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Old 02-18-2013, 09:15 PM
 
Location: Caribbean
6,964 posts, read 2,054,982 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ovcatto View Post
Mia Love, great porn name.
It would have been nice if she used her birth name...Ludmya Bourdeau.
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Old 02-20-2013, 09:37 AM
 
910 posts, read 1,136,407 times
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If you can't win as a Republican in Utah you should probably rethink your career in politics.
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Old 02-21-2013, 08:42 AM
 
Location: Salt Lake City
21,294 posts, read 20,952,684 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by J. Pederman View Post
If you can't win as a Republican in Utah you should probably rethink your career in politics.
Uh... There has not been a Republican mayor of Salt Lake City since prior to 1976.
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Old 02-21-2013, 08:53 AM
 
910 posts, read 1,136,407 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Katzpur View Post
Uh... There has not been a Republican mayor of Salt Lake City since prior to 1976.
What's that have to do with Mia Love? She didn't run for mayor of SLC last year.
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Old 02-21-2013, 08:55 AM
 
77 posts, read 67,685 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Katzpur View Post
Uh... There has not been a Republican mayor of Salt Lake City since prior to 1976.
And the district in question, centered on Salt Lake City, has elected a Democrat (specifically, Jim Matheson) to Congress seven times in a row. So it's not like Love's loss stands out as unusual for the district.
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Old 02-21-2013, 09:00 AM
 
77 posts, read 67,685 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by J. Pederman View Post
What's that have to do with Mia Love? She didn't run for mayor of SLC last year.
Because Salt Lake City comprises over 25% of the Congressional District, and when it's electing a Democratic mayor with 75% of the vote (as in 2011), it's a pretty strong sign that the district itself is going to have a tendency to elect Democrats.
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Old 02-21-2013, 09:11 AM
 
910 posts, read 1,136,407 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jestak View Post
Because Salt Lake City comprises over 25% of the Congressional District, and when it's electing a Democratic mayor with 75% of the vote (as in 2011), it's a pretty strong sign that the district itself is going to have a tendency to elect Democrats.
That district has a Cook PVI rating of +14R. Matheson, who won by 3/10 of a percent, could've easily lost if Vein hadn't run as well. It can easily be flipped. Also that district didn't exist prior to this year.

It would've been a better move to run Love in a gimme district like the 2nd and let a veteran take on Matheson last year.
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Old 02-21-2013, 09:17 AM
 
77 posts, read 67,685 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by J. Pederman View Post
That district has a Cook PVI rating of +14R. Matheson, who won by 3/10 of a percent, could've easily lost if Vein hadn't run as well. It can easily be flipped.
I didn't say it couldn't.

Cook PVI ratings are calcuated using the two-party votes for President. There are many examples around the country of places where the majority Presidential vote goes one way and the majority/plurality votes for lessers offices go the other way.

The fact remains that Matheson has won seven straight elections, against six different Republican candidates, in a Congressional District (with three different sets of boundaries) centered on Salt Lake City. That means Love's loss in that district was hardly an anomaly.
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Old 02-21-2013, 09:32 AM
 
910 posts, read 1,136,407 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jestak View Post
Cook PVI ratings are calcuated using the two-party votes for President. There are many examples around the country of places where the majority Presidential vote goes one way and the majority/plurality votes for lessers offices go the other way.
But nowhere near that extreme. The next largest discrepancy between PVI and the representative is Mike McIntyre in NC-7, which has a PVI rating of +11R, and that one went down a recount with the final margin under 700 votes. At any rate, my point was it's impossible to claim UT-4 has a tendency to elect either party since it was just created. The PVI estimate being the closest measure indicates it's reliably Republican.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Jestak View Post
The fact remains that Matheson has won seven straight elections, against six different Republican candidates, in a Congressional District (with three different sets of boundaries) centered on Salt Lake City. That means Love's loss in that district was hardly an anomaly.
Except she almost nearly won, and likely would've if not for the libertarian candidate siphoning away votes. Matheson's somewhat incumbency advantage plus name recognition helped him, as likely did Love's ideological issues and probably her race to a minor extent. In a contest that close it's impossible to rule out just about any factor. I'm willing to bet against a better candidate and a little more resources Matheson won't get re-elected.
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Old 02-21-2013, 10:36 AM
 
77 posts, read 67,685 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by J. Pederman View Post
But nowhere near that extreme. The next largest discrepancy between PVI and the representative is Mike McIntyre in NC-7, which has a PVI rating of +11R, and that one went down a recount with the final margin under 700 votes. At any rate, my point was it's impossible to claim UT-4 has a tendency to elect either party since it was just created. The PVI estimate being the closest measure indicates it's reliably Republican.
The current boundaries were realigned, and it was given a new name (the district centered on Salt Lake City was previously called UT-2, but that's just a number issue, and irrelevant). But it is still based on Salt Lake City, and the PVI, of which you put so much importance, is little changed (the old UT-2 actually had a pre-2010 Cook PVI of R+15).

As for the disparity between the PVI and the final vote, sure. But it is less extreme than it was in 2010, when the PVI was R+15 and Matheson won by +2, which comes to a 17-point discrepancy. This year it was a 14-point discrepancy. In other words, not unusual and consistent with past performances.

Again, whatever district is anchored by a city that gave the last Democratic mayoral candidate 75% of the vote is not going to be a district where anyone should be mystified that the Democrat won.

Quote:
Except she almost nearly won, and likely would've if not for the libertarian candidate siphoning away votes. Matheson's somewhat incumbency advantage plus name recognition helped him, as likely did Love's ideological issues and probably her race to a minor extent. In a contest that close it's impossible to rule out just about any factor. I'm willing to bet against a better candidate and a little more resources Matheson won't get re-elected.
All of which is completely irrelevant to your claim that a Republican who can't win in Utah should leave politics. Republicans don't fare well in the district which includes Salt Lake City. And they haven't for a long time. Love's loss (of which I am glad, by the way) has nothing to do with her being a Republican who allegedly can't win in Utah, but in running in a district which has traditionally elected Democrats because the city in that district which is by far the largest is heaily Democratic.

Which.
Is.
Why.
It.
Keeps.
Electing.
A.
Democrat.
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