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True to a point. Its certainly way too early to know how exactly its going to go. However, certain things are certain. Steve King wins the GOP Primary in Iowa, the Dems hold the seat period. Broun gets the nomination in Georgia, the Dems win the seat period. Some things are that certain even this far out.
I am hoping Broun wins the nomination. I would love to see an election that is a referendum on science.
I think the GOP has jumped the shark. The complete foolishness of the house for the last three years has alienated all except the true believers. For all the shouting and militant craziness, they are a shrinking share of the electorate. I think we might be seeing the fallout in 2014. They are unlikely to gain the senate, and they may well lose the house. I hope the hell they do. I have had enough of these bozons.
I think the GOP has jumped the shark. The complete foolishness of the house for the last three years has alienated all except the true believers. For all the shouting and militant craziness, they are a shrinking share of the electorate. I think we might be seeing the fallout in 2014. They are unlikely to gain the senate, and they may well lose the house. I hope the hell they do. I have had enough of these bozons.
There's almost no chance of that happening. The Democrats next realistic chance at the House will be in 2016.
The GOP was suppose to take the Senate in 2010, 2012, and now they are saying they will get it 2014. I will believe it when I see it. If the tea party keeps electing terrible candidates in the primary, Democrats will hang onto the Senate again.
There's almost no chance of that happening. The Democrats next realistic chance at the House will be in 2016.
That's my prediction, too. They will probably keep the House in 2014 and if Hillary wins big in 2016 that will probably spill over for down ballot elections flip the House to the Democrats.
PPP's newest South Dakota poll finds that the race has tightened since the summer, with Republican Mike Rounds now winning by only 6 points. He’s at 40% to 34% for Democrat Rick Weiland, with Libertarian Kurt Evans polling at 11%.
The Senate campaign is taking a toll on Rounds’ popularity. When PPP polled South Dakota in March he had a 51/34 favorability rating, but now voters are closely divided on him with 42% seeing him favorably to 40% with a negative opinion. Rounds’ standing has dropped with Democrats, Republicans, and independents alike.
This is an interesting poll, but not so much for what it tells us about the South Dakota Senate race. After all, Rounds still leads at a time when the Republican brand is probably at a nadir for this cycle. That said, Rounds was the GOP's A-list candidate for this race, while Rick Weiland is just some guy who has lost a couple of races in the past (one a primary, the other the general election for the at-large South Dakota House seat).
Rounds is still very likely to win this race.
But the fact that Mike Rounds, who managed to win a gubernatorial election by a 25%-margin in the Democratic wave year of 2006, currently only holds a single-digit lead over a relative nobody, underscores in part just how much damage the Republican Party has done to itself lately.
What? he hit 2012 spot on, over 30 Senate races plus all 50 states for POTUS. In 2008, he went 84 for 85.
Nate does long term Either/Or and then comes up with his "spot on" prediction a week or less before the election. In 2010, a week before the Mid-Term - he was 'predicting' that the Democrats would hold the House by 64%. Ooops
2014 is a year away and a lot can happen. In 2014, the entire election is going to be just like it was in 2010 ... all about ObamaCare. If it works, Dems will win, if it doesn't - they will lose. ObamaCare now is in control of our entire economy in many ways. Democrats will try to make it another "War on Women", "War on immigrants and Brown people", "They will put you back in Chains", "They will take away your Birth Control" ..... but I doubt that will work this time.
Nate does long term Either/Or and then comes up with his "spot on" prediction a week or less before the election. In 2010, a week before the Mid-Term - he was 'predicting' that the Democrats would hold the House by 64%. Ooops
2014 is a year away and a lot can happen. In 2014, the entire election is going to be just like it was in 2010 ... all about ObamaCare. If it works, Dems will win, if it doesn't - they will lose. ObamaCare now is in control of our entire economy in many ways. Democrats will try to make it another "War on Women", "War on immigrants and Brown people", "They will put you back in Chains", "They will take away your Birth Control" ..... but I doubt that will work this time.
The only 'ooops' is the fact that you're making a demonstrably false claim.
Unfortunately for you, Nate Silver's 538 columns are all archived. So let's take a look at October of 2010. Since the election was on November 2 of that year, 'a week before' was October 26th.
There is uncertainty in the forecast: Democrats have a 20 percent chance of maintaining control of the House, essentially unchanged from a 21 percent chance yesterday. Much of this 20 percent probability reflects the potential for there to be systematic errors in the polling, as there were in years like 1998.
Since there are a very large number of competitive seats, relatively small anomalies in the polling could potentially affect the outcome of dozens of races. Although the Democrats’ overall position is poor, it is not yet so poor that it couldn’t be salvaged if they beat their polling averages by 2 or 3 points nationwide.
Still, such errors could also work in Republicans’ favor, potentially enabling gains in excess of 60 or even 70 seats. And much of the data released within the last day suggests that, if anything, they are strengthening their position. Republican candidates received encouraging polling numbers today in districts like the California 20th, the New York 20th, the Florida Eighth, the New Jersey Third, the Virginia Ninth, and the Idaho First, and their winning chances there were improved as a result.
So, your bogus claim notwithstanding, a week before the 2010 mid-terms Silver explicitly gave the Democrats only a 20% chance of holding the House, and specifically noted that Republicans were surging and had a potential of gaining 60 or 70 seats (they gained 63).
I decided to dig back into 538's 2010 archives and found as early as April, seven months before the election, Silver was warning of the Democrats losing at least 50 House seats - long before his model based on specific general election polls was officially predicting such gains.
For starters, let's look at the state of the generic congressional ballot. The Real Clear Politics average now shows Republicans with a 2.3 point lead. How does that translate in terms of a potential loss of seats for the Democrats?
These sorts of questions have been the subject of many, many academic studies, almost all of which involve far more rigor than what I've applied here. This is just meant to establish a benchmark. But that benchmark is a really bad one for Democrats. One reasonably well-informed translation of the generic ballot polls is that the Democrats would lose 51 House seats if the election were held today.
In other words, contrary to your completely false claim that he only gets it right at the last minute, Silver was acknowledging early in 2010 that the available data was pointing to an enormous Republican wave come November.
The Republicans had a chance to pick up one seat this week in the Senate - from New Jersey - but they failed.
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