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Old 11-30-2012, 08:20 AM
 
755 posts, read 613,901 times
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A Santorum run in 2016 is very logical.

First, the GOP tends to nominate the candidate who came in second the previous time (Romney, McCain, Dole, GHW Bush, Reagan) -- such candidates simply come to their second run at the nomination (and third, in the case of Dole and Reagan) with a fair number of built-in advantages.

Second, Santorum massively overperformed in 2012. With a bare-bones campaign, he won Iowa and finished a clear second in the nomination race and winning a total of 11 states (the same number of states won by Romney in his 2008 second-place finish). He finished far ahead of the former Speaker of the House (and the de facto head of the GOP in the latter half of the 1990s) and the wonder-Governor who was supposed to run away with the nomination (Perry). He eventually lost, of course -- to the guy who also lost the time before (and -- Romney -- he lost to a guy who had lost the time before -- McCain) by being carpet-bombed 10-1 in expenditures.

I fully expect Santorum to run and be a top-tier candidate for the Republican nomination, for the reasons above.
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Old 11-30-2012, 08:43 AM
 
Location: Charlotte NC
11,381 posts, read 8,928,810 times
Reputation: 4978
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mictlantecuhtli View Post
A Santorum run in 2016 is very logical.

First, the GOP tends to nominate the candidate who came in second the previous time (Romney, McCain, Dole, GHW Bush, Reagan) -- such candidates simply come to their second run at the nomination (and third, in the case of Dole and Reagan) with a fair number of built-in advantages.

Second, Santorum massively overperformed in 2012. With a bare-bones campaign, he won Iowa and finished a clear second in the nomination race and winning a total of 11 states (the same number of states won by Romney in his 2008 second-place finish). He finished far ahead of the former Speaker of the House (and the de facto head of the GOP in the latter half of the 1990s) and the wonder-Governor who was supposed to run away with the nomination (Perry). He eventually lost, of course -- to the guy who also lost the time before (and -- Romney -- he lost to a guy who had lost the time before -- McCain) by being carpet-bombed 10-1 in expenditures.

I fully expect Santorum to run and be a top-tier candidate for the Republican nomination, for the reasons above.
that fool isn't winning anything... sure you can hang around and even win the GOP nomination because the GOP love to eat their own in the primaries. If Santorum won the nomination I think we would see the first woman elected or the first latino elected. Heck, you might see a female latino elected because no one... and I mean no one with half a clue would vote for Santorum in the general.
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Old 11-30-2012, 09:55 AM
 
755 posts, read 613,901 times
Reputation: 438
Quote:
Originally Posted by Feltdesigner View Post
that fool isn't winning anything... sure you can hang around and even win the GOP nomination because the GOP love to eat their own in the primaries. If Santorum won the nomination I think we would see the first woman elected or the first latino elected. Heck, you might see a female latino elected because no one... and I mean no one with half a clue would vote for Santorum in the general.
I was speaking only of the nomination race.

Of course, the fact is that once a nomination is won, anything can happen. Imagine if John Edwards had won the Democratic nomination in 2008, and then in September the whole Rielle Hunter affair had come out. The result?

President McCain.

As I've pointed out elsewhere, history is full of Presidents who couldn't possibly win the Presidency ... and then took up residence at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. It is for this reason precisely that I do not want to see the Republicans nominate Rick Santorum in 2016. However, an objective look at history, but long-term trends and recent performances, suggests he has a real shot at the nomination.
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Old 11-30-2012, 10:03 AM
 
7,212 posts, read 5,297,129 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mictlantecuhtli View Post
I was speaking only of the nomination race.

Of course, the fact is that once a nomination is won, anything can happen. Imagine if John Edwards had won the Democratic nomination in 2008, and then in September the whole Rielle Hunter affair had come out. The result?

President McCain.

As I've pointed out elsewhere, history is full of Presidents who couldn't possibly win the Presidency ... and then took up residence at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. It is for this reason precisely that I do not want to see the Republicans nominate Rick Santorum in 2016. However, an objective look at history, but long-term trends and recent performances, suggests he has a real shot at the nomination.
++

Santorum might make for some amusing late night comedy in the primaries, but I don't want him on a general election ballot. I'd much rather see the GOP nominate a reasonable, intelligent human being. Unfortunately, the Republican party is sufficiently dominated by theocratically-minded bigots that he might be able to mount a serious campaign.
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Old 11-30-2012, 10:15 AM
 
Location: USA - midwest
5,945 posts, read 4,729,122 times
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Thumbs up Santorum hints at 2016 run

Go, Ricky-boy!

You little weasel-face chickenhawk.
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Old 11-30-2012, 10:17 AM
 
Location: Charlotte NC
11,381 posts, read 8,928,810 times
Reputation: 4978
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mictlantecuhtli View Post
I was speaking only of the nomination race.

Of course, the fact is that once a nomination is won, anything can happen. Imagine if John Edwards had won the Democratic nomination in 2008, and then in September the whole Rielle Hunter affair had come out. The result?

President McCain.

As I've pointed out elsewhere, history is full of Presidents who couldn't possibly win the Presidency ... and then took up residence at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. It is for this reason precisely that I do not want to see the Republicans nominate Rick Santorum in 2016. However, an objective look at history, but long-term trends and recent performances, suggests he has a real shot at the nomination.
If Edwards won the nomination the story would never come out during the election. She would probably be living overseas if he was nominated.

The only reason the story broke was because he didn't win... they held it for a long time.
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Old 11-30-2012, 10:48 AM
 
Location: Bella Vista, Ark
69,541 posts, read 79,825,470 times
Reputation: 38892
Quote:
Originally Posted by pch1013 View Post
Oh please oh please oh please...

Santorum: 'I'm Open' to 2016 Run | The Weekly Standard

He seriously seems to believe that the GOP needs to double-down on social conservatism and add a note of economic "populism," whatever that means in an ultraconservative religious context.

Good luck with that.
I would not be surprised if he gives it another try, but I don't see him going anywhere or let's hope not anyway. Of course saying he is open and actually running are 2 different things. There are so many up and coming, new faces in the party, I just can't see him getting the support he got this last go around.. of course my record at predicting winners and losers is about as good at Dick Morris's.

Last edited by nmnita; 11-30-2012 at 11:01 AM..
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Old 11-30-2012, 10:50 AM
 
Location: Bella Vista, Ark
69,541 posts, read 79,825,470 times
Reputation: 38892
Quote:
Originally Posted by banjomike View Post
Hope spring eternal. Santorum is a 3-time loser. He may well throw his hat in the ring, but he won't last past the first round if he does.
I see it that way as well, but look what happened this past go around...we all thought he would be the first to drop out::::NOT!!!!!
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Old 11-30-2012, 10:53 AM
 
Location: Bella Vista, Ark
69,541 posts, read 79,825,470 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by evan83 View Post
He's the second in line to the thrown. Republicans ALWAYS nominate the second in line four years later.
In recent years this has been the case. Let's hope they have learned their lesson...We also didn't have a lot of great, new faces to choose from over the past 20 to 30 years, now we do. Look at the pool we had this time..Most were has beens....the truely good candidates, either were scared out by the media, or were not ready yet. Oh, BTW, W Bush was not the second one in live by any means.
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Old 11-30-2012, 11:03 AM
 
Location: Charlotte NC
11,381 posts, read 8,928,810 times
Reputation: 4978
Quote:
Originally Posted by nmnita View Post
I see it that way as well, but look what happened this past go around...we all thought he would be the first to drop out::::NOT!!!!!
Rick doesn't have anything else to do...

this is why he he will never be the first to drop out and will always run for POTUS. God forbid the guy gets an actual job.
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