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Romney takes Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado and Nevada. Obama takes Pennsylvania and Michigan but race is closer than thought possible.
The good thing about all this is in less than a week we will all know for sure.
I have really no idea. I've followed the polls pretty closely and Romney has had a solid albeit slight lead for the past couple weeks. Right now Rasmussen has a dead tie, Gallup has Mitt up 5. I dont see a reason for a change from the trend of 2010. Romney has run consistently to the right, and conservative voters are enthused. People tend to vote their pocketbook in bad economic times.
But still many knowlegable people still give Obama a solid edge. Intrade has Obama at 67.
I just don't think anyone knows. We think we can answer any question, predict any outcome, given enough data and intel, but sometimes we can't.
I have really no idea. I've followed the polls pretty closely and Romney has had a solid albeit slight lead for the past couple weeks. Right now Rasmussen has a dead tie, Gallup has Mitt up 5. I dont see a reason for a change from the trend of 2010. Romney has run consistently to the right, and conservative voters are enthused. People tend to vote their pocketbook in bad economic times.
But still many knowlegable people still give Obama a solid edge. Intrade has Obama at 67.
I just don't think anyone knows. We think we can answer any question, predict any outcome, given enough data and intel, but sometimes we can't.
I've said many times, we've been waiting for 2012.
I don't see Obama losing WI; I do see CO and OH is real possibilities for Roms. Mitt could also win NV, which could be enough to give him the electoral college win if Obama loses in Ohio.
I think we can all agree that the 2008 presidential election is not a useful precedent to follow in this election, nor is 1996. The 2004 and 2000 elections seem to be more indicative of how this race could turn out. In those elections, the Democrats carried Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. The Republicans took Florida, and they also took the Western states of Colorado and Nevada. In 2008 there was widespread voter dissatisfaction among conservatives and right-leaning moderates, some of whom are occasionally open to voting for a Democrat.
Voters in Ohio are working class whites, who want confidence in the economy, but once they feel confident in the economy, they immediately check that off their list and go to 'values' and 'national security' issues. I think that, fair or not, Ohioans are not going to give Obama enough credit for the economy, and they're going to default to the other issues (i.e. concerns about a changing society, and their general impression about the direction of the country).
The electorate in Florida is more complex. The seniors will vote Democrat when they're worried about things like social security and medicare. The healthcare law that Obama put into effect threatens to make changes that could affect them, and they're not sure what to make of it. Beyond that, I think that the election of Rubio sealed the deal for the GOP in 2012. It was a hard state to win from the beginning. To a lesser degree, Obama's treatment of controversial issues such as a thawing of relations with Cuba and disagreements about Israeli settlement building have made him less popular with key constituencies.
I think this election will be highly regionalized, with Romney dominating most of the eastern U.S. and Romney taking most of the western states. The election will come down to two big issues that have dogged the election cycle: 1) Will Obama's healthcare proposal be so politically unpopular that it costs him the normally-safe stronghold of New Hampshire? 2) Will Hispanic voters be so outraged by Republicans that they show up in massive numbers on election day to secure a victory for Obama in Colorado and Nevada?
I think New Hampshire will be extremely close -- much closer than Obama wants it to be. Pennsylvania might also be a little too close for comfort. However, I think Obama's response to Sandy might be just enough to convince some of the remaining voters who are on the fence to vote for Obama. I also think Mitt has struggled to finish with strong momentum in the closing days of the election. Personally, I think most of the voters who are thinking of voting for Mitt are probably not inclined to vote for Obama; it's just now a matter of whether or not they choose to vote or stay home. This race will come down to whichever campaign does a better job at motivating its supporters to show up and vote. The Obama campaign has historically been strong in that department.
Last edited by chickenfriedbananas; 11-03-2012 at 01:28 PM..
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No idea but I'll give it a shot
