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Old 08-07-2013, 01:07 PM
 
Location: Renton Washington
256 posts, read 437,562 times
Reputation: 177

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I just enjoy predicting this stuff so lets all have predictions.

These are my swing states for the next election

Oregon
Nevada
Arizona
New Mexico
Colorado
Minnesota
Iowa
Wisconsin
Ohio
Virginia
North Carolina
New Hampshire
Georgia
Florida

Also I would like to address the GOP can not win elections. Obama is falling and with all the spying and attacking marijuana and is losing the youth and liberal-libertarian type of voter. If the GOP gets on the right page on same sex marriage and run on a semi libertarian ticket they could get alot of youth voters and even some minorities. I do not believe the GOP is a lost cause yet but they need to get it together.
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Old 08-07-2013, 03:24 PM
 
Location: Bella Vista, Ark
69,368 posts, read 79,577,446 times
Reputation: 38701
Quote:
Originally Posted by downnice View Post
I just enjoy predicting this stuff so lets all have predictions.

These are my swing states for the next election

Oregon
Nevada
Arizona
New Mexico
Colorado
Minnesota
Iowa
Wisconsin
Ohio
Virginia
North Carolina
New Hampshire
Georgia
Florida

Also I would like to address the GOP can not win elections. Obama is falling and with all the spying and attacking marijuana and is losing the youth and liberal-libertarian type of voter. If the GOP gets on the right page on same sex marriage and run on a semi libertarian ticket they could get alot of youth voters and even some minorities. I do not believe the GOP is a lost cause yet but they need to get it together.
Most any state can be considered a swing state at this point: it would be easier to list the states that are not going to be swing states.

My opinion and that is all it is: of those you have listed: AZ is nowhere neat a swing state at this time, nor is Georgia or Oregon. I am saying at this time. Yes, CO, VA, Fl and NV are very much swing states.
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Old 08-07-2013, 03:31 PM
 
10,791 posts, read 6,913,107 times
Reputation: 4118
Quote:
Originally Posted by downnice View Post
I just enjoy predicting this stuff so lets all have predictions.

These are my swing states for the next election

Oregon
Nevada
Arizona
New Mexico
Colorado
Minnesota
Iowa
Wisconsin
Ohio
Virginia
North Carolina
New Hampshire
Georgia
Florida

Also I would like to address the GOP can not win elections. Obama is falling and with all the spying and attacking marijuana and is losing the youth and liberal-libertarian type of voter. If the GOP gets on the right page on same sex marriage and run on a semi libertarian ticket they could get alot of youth voters and even some minorities. I do not believe the GOP is a lost cause yet but they need to get it together.
The generational and demographic shifts in the USA will continue to hurt the GOP in 2016. They have done nothing to expand upon their base. If Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee you will see a lot more swing states than in 2012. All of the states Obama won in 2008 and 2012 will go to Hillary, plus you could put Georgia in the mix as a new swing state. I don't think Arizona will be a swing state in 2016, but maybe in 2020 it will be.
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Old 08-07-2013, 03:50 PM
 
4,176 posts, read 3,889,269 times
Reputation: 1667
Unfortunately, the electoral college dictates that Florida, Virginia, and Ohio will once again be the states to watch. States like Colorado, Nevada, and possibly Iowa can come into play depending on what happens with those other three. However, the map is once again going to be very tough for the GOP. I love playing with this site:

2016 Presidential Election Interactive Map and History of the Electoral College

You can see how difficult it will be for Republicans next time. The Dem can lose the entire trifect of FL/VA/OH and still win the election assuming s/he gets CO/NV/IA.

Therefore, I think your swing state list needs to be abbreviated to these:

FL
VA
OH
IA
CO

and possibly NV, although with the increasing Hispanic population, probably not.

The GOP would like to pretend that the Great Lakes (including PA -- Romney badly underperformed there) are in play, but they really aren't. Obviously none of the West Coast is in play. GOP had fantasies of winning the election by getting NH and some other odd combination of states, ignoring the fact that winning NH would have meant a wave elsewhere, and so NH wouldn't have been needed. 2000 is the last time NH will really have mattered. NM won't be in play because Republican economic policy has destroyed their chances there. I doubt the Dems will worry too much about AZ or GA. They won't need them; no reason to waste resources there. You begin to see why some GOP state legislatures are toying with allocation of electoral votes.

It would be really fascinating to watch a Dem just cast FL/VA/OH to the wind and make a big play on the other states.

I think the greatest challenge for the Dems will be motivating voters. Obama brought out a lot of people who wouldn't have otherwise voted. The next nominee will have a much steeper hill to climb in that regard.

Last edited by Globe199; 08-07-2013 at 04:07 PM..
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Old 08-07-2013, 04:02 PM
 
2,633 posts, read 2,965,646 times
Reputation: 1669
Texas.
It will probably go Red in 2016, but for the first time in recent history the GOP will need to expend resources to keep it.
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Old 08-07-2013, 04:33 PM
 
Location: Pine Grove,AL
21,777 posts, read 10,623,712 times
Reputation: 3961
Quote:
Originally Posted by downnice View Post
I just enjoy predicting this stuff so lets all have predictions.

These are my swing states for the next election

Oregon
Nevada
Arizona
New Mexico
Colorado
Minnesota
Iowa
Wisconsin
Ohio
Virginia
North Carolina
New Hampshire
Georgia
Florida

Also I would like to address the GOP can not win elections. Obama is falling and with all the spying and attacking marijuana and is losing the youth and liberal-libertarian type of voter. If the GOP gets on the right page on same sex marriage and run on a semi libertarian ticket they could get alot of youth voters and even some minorities. I do not believe the GOP is a lost cause yet but they need to get it together.
Minnesota is one of the bluest states in the union.

Republicans also need to learn to be realistic, Even in the most generous polls, President Obama's approval rating has only dropped 4 points and there is million reasons why that could have happened.

A Republican is also never going to win a Liberal-Libertarian, that doesnt even make sense. a Liberal libertarian is left of the Democratic party.
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Old 08-07-2013, 05:50 PM
 
125 posts, read 109,823 times
Reputation: 184
Quote:
Originally Posted by dsjj251 View Post
Minnesota is one of the bluest states in the union.

Republicans also need to learn to be realistic, Even in the most generous polls, President Obama's approval rating has only dropped 4 points and there is million reasons why that could have happened.

A Republican is also never going to win a Liberal-Libertarian, that doesnt even make sense. a Liberal libertarian is left of the Democratic party.
Not really. It's a blue state, but I wouldn't put it among, for example, the 10 bluest (VT, MA, CT, RI, NY, NJ, DE, MD, IL, CA, HI are all more solidly blue.

On the other hand, it is not a swing state (but Republicans have been insisting for since 2000 that, any election now, they're gonna carry it in a Presidential election ... but they never do).
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Old 08-07-2013, 06:20 PM
 
10,115 posts, read 6,736,457 times
Reputation: 3408
I think the swing states are going to depend on who runs on the R side. If Jeb Bush runs and gets the nomination, then I think we'll see the same fights we saw this last round. If Bush doesn't run, then I think the R's are going to nominate a true believer--a hard right conservative--and all the "rules" go out the window. I think the second scenario is what the Democrats are hoping for.
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Old 08-07-2013, 06:25 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
18,710 posts, read 14,831,582 times
Reputation: 3846
Quote:
Originally Posted by nmnita View Post
Most any state can be considered a swing state at this point: it would be easier to list the states that are not going to be swing states.

My opinion and that is all it is: of those you have listed: AZ is nowhere neat a swing state at this time, nor is Georgia or Oregon. I am saying at this time. Yes, CO, VA, Fl and NV are very much swing states.
I would generally agree with this and I would also add New Mexico as no longer a swing state. Georgia is one to potentially watch. It is seeing the same demographic and transplant changes in the ATL metro as we have seen in NOVA & the Richmond metro areas in VA and the Research Triangle and Charlotte in NC. With that being said, the movement started a bit later in GA than the others, the outer exurbs are still uber GOP (Forsyth), and it has a bit longer to go than the others so I don't think it can be put into the swing cloumn in 2016, but it will be interesting to see if some small movement continues. Some of thrown Texas about as a possible swing state in the not to distant future, I generally disagree with that premise, but Georgia is certainly a possibility.

Others have bought Minnesota into the mix, it really isn't a swing state nor is it a heavy Democratic state. It is similar to PA in some ways. The GOP's floor is generally a bit higher there than many other Dem states, but the ceiling is quite low as well
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Old 08-07-2013, 07:11 PM
 
Location: 22 months till retirement and I can leave the hell hole of New Yakistan
23,292 posts, read 13,027,371 times
Reputation: 5865
almost any state could be a swing state, it all depends in the time, the candidate, and the issues.....remember Reagan won 44 states including new York and cali in 1980.....and took 49 states in 1984

even new York could swing..for the STATE is mostly rural and quite red...its the city of NYC and the suburbs of long island/westchester that make the state blue as a whole.

many sections of very blue cali are actually red


that being said, based on current trends it will be difficult for any republican to take the prize, unless they straighten up their act
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