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Gallup evidently just shifted over from registered voters to likely voters in their polling results, and when they've done so in the past, the way that they calculated likely voters produced shifts that were very inconsistent with other polls, and very inconsistent with actual election results. For instance, in 2010 Gallup predicted a 15% advantage for R's nationally, when the actual voting results were 6.8%. Gallup is once again the outlying poll, showing numbers way off from the rest of the polling firms. The RCP average is going to be a lot more accurate.
MOST pollsters shifted to LV models, which of course will favor republicans, just as ADULTS favor dems.
Now the Lefties are crying and complaining about Gallup, what used to be their gold standard.
BTW, the REASON obama's approval number was so high was that Gallup DECREASED white vote by some 20% about a month ago.
The strategy of demonizing the opposition carried a risk of destroying the myth of the agent of hope and change and a new way of doing business in Washington, in addition to diluting the likeability factor. The hundreds of millions spent in the spring and the summer on negative campaigning may have sealed his fate.
romney isnt leading PA just because some mickey mouse poll says he is. that poll isnt even listed on 538 or rcp. its also from the examiner which means its not even credible to begin with.
here are the first two official post debate polls:
Iowa: Obama 51 Romney 43
Wisconsin: Obama 51 Romney 45.
with those being solid, that means Obama needs Ohio to win the election.
Michigan/PA are safe blue which is why i dont mention them. NH i assume is still toss up
MOST pollsters shifted to LV models, which of course will favor republicans, just as ADULTS favor dems.
Now the Lefties are crying and complaining about Gallup, what used to be their gold standard.
BTW, the REASON obama's approval number was so high was that Gallup DECREASED white vote by some 20% about a month ago.
Nate Silver: To be clear, I would not recommend that you literally just disregard the Gallup poll. You should consider it — but consider it in context.
The context is that its most recent results differ substantially from the dozens of other state and national polls about the campaign. It’s much more likely that Gallup is wrong and everyone else is right than the other way around.
Sounds like something that would attract Republicans in droves.
Nate Silver: To be clear, I would not recommend that you literally just disregard the Gallup poll. You should consider it — but consider it in context.
The context is that its most recent results differ substantially from the dozens of other state and national polls about the campaign. It’s much more likely that Gallup is wrong and everyone else is right than the other way around.
Sounds like something that would attract Republicans in droves.
I see you have received your daily dusting of Obama fairy glitter and are now snuggled up in your
Delusional day.
So now you lefties are going to discredit Gallup! The poll the left has been waxing poetic about as it showed Obama ahead. Typical hypocrisy.
Even Bob Beckel admits it might be over for Obama.
Iowa's over, early voting is making it's mark. 34% have voted with a 2 to 1 advantage for dems, there is no way the pubs can come back from this type of curb stomping. Also the latest poll confirms it, Obama is up 8.
At this point it comes down to Wisconsin and Ohio...
Romney must win a majority of
Florida
Virginia
N.C.
New Hampshire
Colorado
Nevada
If Romney wins Wisconsin he can still loose Nevada or if he wins Ohio he can loose a couple of the smaller states.
The Iowa news last night made this a much tougher map for Romney.
Also the redneck idiot who said that Silvers claim to fame was the 2008 election, obviously you couldn't be bothered to read the part that made him a rock star to math geeks. His algorithm he created improved upon sabermatics and is the standard used for the last ten years.
The poll info reflecting the 2nd debate should start coming out today and tomorrow. It will be interesting to see. On a side note, Obama has updated his web page for ythe new look of the next 4 years....
Last edited by florida.bob; 10-19-2012 at 07:50 AM..
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Re: Gallup 52-45, Lib says "it's over, if accurate"
hmm...
The poll the left has been waxing poetic about as it showed Obama ahead. Typical hypocrisy.