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Old 06-19-2014, 01:33 PM
 
Location: San Antonio Texas
11,435 posts, read 16,004,154 times
Reputation: 5224

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Quote:
Originally Posted by nmnita View Post
and this is exactly why, if she runs she might run into a lot of trouble: her lack of overall appeal. She just isn't exciting. I know, this should not have a thing to do with electing our President, but like it or not it does. For whatever reason she comes across as manipulating, cranky, cold and a __itch.
I have to disagree. I attend the local Dem primary event in San Antonio, Tex, a state that Hillary eventually won. Obama only won because he's black in a party of which African americans are a major constituency. She's certainly not as exciting as Obama or her husband, but she will be our next President.
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Old 06-19-2014, 04:59 PM
 
Location: NJ
18,677 posts, read 16,509,286 times
Reputation: 7274
Quote:
Originally Posted by wehotex View Post
I have to disagree. I attend the local Dem primary event in San Antonio, Tex, a state that Hillary eventually won. Obama only won because he's black in a party of which African americans are a major constituency. She's certainly not as exciting as Obama or her husband, but she will be our next President.
Excitement has never been a requirement. Most of our presidents have been dull to average in terms of spark.
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Old 06-19-2014, 05:45 PM
 
5,887 posts, read 2,099,985 times
Reputation: 2933
Quote:
Originally Posted by bobtn View Post
Excitement has never been a requirement. Most of our presidents have been dull to average in terms of spark.
The fact that Lurch Kerry got within 18 EV of beating an incumbent President in 2004 is testament that charisma isn't necessarily needed to win.
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Old 06-19-2014, 05:58 PM
 
Location: NJ
18,677 posts, read 16,509,286 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bureaucat View Post
The fact that Lurch Kerry got within 18 EV of beating an incumbent President in 2004 is testament that charisma isn't necessarily needed to win.
True. That should have been the great wake up call for the GOP. This was the Democrat's version of Bush-Quayle 1992 (w/o being incumbent, no less), a "You've got to be kidding me ticket", and the GOP could not, at minimum, match either Clinton's or Obama's worst, 332 ECs. It was the strongest symbol possible of a demographic shift of America, extremely favorable to the "Big Tent Democratic party".

20 years earlier, Kerry gets under 150 electoral votes.
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Old 06-19-2014, 06:00 PM
 
Location: SE Arizona - FINALLY! :D
19,003 posts, read 22,018,039 times
Reputation: 6558
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bureaucat View Post
The fact that Lurch Kerry got within 18 EV of beating an incumbent President in 2004 is testament that charisma isn't necessarily needed to win.
LOL
Yeah, "Lerch" Kerry is not exactly "Mr Personality".

Ken
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Old 06-19-2014, 06:00 PM
 
Location: Area 51.5
13,904 posts, read 11,059,637 times
Reputation: 9036
Quote:
Originally Posted by nmnita View Post
I am sure the Democrats realize she has to separate herself from Obama if she intends on being the candidate in 2016. Otherwise she is doomed. We will see how she really feels when we get into debate season and there will be challengers to her if she decides to run.
As I've said several times, I salivate at the thought of a debate between her and Jeb. Jeb would mop the floor with her. His class, knowledge, and general demeanor would have her screeching.
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Old 06-19-2014, 06:05 PM
 
Location: Area 51.5
13,904 posts, read 11,059,637 times
Reputation: 9036
[quote=Bureaucat;35302366]
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dale Cooper View Post
Yes, she did. Many, many people voted because of Palin. I am one of them. I would never in a million years have voted for McCain alone. I voted for him ONLY because I had to vote for him to vote for Palin.

You're right that he wasn't going to win, no matter what, but he got a huge portion of the votes because of, not in spite of Palin.

I personally heard only one single person say he was voting specifically for McCain.

The McCain/Palin ticket was one of a kind. Never before and probably never again can I imagine voting for a presidential candidate because of the VP pick.
The Red Wall is going to smash Hillary. Blow her away. I can't wait.


Your red wall is a few bricks shy of a load.
I'm not editing my quote of your post because it proves who's really shy of a full load.
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Old 06-19-2014, 06:16 PM
 
5,887 posts, read 2,099,985 times
Reputation: 2933
[quote=Dale Cooper;35308424]
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bureaucat View Post

I'm not editing my quote of your post because it proves who's really shy of a full load.
Your wall needs a few more bricks, as in the form of a few more states. Unless you can pull a couple of states away from the Dems, a Republican win is like trying to draw into an inside straight. Possible, but damned unlikely.

By the way, if you think what I said was a personal attack, you're as mistaken about that as you are about nearly everything else. I was referring to the lack of electoral votes in the Republican base.

Some things to consider.

The 18 states that have voted together to form the Blue Wall for 6 straight Presidential elections is the largest group of states to vote Democratic in successive elections since the Democratic Party was founded by Andrew Jackson in 1828. If you asked Joe Biden about that, he would probably wax eloquently that "It's a Big F*****g Deal!"

With 18 states and DC accounting for 242 EV the Democrats have 90% of the votes needed for a victory in their base states. To win, the GOP must win 91% of everything else (270 of the 296 left).

If the Blue Wall holds and the Democrats happen to win Florida, the election is over even if the GOP wins every other state. (242 + 29 = 271).

In the two narrow wins pieced together by George W. Bush, he won by carrying Colorado, Florida, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia both times. Carrying Colorado, Florida and Nevada are going to be increasingly difficult with the Hispanic vote increasing with each passing election unless you can woo them, which is highly improbable with the Steve King's and Tom Tancredo's of the world playing to the nativist fears of the far right. The Dems don't have to pander to win their votes as long as that's the tone of the Republican Party.

Virginia and New Mexico are probably out of reach for the GOP by 2016 and with their 18 EV, the Dem total rises to 260, or 96% of the votes needed to elect. The GOP would have to win 270 of the 278 EV remaining or 97%.

Of the 14 states that are remotely competitive, only 3 would be favored to swing to the Republicans in a dead even national race; Florida, Ohio and North Carolina.

It's not impossible for the Republicans to win the Presidency, but unless something dramatically changes, those chances are lessening with each POTUS election.

Last edited by Bureaucat; 06-19-2014 at 07:16 PM..
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Old 06-19-2014, 06:17 PM
 
Location: Area 51.5
13,904 posts, read 11,059,637 times
Reputation: 9036
[quote=Bureaucat;35308563]
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dale Cooper View Post

Your wall needs a few more bricks, as in the form of a few more states. Unless you can pull a couple of states away from the Dems, a Republican win is like trying to draw into an inside straight. Possible, but damned unlikely.
Do you not know how to quote a post? Or edit it if you goof it up?

Post 781. It's impossible to tell who said what:

[quote=Dale Cooper;35287209]Yes, she did. Many, many people voted because of Palin. I am one of them. I would never in a million years have voted for McCain alone. I voted for him ONLY because I had to vote for him to vote for Palin.

You're right that he wasn't going to win, no matter what, but he got a huge portion of the votes because of, not in spite of Palin.

I personally heard only one single person say he was voting specifically for McCain.

The McCain/Palin ticket was one of a kind. Never before and probably never again can I imagine voting for a presidential candidate because of the VP pick.
The Red Wall is going to smash Hillary. Blow her away. I can't wait.


Your red wall is a few bricks shy of a load.
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Old 06-19-2014, 06:36 PM
 
Location: NY
12,263 posts, read 9,045,904 times
Reputation: 8020
Quote:
Originally Posted by wehotex View Post
She's certainly not as exciting as Obama or her husband, but she will be our next President.
I met her twice, once with Bill, and you're right...I don't like him but there's no denying he's an astonishing force of nature and she pales next to him. I met her again at a small, private fundraiser when she was running for senator and she was very nice, and personable in a different way than her husband. She is not a natural politician and I've often suspected she finds the whole thing very hard. I do like her...but not her politics.
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