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Old 11-19-2012, 08:28 AM
 
Location: Crooklyn, New York
27,671 posts, read 24,981,964 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mateo45 View Post
You just can't seem to help yourself with that "prediction addiction", can ya...?
If Rasmussen says it is so, then...
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Old 11-19-2012, 08:37 AM
 
Location: Bella Vista, Ark
69,648 posts, read 80,013,751 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by urbanlife78 View Post
I can believe this cause it is from Nate Silver who seems to be accurate. Although it isn't a hard prediction since the redistricting that happened in 2010, many of the Republican seats are deep red seats that will be safe for them unless there is a massive change over of people in their voting districts.

Of course my prediction is the Republicans will hold the House for many terms to come, but the Democrats will hold the Senate and President for many terms to come as well.
and a couple of seats that were affected by redistricting gave a huge advantage to the Democrats...What is to be considered: normally when a Pres wins, especially when he is a sitting Pres the country follows by putting his party in charge of both houses. Add to that, normally mid term elections favor the party not in power: useing both these scenerios, it is likely the Republicans will keep control of the house. Also we all need to remember, there are more Republican governors now than there have been since the 1920s.
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Old 11-19-2012, 06:48 PM
 
755 posts, read 615,004 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nmnita View Post
and a couple of seats that were affected by redistricting gave a huge advantage to the Democrats...What is to be considered: normally when a Pres wins, especially when he is a sitting Pres the country follows by putting his party in charge of both houses. Add to that, normally mid term elections favor the party not in power: useing both these scenerios, it is likely the Republicans will keep control of the house. Also we all need to remember, there are more Republican governors now than there have been since the 1920s.
No, that does not 'normally happen'.

For example, let's look at the last 40 years.
1972, Nixon -- didn't happen; Nixon won a 49-state landslide but the Democrats held both houses
1976, Carter -- happened
1980, Reagan -- didn't happen; the Democrats held the House
1984, Reagan -- didn't happen; the Democrats held the House
1988, GHW Bush -- didn't happen; the Democrats held both the House and the Senate (having flipped the latter in 1986)
1992, Clinton -- happened
1996, Clinton -- didn't happen; the GOP held both houses (having flipped them in 1994)
2000, GW Bush -- happened (mostly; the Democrats captured the 50-50 Senate in early January, then lost it when Cheney became Vice President on January 20)
2004, GW Bush -- happened
2008 -- happened
2012 -- didn't happen

So, we see that in 11 Presidential elections, over half the time the President did not win both houses of Congress (contrary to your claim that this 'normally' happens). Furthermore, you claim that this is 'especially' true when a President is a sitting President, but as you can see, in the last five times we re-elected a President (Nixon, Reagan, Clinton, GW Bush, Obama) only once did what you claim happens, in fact, actually happen.

Nice try on the spin, but it just doesn't jibe with the actual facts.
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Old 11-19-2012, 09:30 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
18,800 posts, read 14,923,006 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nmnita View Post
and a couple of seats that were affected by redistricting gave a huge advantage to the Democrats...What is to be considered: normally when a Pres wins, especially when he is a sitting Pres the country follows by putting his party in charge of both houses. Add to that, normally mid term elections favor the party not in power: useing both these scenerios, it is likely the Republicans will keep control of the house. Also we all need to remember, there are more Republican governors now than there have been since the 1920s.
Redistricting helped the GOP in both 2000 and 2010, there was more Republican gerrymanders than Democratic ones
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Old 11-19-2012, 09:44 PM
 
Location: Portland, Oregon
46,054 posts, read 28,464,541 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nmnita View Post
and a couple of seats that were affected by redistricting gave a huge advantage to the Democrats...What is to be considered: normally when a Pres wins, especially when he is a sitting Pres the country follows by putting his party in charge of both houses. Add to that, normally mid term elections favor the party not in power: useing both these scenerios, it is likely the Republicans will keep control of the house. Also we all need to remember, there are more Republican governors now than there have been since the 1920s.
There a combination of good fiscal conservative governors out there, as well as republican governors who just so happen to live in red States.
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Old 10-09-2013, 02:06 PM
 
Location: Type 0.7 Kardashev
10,577 posts, read 6,891,376 times
Reputation: 37368
Bill Young Announces Retirement From Congress (Updated) | At the Races

Quote:
Rep. C.W. Bill Young, a 22-term Republican, announced Wednesday that he will not seek re-election in 2014, according to a report in the Tampa Bay Times.

Young’s retirement creates an opportunity for Democrats in Florida’s 13th District. President Barack Obama carried the district by 1 point in 2012.

Young is the longest-serving Republican in the House. The 82-year-old told the newspaper that after suffering health problems over the past few years, “it’s my time” to retire.
This development notwithstanding, I certainly agree with Silver's assessment; a double-digit gain (and the Demorats need 18 seats) of House seats in a mid-term election by the party controlling the Presidency is unprecedented since the Civil War.
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Old 10-09-2013, 05:16 PM
 
Location: Columbia, SC
16,499 posts, read 9,373,043 times
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That article was written before the hostage taking. If Boehner doesn't sober up soon and send a clean CR to the WH, Silver may get sat on his butt.
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Old 10-09-2013, 05:34 PM
 
Location: San Antonio
2,861 posts, read 4,220,753 times
Reputation: 1573
Silver's pretty shrewd and pragmatic, and tends to adjust his model as information and situations change as time goes by. It will be interesting too see what, if any, changes with his prediction after the shutdown is over.
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Old 10-09-2013, 08:26 PM
 
25,060 posts, read 22,268,931 times
Reputation: 11578
I think we'll have a better picture as time goes on. Right now, all we know is the GOP has the advantage mostly due to redistricting. I think we'll have a much clearer picture by the end of summer next year
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Old 10-09-2013, 08:43 PM
 
Location: SF Bay Area
14,330 posts, read 19,093,607 times
Reputation: 18436
There was a time, not long ago, when there was NO QUESTION that the hapless GOP would keep control of the House. Now, SKEPTICISM is before us. The Republican party is in a free fall accelerated by this latest stupid move by the tea party-decimated GOP House members. I say the trend is real. Republicans are in serious, serious trouble in the House, so you Regressives better start biting your nails and pacing back and forth more than usual.

Nate Silver is wrong. The only people who cling to what he is saying here are GOP Desperados.
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