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Old 11-14-2012, 11:59 AM
 
Location: Portland, Oregon
5,076 posts, read 7,040,008 times
Reputation: 3382

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Not just technology, but social science clinched the victory for Obama. Although it was not well known, the Obama campaign had a panel of unpaid academic advisers. The group — which calls itself the “consortium of behavioral scientists,” or COBS — provided ideas on how to counter false rumors, like one that President Obama is a Muslim. It suggested how to characterize the Republican opponent, Mitt Romney, in advertisements. It also delivered research-based advice on how to mobilize voters. The team proposed little things that could make a difference. For example, the team affirmed in the public's eye that Obama was a Christian, not a Muslim.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/13/he...gewanted=print
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Old 11-14-2012, 12:20 PM
 
Location: Hinckley Ohio
6,722 posts, read 4,262,644 times
Reputation: 1376
Quote:
Originally Posted by tigerlily View Post
Not just technology, but social science clinched the victory for Obama. Although it was not well known, the Obama campaign had a panel of unpaid academic advisers. The group — which calls itself the “consortium of behavioral scientists,” or COBS — provided ideas on how to counter false rumors, like one that President Obama is a Muslim. It suggested how to characterize the Republican opponent, Mitt Romney, in advertisements. It also delivered research-based advice on how to mobilize voters. The team proposed little things that could make a difference. For example, the team affirmed in the public's eye that Obama was a Christian, not a Muslim.

?Dream Team? of Behavioral Scientists Advised Obama Campaign - NYTimes.com
Yep, for much of the campaign canvassers were working with a data mining script, but in the last two weeks the script changed often. In the end they used "tools" I never saw before. I think they took huge steps in materials, messaging, and marginal voter motivation. The window clings and precinct specific door hangers were innovative, at least to me.

Pressing our strong supporters to early vote so that on election day we were only targeting strong supporters that hadn't voted early was genius. We had several teams make 100% contacts on election day, and they were able to reinforce bigger turf.
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Old 11-14-2012, 12:35 PM
 
Location: Old Bellevue, WA
18,794 posts, read 13,589,390 times
Reputation: 7921
Interesting article. A little brave-new-worldish.

Remember the story about the Target marketing computers? Target's computers figured out that a certain teenage girl was pregnant before her own father did.
How Target Figured Out A Teen Girl Was Pregnant Before Her Father Did - Forbes
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Old 11-14-2012, 12:48 PM
 
2,633 posts, read 2,964,024 times
Reputation: 1669
Quote:
Originally Posted by buzzards27 View Post
Yep, for much of the campaign canvassers were working with a data mining script, but in the last two weeks the script changed often. In the end they used "tools" I never saw before. I think they took huge steps in materials, messaging, and marginal voter motivation. The window clings and precinct specific door hangers were innovative, at least to me.

Pressing our strong supporters to early vote so that on election day we were only targeting strong supporters that hadn't voted early was genius. We had several teams make 100% contacts on election day, and they were able to reinforce bigger turf.
Being on the receiving end, I think there is still some work to do. My wife is a registered Democrat in VA. By the end of October, she was already overwhelmed by the amount of contact she had received from the campaign. The daily deluge of mailers and stickers, the knocks on doors, the phone calls. Every time she'd politely tell the canvasser or caller that yes, she's voting for Obama. No heed, it kept coming.

What was interesting was for all the attention focused on her, they showed very little interest in talking to me. Registered independent, upper-middle class white male. It's as if their algorithm had written me off as a Romney supporter. How many potential voters did Team Obama leave on the table? While he won the Presidential election, down-ticket races could have benefited from his support. You'll note that more people voted for Democrats than Republicans in House races, yet the Republicans still control it. A better tuned ground campaign should address this issue.

So three things to work on are:
1. Finding the limit where you overwhelm voters
2. Reach out to independents, moderates, and undecided voters
3. Better integration with state/local races and decisions.
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Old 11-14-2012, 01:17 PM
 
Location: Hinckley Ohio
6,722 posts, read 4,262,644 times
Reputation: 1376
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smoke_Jaguar4 View Post
Being on the receiving end, I think there is still some work to do. My wife is a registered Democrat in VA. By the end of October, she was already overwhelmed by the amount of contact she had received from the campaign. The daily deluge of mailers and stickers, the knocks on doors, the phone calls. Every time she'd politely tell the canvasser or caller that yes, she's voting for Obama. No heed, it kept coming.

What was interesting was for all the attention focused on her, they showed very little interest in talking to me. Registered independent, upper-middle class white male. It's as if their algorithm had written me off as a Romney supporter. How many potential voters did Team Obama leave on the table? While he won the Presidential election, down-ticket races could have benefited from his support. You'll note that more people voted for Democrats than Republicans in House races, yet the Republicans still control it. A better tuned ground campaign should address this issue.

So three things to work on are:
1. Finding the limit where you overwhelm voters
2. Reach out to independents, moderates, and undecided voters
3. Better integration with state/local races and decisions.
By the end of October OFA was in full turnout mode. They had already identified their targets and were asking them to early vote. Saying you were a one (strong Obama) wasn't good enuf, you needed to get out to vote.

You??? They might have had something in your Votebuilder profile that told them you were a three, four or five. They were not calling those late in the game, converting or persuasion away from mittens was never a big part of blue team canvassing.

One think I noticed in the last two weeks, they were targeting females three to one in many cases.

I would tell ppl that if they wanted the calls and visits to stop they needed to vote. They came off our turf lists as soon as they did.
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Old 11-14-2012, 04:41 PM
 
Location: Portland, Oregon
5,076 posts, read 7,040,008 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Smoke_Jaguar4 View Post
You'll note that more people voted for Democrats than Republicans in House races, yet the Republicans still control it. A better tuned ground campaign should address this issue.
Credit republican gerrymandering for the lopsided number. Pennsylvania is an example. Republican-controlled redistricting after the 2010 Census packed Democratic voters into a handful of imaginatively shaped districts around Pennsylvania's urban centers and created a slew of GOP districts in the rest of the state. The overwhelming Democratic margins in the two heavily African-American Philadelphia districts didn't require constructing oddly shaped districts, but carving up the rest of the state to minimize districts that Democrats might win required politically driven line-drawing of the highest order.


Credit gerrymandering for GOP House control - Tampa Bay Times
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Old 11-14-2012, 05:26 PM
 
Location: The Lone Star State
8,031 posts, read 7,357,311 times
Reputation: 5040
I'm surprised this hasn't been done sooner.
The new norm?

Quote:
Originally Posted by tigerlily View Post
Not just technology, but social science clinched the victory for Obama. Although it was not well known, the Obama campaign had a panel of unpaid academic advisers. The group — which calls itself the “consortium of behavioral scientists,” or COBS — provided ideas on how to counter false rumors, like one that President Obama is a Muslim. It suggested how to characterize the Republican opponent, Mitt Romney, in advertisements. It also delivered research-based advice on how to mobilize voters. The team proposed little things that could make a difference. For example, the team affirmed in the public's eye that Obama was a Christian, not a Muslim.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/13/he...gewanted=print
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Old 11-14-2012, 05:50 PM
 
2,633 posts, read 2,964,024 times
Reputation: 1669
Quote:
Originally Posted by buzzards27 View Post
By the end of October OFA was in full turnout mode. They had already identified their targets and were asking them to early vote. Saying you were a one (strong Obama) wasn't good enuf, you needed to get out to vote.

You??? They might have had something in your Votebuilder profile that told them you were a three, four or five. They were not calling those late in the game, converting or persuasion away from mittens was never a big part of blue team canvassing.

One think I noticed in the last two weeks, they were targeting females three to one in many cases.

I would tell ppl that if they wanted the calls and visits to stop they needed to vote. They came off our turf lists as soon as they did.
The danger in this is you may pee' off people to the point that they will vote, but for the other guy in spite. There is a fine line between GOTV and harassment, and this year you came too close. There needs to be a way to let people opt out of being on the turf list, especially if you honestly believe in a right to privacy.
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Old 11-14-2012, 06:09 PM
 
Location: Hinckley Ohio
6,722 posts, read 4,262,644 times
Reputation: 1376
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smoke_Jaguar4 View Post
The danger in this is you may pee' off people to the point that they will vote, but for the other guy in spite. There is a fine line between GOTV and harassment, and this year you came too close. There needs to be a way to let people opt out of being on the turf list, especially if you honestly believe in a right to privacy.
What I said, "GO VOTE" Once someone voted they were off our list, no longer in our universe.

OFA wasn't the only out there, national, state and local candidates from both sides were active. A few dem candidates bought into OFA canvassing scripts but most ran their own, some of those worked the top of the ticket. Sometimes a down ticket pitch will end up sounding like an Obama pitch.

The only stickers (actually window clings) I know of were used election day.

Some ppl that don't answer their phone were never reached but someone that readily answers their phone might get a few OFA calls a week at the end.

I'm guessing if you're calling a strong supporter they aren't going to switch candidates out of spite.

I understand the frustration, I live in Ohio and gave up watching tv and listening to mainstream radio, the ads never stopped. I didn't canvass too much but I did run across one guy that yelled a lot about the calls, the ads, the non stop campaign nonsense. After he vented for I few minutes we take about citizens united and the unchecked money... I suggested he vote early to stop the calls. It works.
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Old 11-14-2012, 07:57 PM
 
Location: west mich
5,740 posts, read 5,658,644 times
Reputation: 2108
Quote:
Originally Posted by tigerlily View Post
Credit republican gerrymandering for the lopsided number. Pennsylvania is an example. Republican-controlled redistricting after the 2010 Census packed Democratic voters into a handful of imaginatively shaped districts around Pennsylvania's urban centers and created a slew of GOP districts in the rest of the state. The overwhelming Democratic margins in the two heavily African-American Philadelphia districts didn't require constructing oddly shaped districts, but carving up the rest of the state to minimize districts that Democrats might win required politically driven line-drawing of the highest order.
Credit gerrymandering for GOP House control - Tampa Bay Times
This stuff goes on inside states so nationally people don't keep up on it - yet it affects our national elections. Some people are rethinking this out-of-control nonsense. Things like limiting the number of sides a district can have, or whatever - there's more to it.
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