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Old 10-23-2012, 08:13 AM
 
6,481 posts, read 1,983,747 times
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Whatever the explanation, Silver’s strong showing in the 2008 election, coupled with his consistent predictions that Obama will win in November, has given Democrats a reason for optimism. While there is nothing wrong with trying to make sense of the polls, it should be noted that Nate Silver is openly rooting for Obama, and it shows in the way he forecasts the election.
Quote:
This is the type of analysis that walks a very thin line between forecasting and cheerleading. When you weight a poll based on what you think of the pollster and the results and not based on what is actually inside the poll (party sampling, changes in favorability, job approval, etc), it can make for forecasts that mirror what you hope will happen rather than what’s most likely to happen. This is also true of Silver’s dismissal of Romney’s lead in Gallup this week. While Romney is likely not up by seven points nationally, as the poll predicted, you can’t dismiss it while at the same time giving a twelve-day-old Marist/NBC Ohio poll a higher weighting than eight newer polls when Marist has leaned Obama this entire cycle.
Link: Nate Silver

And now any objective observer understands why Nate Silver's election "analysis" is worthless. Thank you Josh Jordan for doing a comprehensive deconstruction of Nate Silver, partisan hack.
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Old 10-23-2012, 09:02 AM
 
Location: Hinckley Ohio
6,722 posts, read 2,079,183 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Trace21230 View Post
Link: Nate Silver

And now any objective observer understands why Nate Silver's election "analysis" is worthless. Thank you Josh Jordan for doing a comprehensive deconstruction of Nate Silver, partisan hack.
You and your Blogger are clueless. Nat is a true numbers wonk, not a pretend one like Ryan. EVERY poll Nat looks at is carefully evaluated for sampling error, biases, etc and then weighted based on those factors.

By your standard I guess we all should ignore EVERY Faux Spews says, becuz they are clearly rooting for mittens.
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Old 10-23-2012, 09:13 AM
 
Location: The land where cats rule
8,294 posts, read 3,888,272 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by buzzards27 View Post
You and your Blogger are clueless. Nat is a true numbers wonk, not a pretend one like Ryan. EVERY poll Nat looks at is carefully evaluated for sampling error, biases, etc and then weighted based on those factors.

By your standard I guess we all should ignore EVERY Faux Spews says, becuz they are clearly rooting for mittens.
Actually, as I have repeatedly said for years, we should ignore all polls. They are to easy to skew, intentionally or not.

The only poll that truly matters is the election itself. Others polls are just attempting to tell those that trust them to be influenced in their favor.
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Old 10-23-2012, 09:21 AM
 
3,161 posts, read 1,160,923 times
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the blogger says silver is a partisan hack because he scientifically explains why the gallup poll is pointless.
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Old 10-23-2012, 09:28 AM
 
1,041 posts, read 1,165,494 times
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Can you really be a hack when you are right 90+% of the time?

Silver's never pretended he doesn't have personal opinions, that doesn't mean his analysis is off. When he thinks democrats are going to lose a race based on the polls he says so. The Wisconsin recall comes to mind as a recent example where he said from the start the Republican (Walker) is going to win. He's pretty much consistently said Obama is going to lose NC and Indiana and won't do as well as 2008.

Last edited by beth98; 10-23-2012 at 09:57 AM..
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Old 10-23-2012, 09:34 AM
 
14,024 posts, read 4,205,710 times
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Quote:
Whatever the explanation, Silver’s strong showing in the 2008 election, coupled with his consistent predictions that Obama will win in November, has given Democrats a reason for optimism.
Facts have a well known liberal bias.
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Old 10-23-2012, 09:46 AM
 
Location: FL
7,141 posts, read 3,233,930 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by beth98 View Post
Can you really be a hack when you are right 90+% of the time?

Silver's never pretended he doesn't have personal opinions, that doesn't mean his analysis is off. When he thinks democrats are going to lose a race based on the polls he says so. The Wisconsin recall comes to mind as a recent example where he said from the start the a Republican (Walker) is going to win. He's pretty much consistently said Obama is going to lose NC and Indiana and won't do as well as 2008.
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Old 10-23-2012, 09:49 AM
 
10,115 posts, read 3,291,031 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Arjay51 View Post
Actually, as I have repeatedly said for years, we should ignore all polls. They are to easy to skew, intentionally or not.

The only poll that truly matters is the election itself. Others polls are just attempting to tell those that trust them to be influenced in their favor.
That's why you should look at the averages of multiple polls vs. just the numbers from the outlying polls. The averages are usually pretty accurate.
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Old 10-23-2012, 10:11 AM
 
6,481 posts, read 1,983,747 times
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Jordan pretty much dismantles Silver's methodology in this article. I don't blame Obama's supporters for refusing to address that. They can't.
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Old 10-23-2012, 11:17 AM
 
12,439 posts, read 5,669,217 times
Reputation: 3107
Quote:
Originally Posted by buzzards27 View Post
You and your Blogger are clueless. Nat is a true numbers wonk, not a pretend one like Ryan. EVERY poll Nat looks at is carefully evaluated for sampling error, biases, etc and then weighted based on those factors.

By your standard I guess we all should ignore EVERY Faux Spews says, becuz they are clearly rooting for mittens.

You should avoid Fox because they outright lie. Silver has been shown to be accurate irrespective of his political leanings. He has accurately predicted Republican Senators to have won.
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