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Old 12-29-2013, 08:49 AM
 
Location: Vegas
1,789 posts, read 1,798,401 times
Reputation: 1767

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By Sean Sullivan, December 27 at 2:12 pm

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...ol-300x200.jpg
( AP photo)

With just days until the 2014 midterm election year is officially upon us, there are fresh signs of trouble for congressional Democrats.

A trio of findings spells bad news for Democrats in a new CNN/ORC International poll CNN Poll: GOP has edge in early midterm indicator – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs released Thursday: The generic ballot test has broken sharply toward Republicans, voter enthusiasm for Democrats is lower than it is on the GOP side, and President Obama is shaping up as an albatross for candidates who support him.

Is the Washington Post a right-wing rag? How about CNN? In any case, the polls give us Republicans/Independents/Libertarians a bright look at 2014 mid-terms. We all know Dems outnumber Repubs in registered voters. But, does this mean fewer of the first and more of the second will actually turn out to vote. Any how, read the article and check out the link.

Last edited by CaseyB; 12-29-2013 at 09:14 AM..
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Old 12-29-2013, 09:25 AM
 
1,256 posts, read 3,534,315 times
Reputation: 778
This was already discussed elsewhere. Just because a Me-Too Media article REPEATS (you know....ME-TOO Media) what a different article said somewhere else doesn't make it new or interesting.

The poll was a telephone poll - that says all you need to know about its representation of the general public. (note - a poll itself can be accurate plus or minus 4 percent (or whatever this one is), but that says nothing at all if the population the poll queries itself is nonrepresentative; Gallup learned this the hard way in the last presidential election...as should we).

Last edited by sullyguy; 12-29-2013 at 09:35 AM..
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Old 12-29-2013, 09:39 AM
 
7,101 posts, read 2,518,721 times
Reputation: 3589
No question that the GOP will have a big year in 2014. It's only a question of how big. The Republican Party has more success in off-year elections when fewer voters come to the polls because conservatives are historically more prone to vote than other groups. That's why I've never bought the argument that there are millions of right wingers that refuse to vote because their candidate isn't conservative enough. Conservatives in general vote with regularity. We could well see a repeat of 2010 with massive republican congressional gains followed by the GOP struggling when more people vote in 2016. It's becoming a pattern, with the GOP being stronger at the congressional level rather than presidential elections.

Last edited by Bureaucat; 12-29-2013 at 10:14 AM..
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Old 12-29-2013, 11:39 AM
 
Location: Vegas
1,789 posts, read 1,798,401 times
Reputation: 1767
Quote:
Originally Posted by sullyguy View Post
This was already discussed elsewhere. Just because a Me-Too Media article REPEATS (you know....ME-TOO Media) what a different article said somewhere else doesn't make it new or interesting.

The poll was a telephone poll - that says all you need to know about its representation of the general public. (note - a poll itself can be accurate plus or minus 4 percent (or whatever this one is), but that says nothing at all if the population the poll queries itself is nonrepresentative; Gallup learned this the hard way in the last presidential election...as should we).
I agree completely with the error of telephone polling.

I NEVER answer a call that isn't from someone I know - especially a pollster. And, if I somehow make an error and answer, I instantly hang up. And I am a very opinionated person!!!

The same holds true with exit polling. I've made my SECRET choice so why should I tell anyone what it is?
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Old 12-29-2013, 07:08 PM
 
3,667 posts, read 2,333,831 times
Reputation: 1970
Four years ago, I posted on other forums I frequent, the projection that the Dems would get slaughtered in the 2010 elections. I based this on what was happening at the December 2009 town hall meetings between congress members and their voters. Sadly, congress has learned from that episode and does not look to really want to have any opportunities to meet voters this time around, thus avoiding any bad publicity and thus telegraphing the potential November outcome.
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Old 12-29-2013, 11:00 PM
 
Location: Lost in Texas
9,832 posts, read 5,848,711 times
Reputation: 3404
The 2014 election is the republicans to lose. There is no reason that the senate should not go republican as well as strengthen the house, but the candidates can screw it up. If the republicans lose this election, they have no-one to blame but themselves.
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Old 12-30-2013, 05:54 AM
 
1,256 posts, read 3,534,315 times
Reputation: 778
Quote:
Originally Posted by freightshaker View Post
The 2014 election is the republicans to lose
And they will.

Millions of us out here are going to see that the Shutdown Weanies get voted out nationally and, as thoroughly as we can, locally.

[and a lot of us out here don't even BEGIN to think the Republicans have any sort of advantage now - and certainly not for the future; they're the almost-literally Do-Nothing representatives and they're going to realize what The People think about that]
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Old 12-30-2013, 07:12 AM
 
Location: Portland, Oregon
46,053 posts, read 29,528,523 times
Reputation: 7830
This is old news now and really false hope for the Republicans, much like it was false hope for them in 2012.
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Old 12-30-2013, 08:21 AM
 
Location: New Mexico
8,388 posts, read 8,341,042 times
Reputation: 4070
Quote:
Originally Posted by sargentodiaz View Post
By Sean Sullivan, December 27 at 2:12 pm

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...ol-300x200.jpg
( AP photo)

With just days until the 2014 midterm election year is officially upon us, there are fresh signs of trouble for congressional Democrats.

A trio of findings spells bad news for Democrats in a new CNN/ORC International poll CNN Poll: GOP has edge in early midterm indicator CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs released Thursday: The generic ballot test has broken sharply toward Republicans, voter enthusiasm for Democrats is lower than it is on the GOP side, and President Obama is shaping up as an albatross for candidates who support him.

Is the Washington Post a right-wing rag? How about CNN? In any case, the polls give us Republicans/Independents/Libertarians a bright look at 2014 mid-terms. We all know Dems outnumber Repubs in registered voters. But, does this mean fewer of the first and more of the second will actually turn out to vote. Any how, read the article and check out the link.

With the election more than 10 months away, this could very well change.
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Old 12-30-2013, 09:25 AM
 
Location: Bella Vista, Ark
71,970 posts, read 83,640,243 times
Reputation: 41777
Quote:
Originally Posted by sargentodiaz View Post
I agree completely with the error of telephone polling.

I NEVER answer a call that isn't from someone I know - especially a pollster. And, if I somehow make an error and answer, I instantly hang up. And I am a very opinionated person!!!

The same holds true with exit polling. I've made my SECRET choice so why should I tell anyone what it is?
I agree on phone polling, I won't go so far as to say, we never answer our phone if we do not know who is calling, I think that could backfire, but I would have no problem with exit polling. I know many feel the way you do, thus most forms of polling are not terribly accurate.
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