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Old 11-09-2012, 12:59 PM
 
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An overview of the victories for supporters of same-sex marriage in this election, and a glance at the future.

MAINE
In 2009, Maine voters opposed same-sex marriage at a 52.9% rate. Three years later, Maine voters endorsed same-sex marriage with 52.6% of the vote. In the span of those three years, support in Maine for same-sex marriage increased by 5.6%. Maine thus gives us a convenient snapshot of the
steadily shifting societal attitudes regarding same-sex marriage.

MARYLAND
In Maryland, same-sex marriage has passed with 51.9% of the vote.

WASHINGTON
The Washington vote is still being counted. Also, since Washington votes by mail and only requires that ballots be post-marked by election day, new ballot continue to arrive to be counted. Thus, valid ballots continue to arrive by mail. However, preliminary numbers combined with an assessment of the counties from which not all votes have been counted are sufficient that even opponents of same-sex marriage have conceded that the referendum has passed. Currently, the breakdown is 52.6% in favor, 47.4% opposed.

MINNESOTA
Minnesota voted on whether or not to amend the state constitution to prohibit same-sex marriage. However, since same-sex marriage is currently banned by statute in the state, the legal status of same-sex marriage would not change regardless of the vote. The vote to amend the constitution stands at 47.5%, with 51.2% opposed. Approximately 1.3% of voters left the question blank (in Minnesota, blank ballots count as 'no' votes on constitutional amendment referenda).

IOWA
Finally, in Iowa Republicans have long sought to amend the state constitution to ban same-sex marriage, which became law in 2009 when the Iowa Supreme Court ruled that the statutory ban on same-sex marriage is in violation of the state constitution. Amending the state constitution requires that each legislative house endorses a proposed constitutional amendment in each of two consecutive legislatures (ie, an election must intervene between the votes). Subsequently, proposed amendments are submitted to the electorate for ratification. The problem is that since 2009, the Iowa State Senate has been controlled by Democrats, and Majority Leader Michael Gronstal has steadfastly refused to bring the proposed constitutional amendment up for a floor vote.

On Tuesday, Gronstal was re-elected, and Democrats maintain a 26-23 hold on the Iowa State Senate. Iowa was the one state where same-sex marriage is legal that opponents have thought they had a chance at repealing the law, but at this point the soonest it could plausibly happen in Iowa is 2018.

TAKE-AWAYS
By the end of the year (at which point Maine, Maryland and Washington should all be issuing same-sex marriage licenses) over 49 million Americans will live in jurisdictions (nine states and the District of Columbia) where same-sex marriage will be legal. This number does not include California (see below).

THE FUTURE
Moving on, the next state looks to be California. The United States Supreme Court has on its conference schedule for November 20 of this month the Proposition 8 case. During this conference, the court will probably decide whether to hear the appeal or to deny cert. Most observors believe the latter is likely; if this occurs, same-sex marriage will once again become legal in California.

Beyond California, there are several states which look like they will be battlegrounds on this issue in the near to medium term:
Illinois
Rhode Island
Delaware
New Jersey
Hawai'i
Oregon
Ohio

And I wouldn't be surprised to see some action in states like Minnesota (where along with defeating the same-sex marriage ban, Democrats have retaken both houses of the legislature) and Colorado (where Democrats have held the state senate and taken the state house).
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Old 11-09-2012, 02:06 PM
 
Location: San Francisco
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Also New Mexico, which I believe is the only state that has yet to take any action on same-sex marriage either way (i.e. it hasn't banned it or legalized it).
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Old 11-11-2012, 05:30 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mictlantecuhtli View Post
IOWA
Finally, in Iowa Republicans have long sought to amend the state constitution to ban same-sex marriage, which became law in 2009 when the Iowa Supreme Court ruled that the statutory ban on same-sex marriage is in violation of the state constitution. Amending the state constitution requires that each legislative house endorses a proposed constitutional amendment in each of two consecutive legislatures (ie, an election must intervene between the votes). Subsequently, proposed amendments are submitted to the electorate for ratification. The problem is that since 2009, the Iowa State Senate has been controlled by Democrats, and Majority Leader Michael Gronstal has steadfastly refused to bring the proposed constitutional amendment up for a floor vote.
One follow-up to this election in Iowa, as it pertains to same-sex marriage.

As I noted above, Iowa legalized same-sex marriage in 2009 in a ruling by the Iowa Supreme Court striking down the state's ban on same-sex marriage. In 2010, three of the Iowa Supreme Court justices who were part of the opinion were voted out of office. In 2012, another justice who was a part of that decision, David Wiggins, was also up for a retention vote.

Justice Wiggins was retained with 54.6% of the vote.
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Old 11-11-2012, 07:31 PM
 
Location: New York City
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A lot of affluent, but very Republican, precincts west of Minneapolis voted against the amendment. That might have been what pushed it over the edge because some rural Democratic precincts supported it. It really shows how this particular issue breaks along class and educational lines, rather than straight party affiliation.
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Old 11-13-2012, 04:58 PM
 
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All three states that passed referendums legalizing same-sex marriage have now set dates for when they will begin issuing same-sex marriage licenses.

Maine and Washington will begin on December 6.

Maryland will begin on January 1.

Also, the United States Supreme Court has rescheduled consideration of whether to hear appeals in the Proposition 8 case and the various DOMA cases to their conference of November 30 (previously, they were scheduled for the November 20 conference).

The USSC is almost certain to hear a DOMA case in the spring. It is much less certain that they will even consider the Proposition 8 appeal.
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Old 11-14-2012, 12:08 PM
 
Location: California
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All of this is great for show but gay people will still be treated as second class citizens until
marriage equality is the law of the land. The federal government needs to pass laws making
same sex marriage legal in all of America.
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Old 11-14-2012, 01:17 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kerby W-R View Post
All of this is great for show but gay people will still be treated as second class citizens until marriage equality is the law of the land. The federal government needs to pass laws making same sex marriage legal in all of America.
The federal government -- that is, the executive branch -- has no power to do so.

The judicial branch can, and one day almost certainly will, void all laws prohibiting same-sex marriage (and effectively directing states to allow for it). But as for passing laws, the federal government simply lacks the power.
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Old 11-16-2012, 02:33 PM
 
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An interesting article on new pushes for same-sex marriage, in the wake of the successes of Election Day.

Quote:
PORTLAND, Me. — Elated by their first ballot victories, in four states, advocates of same-sex marriage rights plan to push legislatures in half a dozen more states toward legalization as they also press their cause in federal courts. They are also preparing for what they hope will be another milestone: the electoral reversal of a constitutional amendment defining marriage as solely between a man and a woman, in Oregon in 2014.

Nine states and Washington, D.C., have now legalized same-sex marriage. Though it remains unpopular in the South, rights campaigners see the potential for legislative gains in Delaware; Hawaii; Illinois; Rhode Island; Minnesota, where they beat back a restrictive amendment last Tuesday; and New Jersey, where Gov. Chris Christie vetoed a bill to legalize same-sex marriage in February.

A rapid shift in public opinion is bolstering their cause as more people grow used to the idea of same-sex marriage and become acquainted with openly gay people and couples. “The pace of the change in opinions has picked up over the last few years,” said Michael Dimock, associate research director of the Pew Research Center in Washington, “and as the younger generation becomes a larger share of the electorate, the writing is on the wall.”
[more at the link]

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/13/us/advocates-of-gay-marriage-extend-their-campaign.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0
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Old 11-16-2012, 05:48 PM
 
Location: On the "Left Coast", somewhere in "the Land of Fruits & Nuts"
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BTW, whatever happened to all that black support for Obama that was supposed to "evaporate" because he supported gay marriage, while so many black voters are traditionally against it?

Such as in places like Maryland, where about half of black voters opposed the state's same-sex marriage measure... and yet 9 out of 10 black voters still ended up picking Obama!
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Old 11-19-2012, 09:51 AM
 
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Gay marriage ballot measures 2012: Why did same-sex marriage opponents lose all four referenda? - Slate Magazine

Quote:
Opponents of same-sex marriage went 0-for-4 in the election. But they have lots of excuses.

Are they humbled? Shaken? Worried that the country might be turning against them? Not a bit. The leading conservative lobby on this issue, the National Organization for Marriage, has cooked up a handy set of post-election excuses. Here’s the list.
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