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Old 11-18-2012, 03:38 AM
 
33,198 posts, read 39,260,099 times
Reputation: 28543

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mictlantecuhtli View Post
Demographics

First, a look at the breakdown of the electorates from 1992 thru 2012:

White
1992 - 87%
1996 - 83%
2000 - 81%
2004 - 77%
2008 - 74%
2012 - 72%

African-American:
1992 - 8%
1996 - 10%
2000 - 10%
2004 - 11%
2008 - 13%
2012 - 13%

Hispanic:
1992 - 2%
1996 - 5%
2000 - 7%
2004 - 8%
2008 - 9%
2012 - 11%

Asian:
1992 - 1%
1996 - 1%
2000 - 2%
2004 - 2%
2008 - 2%
2012 - 3%

Demographics of How Groups Voted in the 1992 Presidential Election [1992 thru 2008 data]
Presidential Race - 2012 Election Center - Elections & Politics from CNN.com [2012 data]

Now let's analyze the twenty-year trend to project the 2016 electorate.

2016 projection:
White: 70%
African-American: 13%
Hispanic: 13%
Asian: 3%
Other: 1%

Estiamted 2016 turnout: 55.0%
[Turnout projection based on approximate average of 1992-2008 turnout and preliminary 2012 turnout estimates]
United States population in 2016: ~323,000,000
Approximately 74.3% of the United States populace is eligible to vote
Eligible electorate in 2016 will be approximately 240,000,000
55% turnout assumes 132,000,000 voters

2012 votes by race:
White: Romney 59%, Obama 39%
African-American: Obama 93%, Romney 6%
Hispanic: Obama 71%, Romney 27%
Asian: Obama 73%, Romney 26%
Other: Obama 58%, Romney 38%
Presidential Race - 2012 Election Center - Elections & Politics from CNN.com

Now, let's use the trending electoral breakdown to consider some 2016 outcomes.

Scenario #1 -- Demographic Repeat of 2012
White: R 59%, D 39% (R 54.5m, D 36.0m)
African-American: D 93%, R 6% (D 16.0m, R 1.0m)
Hispanic: D 71%, R 27% (12.2m, R 4.6m)
Asian: D 73%, R 26% (D 2.9m, R 1.0m)
Other: D 58%, R 38% (D 0.8m, R 0.5m)
TOTAL: Democratic nominee 67.9 million, Republican nominee 61.6 million

If the various demographic groups vote the same way, the Democratic candidate's margin will increase from President Obama's current 3.7 million vote lead to 6.3 million votes. That is simply if nothing else changes.

But will we likely get such a repeat? No. So let's look at some other possibilities.

Scenario #2 -- All Numbers Strong for the GOP
White: R 60%, D 38% (R 55.4m, D 35.1m)
African-American: D 88%, R 11% (D 15.1m, R 1.9m)
Hispanic: D 62%, R 35% (D 10.6m, R 6.0m)
Asian: D 63%, R 36% (D 2.5m, R 1.4m)
Other: D 55%, R 41% (D 0.7m, R 0.5m)
TOTAL: Republican nominee 65.2 million, Democratic nominee 64.0 million

In this case, I've assumed that everything will go well for Republicans. I've given them yet another point of the White vote, I've reverted the African-American vote to the Bush/Kerry numbers, I've reverted the Hispanic vote to the Bush/Gore numbers, I've clipped 10% off the Asian numbers and shifted them to the Republicans, and I've even given 3% of the 'Other" category to the GOP (this is a catch-all group that is probably fairly resistant to short-term movement).

This gets the GOP a narrow 1.2 million vote margin, that would have over an 80% change of translating into an Electoral College victory. But in order to get this narrow GOP victory, you have to assume pretty much every demographic trend goes the Republcans' way.

Scenario #3 -- Same as Scenario #2, but 2012 numbers for Whites
White: R 59%, D 39% (R 54.5m, D 36.0m)
African-American: D 88%, R 11% (D 15.1m, R 1.9m)
Hispanic: D 62%, R 35% (D 10.6m, R 6.0m)
Asian: D 63%, R 36% (D 2.5m, R 1.4m)
Other: D 55%, R 41% (D 0.7m, R 0.5m)
TOTAL: Democratic nominee 64.9 million , Republican nominee 64.3 million

This scenario assumes that the GOP has maxed out its share of the White vote. Not a bad assumption; it's hard to see Clinton or Cuomo or O'Malley, or whoever wins the 2016 Democratic nomination, doing any worse among Whites. The rest of the numbers are still very favorable to the GOP.

Still, the GOP loses the popular vote, with probably a 2/3rds chance of also losing the Electoral College.

Scenario #4 -- Same as #2 & #3, but 1% improvement on 2012 for Whites
White: R 58%, D 40% (R 53.6m, D 37.0m)
African-American: D% 88, R 11% (D 15.1m, R 1.9m)
Hispanic: D 62%, R 35% (D 10.6m, R 6.0m)
Asian: D 63%, R 36% (D 2.5m, R 1.4m)
Other: D 55%, R 41% (D 0.7m, R 0.5m)
TOTAL: Democratic nominee 65.9 million, Republican nominee 63.4 million.

These demographic numbers are still pretty good overall for the GOP. It would not be at all surprising to see someone like Clinton improve one percentage point for Democrats among Whites. And if that happens? It's all over, even assuming the GOP still manages to do considerably better with all other demographics. This is what is so important -- even demographic trends that are reasonably GOP-biased translate to a loss in 2016.

Scenario #5 -- Modest GOP gains on minority voting, Bush/Kerry numbers for Whites
White: R 58%, D 41% (R 53.6m, D 37.9m)
Black: D 90%, R 8% (D 15.4m, R 1.4m)
Hispanic: D 66%, R 32% (D 11.3m, R 5.5m)
Asian: D 68%, R 31% (D 2.7m, R 1.2m)
Other: D 55%, R 41% (D 0.7m, R 0.5m)
TOTAL: Democratic nominee 68.0 million, Republican nominee 62.2 million

This final number is what I consider more realistic. For all demographics, I've assumed a reasonable and modest rebound towards 50%. I've given the Bush/Kerry numbers to Whites, and assumed the GOP will peel a few percentages off the other groups. The result? A big Democratic victory.

And if the Democrats can manage to flip more than 1.5% of the White vote, it really becomes apocalyptic for the GOP.

Note that these projections are only for 2016. In 2020, it continues to get progressively worse for Republicans. By then, when the White vote is down to 67% or 68%, with Hispanics up to perhaps 15% and maybe Asians gaining 1%, even the rosiest scenario above for the GOP will result in a clear loss.

This is just some food for thought. I advocate nothing. I am just showing why the Republican Party, in order to win Presidential elections in the future, absolutely must find a way to get non-whites to vote for them in greater numbers. Much greater numbers.
Let me condense that for you Mictlantecuhtli

Obama and the Democrats won making them winners.
Romney and the righties lost making them losers.
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Old 11-18-2012, 05:58 AM
 
Location: Maryland
18,563 posts, read 15,816,256 times
Reputation: 6259
The GOP definitely has an uphill battle but if economic collapse happens all bets are off.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mictlantecuhtli View Post
Demographics

First, a look at the breakdown of the electorates from 1992 thru 2012:

White
1992 - 87%
1996 - 83%
2000 - 81%
2004 - 77%
2008 - 74%
2012 - 72%

African-American:
1992 - 8%
1996 - 10%
2000 - 10%
2004 - 11%
2008 - 13%
2012 - 13%

Hispanic:
1992 - 2%
1996 - 5%
2000 - 7%
2004 - 8%
2008 - 9%
2012 - 11%

Asian:
1992 - 1%
1996 - 1%
2000 - 2%
2004 - 2%
2008 - 2%
2012 - 3%

Demographics of How Groups Voted in the 1992 Presidential Election [1992 thru 2008 data]
Presidential Race - 2012 Election Center - Elections & Politics from CNN.com [2012 data]

Now let's analyze the twenty-year trend to project the 2016 electorate.

2016 projection:
White: 70%
African-American: 13%
Hispanic: 13%
Asian: 3%
Other: 1%

Estiamted 2016 turnout: 55.0%
[Turnout projection based on approximate average of 1992-2008 turnout and preliminary 2012 turnout estimates]
United States population in 2016: ~323,000,000
Approximately 74.3% of the United States populace is eligible to vote
Eligible electorate in 2016 will be approximately 240,000,000
55% turnout assumes 132,000,000 voters

2012 votes by race:
White: Romney 59%, Obama 39%
African-American: Obama 93%, Romney 6%
Hispanic: Obama 71%, Romney 27%
Asian: Obama 73%, Romney 26%
Other: Obama 58%, Romney 38%
Presidential Race - 2012 Election Center - Elections & Politics from CNN.com

Now, let's use the trending electoral breakdown to consider some 2016 outcomes.

Scenario #1 -- Demographic Repeat of 2012
White: R 59%, D 39% (R 54.5m, D 36.0m)
African-American: D 93%, R 6% (D 16.0m, R 1.0m)
Hispanic: D 71%, R 27% (12.2m, R 4.6m)
Asian: D 73%, R 26% (D 2.9m, R 1.0m)
Other: D 58%, R 38% (D 0.8m, R 0.5m)
TOTAL: Democratic nominee 67.9 million, Republican nominee 61.6 million

If the various demographic groups vote the same way, the Democratic candidate's margin will increase from President Obama's current 3.7 million vote lead to 6.3 million votes. That is simply if nothing else changes.

But will we likely get such a repeat? No. So let's look at some other possibilities.

Scenario #2 -- All Numbers Strong for the GOP
White: R 60%, D 38% (R 55.4m, D 35.1m)
African-American: D 88%, R 11% (D 15.1m, R 1.9m)
Hispanic: D 62%, R 35% (D 10.6m, R 6.0m)
Asian: D 63%, R 36% (D 2.5m, R 1.4m)
Other: D 55%, R 41% (D 0.7m, R 0.5m)
TOTAL: Republican nominee 65.2 million, Democratic nominee 64.0 million

In this case, I've assumed that everything will go well for Republicans. I've given them yet another point of the White vote, I've reverted the African-American vote to the Bush/Kerry numbers, I've reverted the Hispanic vote to the Bush/Gore numbers, I've clipped 10% off the Asian numbers and shifted them to the Republicans, and I've even given 3% of the 'Other" category to the GOP (this is a catch-all group that is probably fairly resistant to short-term movement).

This gets the GOP a narrow 1.2 million vote margin, that would have over an 80% change of translating into an Electoral College victory. But in order to get this narrow GOP victory, you have to assume pretty much every demographic trend goes the Republcans' way.

Scenario #3 -- Same as Scenario #2, but 2012 numbers for Whites
White: R 59%, D 39% (R 54.5m, D 36.0m)
African-American: D 88%, R 11% (D 15.1m, R 1.9m)
Hispanic: D 62%, R 35% (D 10.6m, R 6.0m)
Asian: D 63%, R 36% (D 2.5m, R 1.4m)
Other: D 55%, R 41% (D 0.7m, R 0.5m)
TOTAL: Democratic nominee 64.9 million , Republican nominee 64.3 million

This scenario assumes that the GOP has maxed out its share of the White vote. Not a bad assumption; it's hard to see Clinton or Cuomo or O'Malley, or whoever wins the 2016 Democratic nomination, doing any worse among Whites. The rest of the numbers are still very favorable to the GOP.

Still, the GOP loses the popular vote, with probably a 2/3rds chance of also losing the Electoral College.

Scenario #4 -- Same as #2 & #3, but 1% improvement on 2012 for Whites
White: R 58%, D 40% (R 53.6m, D 37.0m)
African-American: D% 88, R 11% (D 15.1m, R 1.9m)
Hispanic: D 62%, R 35% (D 10.6m, R 6.0m)
Asian: D 63%, R 36% (D 2.5m, R 1.4m)
Other: D 55%, R 41% (D 0.7m, R 0.5m)
TOTAL: Democratic nominee 65.9 million, Republican nominee 63.4 million.

These demographic numbers are still pretty good overall for the GOP. It would not be at all surprising to see someone like Clinton improve one percentage point for Democrats among Whites. And if that happens? It's all over, even assuming the GOP still manages to do considerably better with all other demographics. This is what is so important -- even demographic trends that are reasonably GOP-biased translate to a loss in 2016.

Scenario #5 -- Modest GOP gains on minority voting, Bush/Kerry numbers for Whites
White: R 58%, D 41% (R 53.6m, D 37.9m)
Black: D 90%, R 8% (D 15.4m, R 1.4m)
Hispanic: D 66%, R 32% (D 11.3m, R 5.5m)
Asian: D 68%, R 31% (D 2.7m, R 1.2m)
Other: D 55%, R 41% (D 0.7m, R 0.5m)
TOTAL: Democratic nominee 68.0 million, Republican nominee 62.2 million

This final number is what I consider more realistic. For all demographics, I've assumed a reasonable and modest rebound towards 50%. I've given the Bush/Kerry numbers to Whites, and assumed the GOP will peel a few percentages off the other groups. The result? A big Democratic victory.

And if the Democrats can manage to flip more than 1.5% of the White vote, it really becomes apocalyptic for the GOP.

Note that these projections are only for 2016. In 2020, it continues to get progressively worse for Republicans. By then, when the White vote is down to 67% or 68%, with Hispanics up to perhaps 15% and maybe Asians gaining 1%, even the rosiest scenario above for the GOP will result in a clear loss.

This is just some food for thought. I advocate nothing. I am just showing why the Republican Party, in order to win Presidential elections in the future, absolutely must find a way to get non-whites to vote for them in greater numbers. Much greater numbers.
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Old 11-18-2012, 02:59 PM
 
Location: Portland, Oregon
46,054 posts, read 28,348,420 times
Reputation: 7824
Quote:
Originally Posted by EdwardA View Post
The GOP definitely has an uphill battle but if economic collapse happens all bets are off.
And if it doesn't and the economy improves, the GOP is screwed.....I wonder what the GOP will try to do to the economy over the next four years....I am betting they don't want to see it get better and will do anything in their power to prevent that from happening.
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Old 11-18-2012, 04:33 PM
 
Location: San Antonio Texas
11,435 posts, read 15,984,530 times
Reputation: 5224
Quote:
Originally Posted by urbanlife78 View Post
You are right, I want to see Julian Castro go on to be a Governor or a Senator before trying for VP or President in the future, but he is still young with a lot of possibilities ahead of him.
That will be nearly impossible here in Texas. Julian Castro is a tax-loving robin hood socialist and would be easily labeled as such. He just spearheaded a 1/8 cent sales tax to provide pre-k day care for poor people in SA. I like his progressivism on other things, but scorn any attempt to raise taxes, even sales taxes which disprortionately affect the poor.
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Old 11-18-2012, 04:45 PM
 
982 posts, read 2,150,193 times
Reputation: 770
Don't kid yourselves about the dems becoming the party that rules all. Hispanics are people who share conservative values. Once they're legal, there will likely be a sea change. They are religious, mostly Catholic, and believe in the strong bond of the family unit.

The younger hispanics take care of and respect their older relatives, and often multi-generations live in the same household so that older individuals aren't left to struggle. They value the opinions of their older family members, and respect them greatly. Most of them would never be able to get away with the way younger US kids treat their own parents these days.

In the USA right now, most younger people have become literally brainwashed, and no longer respect the wisdom and intelligence of their elder relatives.

It's pathetic how lots of liberals, including our president, have encouraged the younger generation to believe they're smarter, better in all ways, and wiser than their parents and grandparents.

Younger people in this country have been indoctrinated to believe they're superior. Sad, sad situation. Eventually it will help lead to the demise of this country if it doesn't stop.

best,
toodie
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Old 11-18-2012, 05:01 PM
 
Location: Portland, Oregon
46,054 posts, read 28,348,420 times
Reputation: 7824
Quote:
Originally Posted by wehotex View Post
That will be nearly impossible here in Texas. Julian Castro is a tax-loving robin hood socialist and would be easily labeled as such. He just spearheaded a 1/8 cent sales tax to provide pre-k day care for poor people in SA. I like his progressivism on other things, but scorn any attempt to raise taxes, even sales taxes which disprortionately affect the poor.
Actually I support that kind of a tax because it makes it easier for those who are poor to put their kids in pre-K while trying to bring home enough money to survive and possibly get ahead of their situation.

But you are right, he probably wouldn't be governor in Texas unless there is a massive shift of Latinos in the state, but he could be a Senator or Representative.....though he could also like being a mayor of a big city and have no plans on ever going for president.
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Old 11-18-2012, 05:03 PM
 
Location: Portland, Oregon
46,054 posts, read 28,348,420 times
Reputation: 7824
Quote:
Originally Posted by toodie View Post
Don't kid yourselves about the dems becoming the party that rules all. Hispanics are people who share conservative values. Once they're legal, there will likely be a sea change. They are religious, mostly Catholic, and believe in the strong bond of the family unit.

The younger hispanics take care of and respect their older relatives, and often multi-generations live in the same household so that older individuals aren't left to struggle. They value the opinions of their older family members, and respect them greatly. Most of them would never be able to get away with the way younger US kids treat their own parents these days.

In the USA right now, most younger people have become literally brainwashed, and no longer respect the wisdom and intelligence of their elder relatives.

It's pathetic how lots of liberals, including our president, have encouraged the younger generation to believe they're smarter, better in all ways, and wiser than their parents and grandparents.

Younger people in this country have been indoctrinated to believe they're superior. Sad, sad situation. Eventually it will help lead to the demise of this country if it doesn't stop.

best,
toodie
If that were true, then the Latinos that are legal in this country would be voting overwhelmingly for the GOP.....though instead they showed up to vote for the Democrats....so I don't think this train of thought is going to accomplish anything if the GOP doesn't change their point of view on Latinos and how they treat them.
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Old 11-18-2012, 05:43 PM
 
Location: Old Bellevue, WA
18,794 posts, read 13,629,478 times
Reputation: 7921
another great presentation, OP--well done.

When I looked at the exit polls on Nov 7, the thing that jumped out at me was that Obama got 92%, 73%, and 70% respectively of black, Asian, and Hispanic votes. That was just about one quarter of the total electorate.

Why would these three groups, with quite divergent economic interests, all vote Democratic? The obvious explanation to me is that there is a widespread perception that the GOP is the home of the racist. Now I don't believe this about the GOP, but nonetheless in politics perception is reality.

Most voters don't seek out information, but just absorb it from the environment. They get it from sources like Kanye West, from Daily Show, the public ed system etc., i.e. the infotainment-sphere, which is mostly owned and operated by the left.

I learned years ago that when I meet a black person I have to be very careful about admitting to be a Republican. Many a time I noticed the negative body language; the step back, the near-gasp of shock, usually quickly shut down but still noticable, etc. This was tough for me since in my younger days I had a thing for black women, lol. But anyway, the point is, the perception exists.

I hardly think that conservatism in America is a dead letter quite yet, not when we still control the house and 29 of 50 governorships. But I do think that conservatives have our work cut out for us in overcoming this perception.
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Old 11-18-2012, 06:00 PM
 
Location: Cali
3,887 posts, read 6,009,381 times
Reputation: 2201
Quote:
Originally Posted by wehotex View Post
That will be nearly impossible here in Texas. Julian Castro is a tax-loving robin hood socialist and would be easily labeled as such. He just spearheaded a 1/8 cent sales tax to provide pre-k day care for poor people in SA. I like his progressivism on other things, but scorn any attempt to raise taxes, even sales taxes which disprortionately affect the poor.
I guess he'll probably never win state-wide office in TX then. I know the Dems are trying to make him into the "Latino Obama" for one thing.
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Old 11-18-2012, 10:27 PM
 
Location: NJ
18,677 posts, read 16,483,552 times
Reputation: 7274
Quote:
Originally Posted by wutitiz View Post
another great presentation, OP--well done.

When I looked at the exit polls on Nov 7, the thing that jumped out at me was that Obama got 92%, 73%, and 70% respectively of black, Asian, and Hispanic votes. That was just about one quarter of the total electorate.

Why would these three groups, with quite divergent economic interests, all vote Democratic? The obvious explanation to me is that there is a widespread perception that the GOP is the home of the racist. Now I don't believe this about the GOP, but nonetheless in politics perception is reality.

Most voters don't seek out information, but just absorb it from the environment. They get it from sources like Kanye West, from Daily Show, the public ed system etc., i.e. the infotainment-sphere, which is mostly owned and operated by the left.

I learned years ago that when I meet a black person I have to be very careful about admitting to be a Republican. Many a time I noticed the negative body language; the step back, the near-gasp of shock, usually quickly shut down but still noticable, etc. This was tough for me since in my younger days I had a thing for black women, lol. But anyway, the point is, the perception exists.

I hardly think that conservatism in America is a dead letter quite yet, not when we still control the house and 29 of 50 governorships. But I do think that conservatives have our work cut out for us in overcoming this perception.

Reagan would have been ashamed of Romney's self-deportation proposal. Amnesty in 1986 occured under RR. The Tea Party is the reason Americans correctly question the willingness of the GOP to respect a changing demographic landscape. I do not think the true Romney would favor deportation, but he feared the TP so much, and it got him.. a resounding electoral loss Nov 6.

PS, Reagan would have defended anyone in Rick Perry's situation sadly getting jeered for a logical position on the CHILDREN of illegals and education.

Kanye West cannot harm the GOP. The TP already has, far more effectively. The TP can help them hold the House, but federally, the Senate and POTUS are not possible for a GOP welcoming the TP.
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