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Old 11-08-2012, 01:41 PM
 
Location: "Daytonnati"
4,241 posts, read 7,174,492 times
Reputation: 3014

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Though there's a lot of speculation...already...about 2016, the next election to watch will be the Midterms.

The GOP will be coming into these with a built-in advantage since, historically, the party that doesnt hold the Presidency picks up seats.

So how to maximize this advantage?

Id say "increase the House majority", but really, the push should be on taking the Senate.

The GOP needs to target some vulnerable Dem senate seats and open seats and put their effort there. This would be a good use of that super-PAC money.

Even if the GOP doesnt capture the Senate by putting political pressure on vulnerable Dems will further their policy goals by pulling the incumbents in a more conservative direction. This could also put the kabosh on an legislative intiative Obama might have.

One of the lessons of the Obamacare fight is that, even with a Dem house and senate majority, it almost didnt happen, which signals Obama is actually somewhat of a weak president, and that the Dems are vulnerable when they support his agenda or a general "progressive" agenda.

Another angle is for the GOP to focus on judicial appointments and confirmations, perhaps handing Obama some defeats there, if there are any high-profile confirmations. The Dems dont hold a supermajority, so the GOP has some clout aready.

The entire strategy is to take out Dems, control the Senate (or push the agenda to the right), and then make Obama a very lame duck in the remaining two years of his term.
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Old 11-08-2012, 02:49 PM
 
Location: San Francisco
8,982 posts, read 10,460,012 times
Reputation: 5752
Did the 2012 election results somehow give you the impression that America wants to move further to the right?
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Old 11-08-2012, 02:51 PM
 
7,132 posts, read 9,133,368 times
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You are living in a dream LOL. It's funny how you republicans will do anything to make Obama look like the worst president ever for the sake of your pride, not for the good and welfare of the country....very selfish people.
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Old 11-08-2012, 02:52 PM
 
1,211 posts, read 1,533,960 times
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You will lose your majority in 2014.
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Old 11-08-2012, 02:52 PM
 
14,020 posts, read 15,011,523 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pch1013 View Post
Did the 2012 election results somehow give you the impression that America wants to move further to the right?
Remember 2008? the media was trumpeting the end of the Republican Party then 2010 came along, and the fall of the Democratic party was debated.
2012 will likely have little bearing on what happens in 2014, not to mention 2012 led to little shift at all.
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Old 11-08-2012, 02:54 PM
 
Location: San Francisco
8,982 posts, read 10,460,012 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by btownboss4 View Post
Remember 2008? the media was trumpeting the end of the Republican Party then 2010 came along, and the fall of the Democratic party was debated.
2012 will likely have little bearing on what happens in 2014, not to mention 2012 led to little shift at all.
It was a significant shift compared to 2010, when the House underwent a large swing. This time the House barely budged and the Ds picked up a couple of seats in the Senate.
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Old 11-08-2012, 02:55 PM
 
8,628 posts, read 9,134,034 times
Reputation: 5978
A good start would be for the Republican party to reinvent itself. If it doesn't, it'll be tossed on the frigging scrap heap like was done after the great depression.
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Old 11-08-2012, 02:56 PM
 
Location: Cali
3,955 posts, read 7,197,803 times
Reputation: 2308
Quote:
Originally Posted by btownboss4 View Post
Remember 2008? the media was trumpeting the end of the Republican Party then 2010 came along, and the fall of the Democratic party was debated.
2012 will likely have little bearing on what happens in 2014, not to mention 2012 led to little shift at all.
Quite true. Plus Obama is not going to be on the ballot in 2014.
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Old 11-08-2012, 03:00 PM
 
753 posts, read 727,841 times
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On one hand, it is true that during mid-terms -- especially the second mid-terms of a two-term President -- the President's party gets beaten pretty badly. In fact, in three of the last four mid-terms of a two-term Presidency (2006, 1986, 1974-the second midterm of the Nixon/Ford Presidency) the President's party got hammered. On the other hand, the one recent time it didn't happen was also the one recent time the Democrats were the party controlling the President; in 1998, the Senate balance didn't change at all.

That said, the line-up in 2014 looks absolutely brutal for the Democrats. They have to defend 20 seats, the GOP only 13. And 12 of those 13 GOP states are red states that Romney carried (Susan Collins in Maine being the only exception). And some of the seats the Democrats will be defending look like they'll be challenging to hold -- for example: Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Montana, North Carolina, South Dakota. But then, the GOP just gave us an abject lesson in how they can completely screw up a Senate election cycle. Still, I'd say that after 2014 it is almost a given that the Democrats will have fewer Senate seats than they do now.

One silver lining is that the 2016 Senate elections look very favorable to Democrats (which often happens six years after the other party has a wave election, as happened with the GOP in 2010).
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Old 11-08-2012, 03:01 PM
 
Location: Tampa Florida
22,229 posts, read 17,851,724 times
Reputation: 4585
Now that it's over in Fla finally, 332 to 206... Time to work on regaining the House in 2014...
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