will break for Romney, frankly I'm beginning to think PA will too since they don't have early voting.
i dont buy that whites are motivated for romney more then they were for mccain, unless they just want to get the black man out(which i think you are inferring).
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