U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Politics and Other Controversies > Elections
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
Reply Start New Thread
 
Old 11-06-2012, 07:31 AM
 
12,439 posts, read 9,952,483 times
Reputation: 3129

Advertisements

Nate Silver now only gives Romeny a 8% chance of winning.

Nate Silver - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 11-06-2012, 08:25 AM
 
Location: University City, Philadelphia
22,583 posts, read 11,766,291 times
Reputation: 15398
I don't have a crystal ball and I cannot predict the future. Neither does Mr. Silver.

It's going to be close. It's a nail-biter!
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 11-06-2012, 09:58 AM
 
12,439 posts, read 9,952,483 times
Reputation: 3129
Quote:
Originally Posted by Clark Park View Post
I don't have a crystal ball and I cannot predict the future. Neither does Mr. Silver.

It's going to be close. It's a nail-biter!
He is not using at crystal ball. He is using statistical analysis. I don't think it will be close at all.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 11-06-2012, 09:59 AM
 
Location: SE Arizona - FINALLY! :D
18,946 posts, read 21,933,320 times
Reputation: 6537
Quote:
Originally Posted by hotair2 View Post
He is not using at crystal ball. He is using statistical analysis. I don't think it will be close at all.
You are right - it's not a crystal ball, it's statistical analysis.
The only question is - "How good is the analysis?"
We'll know that by tonight (hopefully).

Nates' projected EV count:

Obama - 313
Romney - 225

Ken
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 11-06-2012, 10:02 AM
 
12,439 posts, read 9,952,483 times
Reputation: 3129
Quote:
Originally Posted by LordBalfor View Post
You are right - it's not a crystal ball, it's statistical analysis.
The only question is - "How good is the analysis?"
We'll know that by tonight (hopefully).

Nate projected EV count:

Obama - 313
Romney - 225

Ken
Yep.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 11-06-2012, 10:04 AM
 
Location: Greenbelt, MD
8,592 posts, read 6,110,843 times
Reputation: 42313
I hope he is right but it is important that Obama supporters get out and vote. I'm taking nothing for granted.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 11-06-2012, 10:07 AM
 
12,439 posts, read 9,952,483 times
Reputation: 3129
Quote:
Originally Posted by John13 View Post
I hope he is right but it is important that Obama supporters get out and vote. I'm taking nothing for granted.
Absolutely.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 11-06-2012, 10:19 AM
 
10,148 posts, read 13,838,845 times
Reputation: 4567
Quote:
Originally Posted by hotair2 View Post
Nate Silver now only gives Romeny a 8% chance of winning.

Nate Silver - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com
Intrade is still at 72.5%.

Swing-State Map, List & Polls - POLITICO.com

If you believe that Politico map, Romney needs 34 more to get a tie.
How can he get 34 more?
He'd have to win at least 3 of these states where he is behind.

It's oooooover.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 11-06-2012, 10:26 AM
 
Location: Woodland Park, CO
3,133 posts, read 9,102,887 times
Reputation: 2463
Rove is predicting 285 Romney, 253 Obama.

Quote:
Without twelve toss up states (MN, NV, CO, IA, WI, MI, OH, PA, NH, VA, NC, AND FL), Mitt Romney and Barack Obama are tied at 191 each. I predict Mr. Romney will win FL (29), NC (15), VA (13), NH (4), OH (18), IA (6), CO (9) and Mr. Obama will get MN (10), NV (6), WI (10), MI (16), PA (20). This brings Mr. Romney to 285 Electoral College votes and Mr. Obama to 253. These are just my base predictions and I still think several of these states are too close to call. For example, while I put them in Mr. Obama's column, I still believe NV, WI, and PA are in play and very winnable for Mr. Romney. If crowds at his recent stops in these states are any indication of his supporters' enthusiasm, Mr. Romney will likely be able to claim victory in these states as well.

For the sake of America, I hope he is right.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 11-06-2012, 10:29 AM
 
25,339 posts, read 37,471,570 times
Reputation: 13261
Nate Silver...never heard of him...lol
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:

Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Politics and Other Controversies > Elections
Follow City-Data.com founder on our Forum or

All times are GMT -6.

© 2005-2018, Advameg, Inc.

City-Data.com - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35 - Top