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So according to Nate Silver, Romney gains in the polls, which consequently increases Obama's chances of getting reelected?
It was 74.4 last night and did not go up or down today. Anyway, there has been no Romney gain. The national vote does not count. The only thing that changed, in RCP anyway, is that Romney went down in battleground Virginia today while Obama dropped in PA. Neither change was significant.
It was 74.4 last night and did not go up or down today. Anyway, there has been no Romney gain. The national vote does not count. The only thing that changed, in RCP anyway, is that Romney went down in battleground Virginia today while Obama dropped in PA. Neither change was significant.
The national polls don't count, because you don't want them to count. They may not be the deciding factor, but I do think that they provide some indication of momentum and general preference.
That being said (and I feel like I've been making this point for the last two months) , I think it would be naive to call the election for either candidate at this point.
Static's may be helpful, but if you've ever been to a horse race, you'd know that the stacsticians' favorite doesn't always win..
I did some fun math and figured out that if it's 65/35 on election night, Obama has a 100 percent of winning.
Now, if only we'd get a perfect 65/35 split on closing because I'd like to know if I'm correct.
The exit polling will be crucial on election day.
My guess is that if Obama wins he will lose the popular vote. It really comes down to Ohio in my opinion, like 2004. Preliminary reports are that busloads of non-citizens are being bussed to the voting booth now with instructions on how to vote. The Dems are outstanding at stealing elections. The Republicans are not yet up to speed on that method of winning elections. As has been said, it is not how people vote but who does the counting.
The national polls don't count, because you don't want them to count. They may not be the deciding factor, but I do think that they provide some indication of momentum and general preference.
That being said (and I feel like I've been making this point for the last two months) , I think it would be naive to call the election for either candidate at this point.
Static's may be helpful, but if you've ever been to a horse race, you'd know that the stacsticians' favorite doesn't always win..
Well I agree that it is way too early to call. Romney could still pull it out. I am hoping that is not the case, but it is possible.
Your link makes no sense, no matter how many times you post it.
how does Romney hold a 3 point advantage equate to a 50.3% Obama to 48.6% Romney?
Sorry, the math doesnt work. Hell, thats like 3rd grade math...
If you are not intelligent enough to understand the link, I don't know how you expect me to help you with that.
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