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that post there, shows you either have your head in the sand, or know nothing about politics. Listen put your views aside, not all register voters vote.
That is true, but the term "likely voter" is a bit fickle and seems to change from day to day on what that even means.
If someone says they "might vote" or "probably will vote" or "thinking about voting" or "potentially could vote but not sure yet." are those people any less "likely voters" or are they more "likely voters?"
It is much better to go off of what registered voters are saying and focusing on trying to get everyone out to vote so that as many registered voters actually vote. If you only rely on "likely voters" then you are missing out on a group of people that need to be energized to vote.
Well actually they do. They look at the last presidential poll and adjust based on voter turnout and how that election went. Thry have to adjust because they take such a small polling sample. What their mistake this time is, that 2008 was historic when people were voting for the first black president and republicans were staying home because of their luke warm feelings for Mccain.
They are adjusting their polls as high as +9 dems. That will not happen. I see it more like +2 republican. You adjust it that way and these polls would show a whole different result.
This is false, polls are not adjusted based on prior election turnout. One conservative blog mentioned this 2 months ago and republicans have been running with this lie since then.
I think we can tell it will be all over early on Tuesday evening if Obama wins any of the 3; FL, NC or VA. Any of those three will make Romney's task pretty much undoable.
Glad you see it that way. Romney's ahead in all three.
And that's mostly from polls that assume far more Democrats will vote than Republicans. Even with such Democrat-heavy polls, they still can't eke out a win.
And if more Republicans vote than Dems instead (exactly what happened in 2010 after the public got a good dose of Obamacare and Obamanomics), then Romney's margins will be far greater that even these poll are projecting.
If you only rely on "likely voters" then you are missing out on a group of people that need to be energized to vote.
i.e. people who mostly won't vote, so you were right to exclude them from your poll. Especially if you want your poll's prediction to match what people actually do on Tuesday.
Many polls choose "likely voters" based on whether they voted in the last Presidential election (2008), or whether they voted in the last national election (2010), etc. For very young voters who were not eligible to vote in the previous elections, it's harder to predict "likelihood" of voting.
Most polls today use the "last-Presidential-election" method. They also weight their results based on how many women vs. men voted in the last Pres election, how many black vs. white, how many upper vs. lower income etc. etc.
Some, such as Gallup, do NOT deliberately weight according to how many Dem vs. Republican. But the weighting factors they DO use (see above), usually winds up giving them many more Democrat respondents than Republican respondents anyway. The skew of Democrats over Republicans becomes ludicrously lopsided in some of them, even if they weren't trying to make it that way... as we will find out this Tuesday.
The fact that, while more women voted in 2008 than men, there is ample reason to believe it will be the other way in 2012, is never taken into account by most. Ditto for the other factors they use to weight their calculated results. Many of these polls simply assume the turnout in 2012 will be similar to the turnout in 2008.
But polling companies who bother to look at what is actually going on (Republican registrations soaring while Dem registrations are falling sharply; early voting in most states that have it, finding far more Republicans voting than Dems etc.) rather than relying on blank assumptions based on what happened in the past, are finding that the Democrat-heavy assumptions are likely to be very wrong when the real votes are counted on Tuesday.
Last edited by Little-Acorn; 11-04-2012 at 11:49 AM..
Glad you see it that way. Romney's ahead in all three.
And that's mostly from polls that assume far more Democrats will vote than Republicans. Even with such Democrat-heavy polls, they still can't eke out a win.
And if more Republicans vote than Dems instead (exactly what happened in 2010 after the public got a good dose of Obamacare and Obamanomics), then Romney's margins will be far greater that even these poll are projecting.
Gallup has Obama leading Romney with registered voters, and registered voters determine the election, unless Republicans are planning to win with unregistered voters
Registered voters that actually vote call the election, not those merely registered to vote.
Registered voters that actually vote call the election, not those merely registered to vote.
But it is near impossible to tell who those are that will actually vote will be until after they have voted. One is better off looking at what registered voters are saying and try to energize that group to actually vote rather than rely on "likely voters" which doesn't tell you if those people will or will not vote, nor does it tell you that the ones that are classified as regular registered voters will or won't vote.
If that's true, then they've been brainwashed or something. Conservatives DO NOT vote for Obama if they know anything at all about the facts.
So who told you that logic? Conservatives can't vote for Democrats? That is like saying Liberals can't vote for Republicans.....it is purely stupid logic.
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