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Turnout in NOVA took a big hit in 2009 and the Dem nominee Creigh Deeds was a terible fit for the state.
He was a great fit for the state. He's the quintessential Virginia Democrat a la Mark Warner (who would be the first Democrat I'd vote for if he ran for President). He was just a bad fit for NoVa because he grew up in Appalachia and didn't fit in with the national machinery.
I think Florida might be very, very close and require a recount. That's why I hesitated voting by absentee ballot since they sit in a pile until after the polls close. Maybe it won't matter, but there are 2 words that make me worry about a recount. Ken Detzner
I think Obama will easily win Virginia. I agree that, if he does, it's over for Romney. However, we all need to wait. I just read on Huffington Post of all places that Romney will win. Still, I've followed Nate Silver for a while and he's usually spot on, so I hope he's right and President Obama will win with over 300 electoral college votes.
I would love to believe the H Post, but I don't believe anything they say, as for Nate, he can be spot on all he wants, but no one is always right and my guess, this time he is going to be off: maybe not, but I don't see Obama winning VA easily like you are saying..If he wins it will be a hell of a lot closer than 4 years ago.
I would love to believe the H Post, but I don't believe anything they say, as for Nate, he can be spot on all he wants, but no one is always right and my guess, this time he is going to be off: maybe not, but I don't see Obama winning VA easily like you are saying..If he wins it will be a hell of a lot closer than 4 years ago.
You might be right. But if Nate Silver is far off this time, it will really hurt his credibility. We will know soon enough. He's giving Obama a 79% chance of winning VA. That doesn't mean he's sure he will win VA, only that his chances are very strong. Florida turned light blue last night, but Obama is only given a 50.3% chance according to the 538 blog. That's why I think it will come down to the wire in Florida. I mean, 50-50 is a coin toss! People keep asking why so many people are standing in lines instead of voting by mail. Maybe it's because FL is always so close and they don't feel comfortable mailing in a ballot. You might think I'm silly, but I didn't feel too confident when I dropped my ballot into the box, as I've mentioned a few times on this forum. I still don't understand why the signature has to be on the outside of the envelope.
Huffington has Virginia at 49-47 for Obama, with 96% confidence. Ohio is 49-46 for Obama with 100% confidence.
They have N. Carolina at 49-47 for Romney with 90% confidence. Florida is a dead tossup at 48-48, with 68% confidence for Obama. Colorado and N. Hamphire, the other two tossup states are both 49-47 for Obama, with 92% confidence in Colorado and 97% confidence in N. Hampshire.
All this was at 2:00 pm, mountain standard time here. I'm sure Florida will swing around all night.
I doubt that. There is a difference between governors race and presidential race. Keep in mind North Carolina has had democratic governors for over 20 years straight and the state has gone red for the presidential elections all during that time until 2008 When Obama won NC. Also how do you explain liberal Massachusetts voters electing Mitt Romney as governor while voting for the democratic candidate during presidential elections?
But Virginia is key during the early hours. An Obama win there tells us Romney will have a bad night for sure.
Very heavy voting today in Virginia as the weather was good. A good sign for democrats!
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Still, I've followed Nate Silver for a while and he's usually spot on, so I hope he's right and President Obama will win with over 300 electoral college votes.
