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Old 04-23-2014, 06:19 PM
 
Location: NJ
18,677 posts, read 16,467,762 times
Reputation: 7274

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Quote:
Originally Posted by wjtwet View Post
If the Obama economy has been great for young voters they will stick with the democrats if on the other hand the young voters still have a hard time finding a job they will switch.
Basically if you like how things are going by 2016 you will stick with a democrat if you do not they might look for a change

They must have thought the economy was wonderful than in 2012. They stayed the course.
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Old 04-24-2014, 08:26 AM
 
Location: Bella Vista, Ark
69,422 posts, read 79,637,759 times
Reputation: 38734
Quote:
Originally Posted by bobtn View Post
They must have thought the economy was wonderful than in 2012. They stayed the course.
there is no way one can compare 2012 to what might lay ahead. 2012, bad Republican candidate: sitting President, more minorities, especially blacks turned out to vote than normally is the case (2008 was the exception) No one in their right mind thought the economy was doing ok, but to defeat a sitting Pres is all by impossible. It does happen, 1980 and 1992 are examples of that. I don't count Ford as he was not an elected President.
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Old 04-24-2014, 09:25 AM
 
Location: Tennessee
33,970 posts, read 32,438,670 times
Reputation: 49941
Quote:
Originally Posted by LexusNexus View Post
Support appears to be gaining for Hillary Clinton to succeed the great President Obama as President of the United States in 2016. She would be the first WOMAN to hold that position, a result of the CHANGE that President Obama represents. Should would get even more support than President Obama did in this last election, completely obliterating the GOP opposition. The GOP will again waste a FORTUNE in the losing effort. Imagine her having Colin Powell as her running mate. How about an Latino as her running mate, or an Asian? Maybe she would pick someone who is of mixed-race and GAY? Any combination dooms the hapless GOP. There isn't a GOP candidate alive who could compete.

Former top Obama aides join pro-Hillary effort - First Read
This is a very funny post. You are saying Hillary acting like a racist (skin color would matter most in her VP choice) and her having a vagina makes her a better President and it would be even better if her VP pick was gay, too. Heck, let's go for an ex-con, native american, gay, quadrapeligic for her VP pick. You can put it on a bumper sticker, tee shirt or green bag to make Hillary voters feel smug about themselves.
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Old 04-24-2014, 12:26 PM
 
Location: NJ
18,677 posts, read 16,467,762 times
Reputation: 7274
Quote:
Originally Posted by nmnita View Post
there is no way one can compare 2012 to what might lay ahead. .

Nonsense. When 18 states plus DC have voted the same way for 6 straight elections, when they plus deographically changed Va and NM start the Dems off at 260, when Hispanics vote Democratic POTUS by over a 45 point margin, when single women go 67-31 Obama, and when 48 of fifty states vote exactly the same in 2012 as 2008, one would have to bury their head in the sand to not understand the magnitude of the dire GOP situation for POTUS.

The numbers always, always, always tell the story. Nothing else matters, it is about only one party having a realistic path to 270.

The GOP path can only start by becoming relevent in at minimum 2 or 3 of the 18 states blue since 1988.
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Old 04-24-2014, 01:33 PM
 
Location: High Cotton
6,131 posts, read 6,252,688 times
Reputation: 3657
Scumbag Hillary will be the next POTUS without much doubt. Dumbocrats get things done whether we like what it is, or not. Republicans just talk about what should be done - but NEVER do anything. The Republicans are worthless. At least the scumbag Dumbocrats will take action, which is not the case with any Republicans. Not a single one...
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Old 04-24-2014, 01:53 PM
 
5,817 posts, read 2,076,886 times
Reputation: 2897
Quote:
Originally Posted by bobtn View Post
Nonsense. When 18 states plus DC have voted the same way for 6 straight elections, when they plus deographically changed Va and NM start the Dems off at 260, when Hispanics vote Democratic POTUS by over a 45 point margin, when single women go 67-31 Obama, and when 48 of fifty states vote exactly the same in 2012 as 2008, one would have to bury their head in the sand to not understand the magnitude of the dire GOP situation for POTUS.

The numbers always, always, always tell the story. Nothing else matters, it is about only one party having a realistic path to 270.

The GOP path can only start by becoming relevent in at minimum 2 or 3 of the 18 states blue since 1988.
If the GOP wants to change their luck in POTUS elections, they need to try one of 2 tactics;

1.) make a deal on immigration reform which allows a path to citizenship for illegal aliens in exchange for implementing e-verify, strong sanctions including incarceration for employers who knowingly hire illegals, and increased border security. The problem for the GOP with Hispanics are with the 50,000 Hispanics who reach voting age every month in this country, not the illegals. But as Marco Rubio said, "it's hard to get someone to listen to your ideas when you're trying to deport their grandmother." The fate of the illegals already here has to be taken off the table before the GOP can hope to compete for those new voters, and they'll be over 2 million of those potential new voters with every 4 year cycle. The longer the current situation continues, the longer those new voters are likely to trend democratic and despite the old adage that you become conservative when you have something to conserve, if a person votes one way for 3 or 4 elections in a row, they usually vote that way for life.

2.). If the base of the GOP refuses to allow an immigration deal, double down on turning the industrial Midwest and Pennsylvania Republican. No area of the nation is becoming whiter, but Iowa, Michigan, New Hampshire,
Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are and will continue to be whiter than the nation as a whole. Pursuing a white vote strategy will ultimately be futile, but as a stopgap measure there's a chance it could be successful in the short term. Whether they can turn those northern states without changing policies is questionable, but it's their best option they have if they are unable to improve their percentage of minority voting.

Last edited by Bureaucat; 04-24-2014 at 02:20 PM..
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Old 04-24-2014, 05:56 PM
 
Location: NJ
18,677 posts, read 16,467,762 times
Reputation: 7274
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bureaucat View Post
If the GOP wants to change their luck in POTUS elections, they need to try one of 2 tactics;

1.) make a deal on immigration reform which allows a path to citizenship for illegal aliens in exchange for implementing e-verify, strong sanctions including incarceration for employers who knowingly hire illegals, and increased border security. The problem for the GOP with Hispanics are with the 50,000 Hispanics who reach voting age every month in this country, not the illegals. But as Marco Rubio said, "it's hard to get someone to listen to your ideas when you're trying to deport their grandmother." The fate of the illegals already here has to be taken off the table before the GOP can hope to compete for those new voters, and they'll be over 2 million of those potential new voters with every 4 year cycle. The longer the current situation continues, the longer those new voters are likely to trend democratic and despite the old adage that you become conservative when you have something to conserve, if a person votes one way for 3 or 4 elections in a row, they usually vote that way for life.

2.). If the base of the GOP refuses to allow an immigration deal, double down on turning the industrial Midwest and Pennsylvania Republican. No area of the nation is becoming whiter, but Iowa, Michigan, New Hampshire,
Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are and will continue to be whiter than the nation as a whole. Pursuing a white vote strategy will ultimately be futile, but as a stopgap measure there's a chance it could be successful in the short term. Whether they can turn those northern states without changing policies is questionable, but it's their best option they have if they are unable to improve their percentage of minority voting.
I agree with 1, disagree with 2. The pursue the white male Southern Strategy got the GOP in this POTUS mess. The Southern EC pool alienated it from the populated regions north of the Mason Dixon, as well as the West Coast, and the changing demographic regions like Va and NM. The GOP now essentially owns a permanent minority share of the EC-the old Confederacy plus the states with more bison than people in the upper Northwest. A minority share of the EC is as worthless as a McGovern share of the EC, meaning 1 EC and 268 ECs are the same..a losing formula.

So again, strategy 1 is good, as would be taking NO official position on Pro Life/choice. Roe v Wade isn't going away, so there is no reason to alienate single women as their pro choice plank does.
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Old 04-24-2014, 07:29 PM
 
5,817 posts, read 2,076,886 times
Reputation: 2897
Quote:
Originally Posted by bobtn View Post
I agree with 1, disagree with 2. The pursue the white male Southern Strategy got the GOP in this POTUS mess. The Southern EC pool alienated it from the populated regions north of the Mason Dixon, as well as the West Coast, and the changing demographic regions like Va and NM. The GOP now essentially owns a permanent minority share of the EC-the old Confederacy plus the states with more bison than people in the upper Northwest. A minority share of the EC is as worthless as a McGovern share of the EC, meaning 1 EC and 268 ECs are the same..a losing formula.

So again, strategy 1 is good, as would be taking NO official position on Pro Life/choice. Roe v Wade isn't going away, so there is no reason to alienate single women as their pro choice plank does.
I don't really disagree with what you said. For option 2 to work, the GOP would have to base their focus on the Industrial Midwest and Pennsylvania. I doubt very much that a Tea Party flavored GOP would do well there. If they moved more to the center and pursued northern white moderates they could very well turn a couple of weaker links in the blue wall red. They would still have the deep red states in their corner. The problem of course, is that their own base would prevent such a move. If politics now operated as they did in the smoked filled rooms of the early 20th century, the bosses of the GOP would probably be able to nominate a more electable ticket than the base will allow now.

Actually there are 4 issues that in the long term are killing the GOP's chances in POTUS races.

1. HEALTHCARE. Yes I know that the GOP may score a big win in 2014 bashing the Dems on Obamacare, but then what? Unless they get a veto proof majority in both houses of Congress, it will be 2017 at the earliest before they could repeal the ACA, which means millions more will be covered. Even the TP Senator from Wisconsin said that they can't just repeal it, but must replace it with something. Replace it with what? The Bobby Jindal plan is a joke. The Genesis of the ACA was a Republican think tank plan that was based on the inevitability of Universal Health Coverage finally coming to America. Since we were the last country in the developed world to embrace Universal Health Care, it was a pretty safe bet. The plan was to maximize the role of the private sector in establishing a Universal Health Care system. Since the base rejected that and has fought tooth and nail against the most conservative version of Universal Care imaginable, they really have no fall back position when they inevitably lose. They vowed to repeal Social Security in the '30s and '40s before it became political poison to oppose it. In the '60s and '70s they screamed against Medicare, until they finally had to accept political reality. Does anyone really think that continued opposition to what is now an accepted World Standard (Universal Health Care) will be more successful? You would think that they would do what they could to make sure that the current system is successful because the obvious option is a Single Payer System.

2. IMMIGRATION REFORM. As I listed above, if the GOP can't solve its problems with Hispanic Voters, they are in a "Demographic Death Spiral" as Lindsay Graham stated. The professional pols know how important to the future of the party this issue is, but the base refuses to budge in allowing a path to citizenship for illegal aliens and without that, there's not much of a chance to keep that ever increasing hispanic vote from going heavily to the Democrats.

3. ABORTION As long as GOP primary voters allow candidates like Todd Akin or Richard Mourdoch talk about "legitimate rape" or "during rape the reproductive system shuts down to prevent pregnancy" or "if a pregnancy occurs during a rape it's Gods Will" they can forget about winning the majority of votes cast by young women.

4. GAY RIGHTS. Support for gay marriage goes far beyond the gay community and leftist Democrats. It's a fairness issue for millions of young people.

If a moderate, economically conservative, social libertarian Republican Party were to arise out of the mess that is now the Southern dominated GOP, it could become a truly national party in Presidential elections like it was thirty or forty years ago, but there's no evidence at all that that is happening. I have faith that the GOP will survive, because successful parties change as the country changes, but a lot will have to change before that will happen.

Last edited by Bureaucat; 04-24-2014 at 07:42 PM..
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Old 04-24-2014, 07:43 PM
 
Location: SE Arizona - FINALLY! :D
18,980 posts, read 21,969,178 times
Reputation: 6553
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bureaucat View Post
I don't really disagree with what you said. For option 2 to work, the GOP would have to base their focus on the Industrial Midwest and Pennsylvania. I doubt very much that a Tea Party flavored GOP would do well there. If they moved more to the center and pursued northern white moderates they could very well turn a couple of weaker links in the blue wall red. They would still have the deep red states in their corner. The problem of course, is that their own base would prevent such a move. If politics now operated as they did in the smoked filled rooms of the early 20th century, the bosses of the GOP would probably be able to nominate a more electable ticket than the base will allow now.

Actually there are 4 issues that in the long term are killing the GOP's chances in POTUS races.

1. HEALTHCARE. Yes I know that the GOP may score a big win in 2014 bashing the Dems on Obamacare, but then what? Unless they get a veto proof majority in both houses of Congress, it will be 2017 at the earliest before they could repeal the ACA, which means millions more will be covered. Even the TP Senator from Wisconsin said that they can't just repeal it, but must replace it with something. Replace it with what? The Bobby Jindal plan is a joke. The Genesis of the ACA was a Republican think tank plan that was based on the inevitability of Universal Health Coverage finally coming to America. Since we were the last country in the developed world to embrace Universal Health Care, it was a pretty safe bet. The plan was to maximize the role of the private sector in establishing a Universal Health Care system. Since the base rejected that and has fought tooth and nail against the most conservative version of Universal Care imaginable, they really have no fall back position when they inevitably lose. They vowed to repeal Social Security in the '30s and '40s before it became political poison to oppose it. In the '60s and '70s they screamed against Medicare, until they finally had to accept political reality. Does anyone really think that continued opposition to what is now an accepted World Standard (Universal Health Care) will be more successful? You would think that they would do what they could to make sure that the current system is successful because the obvious option is a Single Payer System.

2. IMMIGRATION REFORM. As I listed above, if the GOP can't solve its problems with Hispanic Voters, they are in a "Demographic Death Spiral" as Lindsay Graham stated. The professional pols know how important to the future of the party this issue is, but the base refuses to budge in allowing a path to citizenship for illegal aliens and without that, there's not much of a chance to keep that ever increasing hispanic vote from going heavily to the Democrats.

3. ABORTION As long as GOP primary voters allow candidates like Todd Akin or Richard Mourdoch talk about "legitimate rape" or "during rape the reproductive system shuts down to prevent pregnancy" or "if a pregnancy occurs during a rape it's Gods Will" they can forget about winning the majority of votes cast by young women.

4. GAY RIGHTS. Support for gay marriage goes far beyond the gay community and leftist Democrats. It's a fairness issue for millions of young people.

If a moderate, economically conservative, social libertarian Republican Party were to arise out of the mess that is now the Southern dominated GOP, it could become a truly national party in Presidential elections like it was thirty or forty years ago, but there's no evidence at all that that is happening. I have faith that the GOP will survive, because successful parties change as the country changes, but a lot will have to change before that will happen.
Yup. They have to essentially quit being what Republicans are today.

Ken
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Old 04-24-2014, 09:03 PM
 
Location: Texas
23,850 posts, read 10,041,292 times
Reputation: 5334
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mathguy View Post
Why are you guys so excited about Hillary? Honest question.

It just means more wallstreet guys in the admin....more monsanto running the fda....more union busting legislation like NAFTA....more outsourcing masters like Immelt as the "jobs czar"....more foreign bombing, wire tapping....sigh.

It's really quite sad to see people that hated Bush 2.0, keep Bush 3.0 in office for 8 years and now rah rahing for Bush 4.0.

The rebuttal I generally hear is "Well they are better than the republican choice." Yeah...that's a real victory since the democratic option is to run a less far right republican for president. Sigh.
Obama is Bush 4.
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