If in November the Senate ends up 50-50....... (vote, Republican, polls)
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
There is every indication it will happen. The President's popularity is mired in the high 30s and early 40s and the map favors the GOP.
Recent polling in places like deep blue Michigan, Minnesota, and Oregon indicates that those seats are in play.
But if it makes you feel better to believe the fantasy that there's no chance the Senate goes Republican, go ahead!
I can tell you six seats the Republicans win sitting here today, assuming no major changes between now and November: West Virginia, Arkansas, Louisisana, Alaska, North Carolina and South Dakota.
If you don't believe me, maybe this will help you understand:
Just like your previous predictions. Romney 300 + EV's, GOP adds to seats in the House, takes control of the Senate. Something you made on the EVE of Election Day in 2012 before disappearing for six months....
Fact of the matter is it is too early to make any confident predictions. The GOP looks like they will pick up seats at this point, but they will basically need a clean sweep of all the competitive seats including holding the ones they have. Considering how horrible the GOP's #'s are, a clean sweap is unlikely.
Given the overuse of the filibuster, that wouldn't change a thing. They aren't compromising now, and they sure as hell wouldn't compromise at 50/50.
Yes. The Senate is basically not controlled by either party as long as both have 41-59 seats. I don't think it's even remotely in the realm of possibility that either party will have 60 or more or less than 40 seats following the election. (There is always the nuclear option though.)
Fact of the matter is it is too early to make any confident predictions.
Yes, but people on here are already making predictions they feel are confident about 2016 and even beyond!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smash255
The GOP looks like they will pick up seats at this point, but they will basically need a clean sweep of all the competitive seats including holding the ones they have. Considering how horrible the GOP's #'s are, a clean sweap is unlikely.
They don't need a completely clean sweep. I also think Obamas numbers, as well as individual Senators'/candidates' numbers are a bit more important than those of the GOP as a whole. That being said, some Republicans always seem to throw away elections they should have had in the bag, as we've seen multiple examples of in the Senate elections both in 2010 and 2012. So I'd predict the Democrats may narrowly hold the Senate, but it's far too early to really know what will happen.
I don't believe you about North Carolina. For several reasons.
1. Obama's job approval has been on the upswing for the past few weeks. It is unlikely that will change.
2. Kay Hagan has made a lot of friends while as a Senator, such that she already has NAR going to bat for her. Expect more of that when it gets closer to election day.
3. The GOP is going to get nailed again when the legislative session starts up again. They are going to have a hard time controlling their back benchers since the entire legislature is relatively inexperienced and moral monday's is going to hit them hard in the summer and fall, because of it.
The GOP just didn't recruit well for the race, they will lose.
Obama's approval is on the upswing? Since when? I'm pretty sure it's held fairly steady at around 40% for awhile. And, even if it has gone up, what's the evidence it will continue to?
Obama's approval is on the upswing? Since when? I'm pretty sure it's held fairly steady at around 40% for awhile. And, even if it has gone up, what's the evidence it will continue to?
Yes, but people on here are already making predictions they feel are confident about 2016 and even beyond!
They don't need a completely clean sweep. I also think Obamas numbers, as well as individual Senators'/candidates' numbers are a bit more important than those of the GOP as a whole. That being said, some Republicans always seem to throw away elections they should have had in the bag, as we've seen multiple examples of in the Senate elections both in 2010 and 2012. So I'd predict the Democrats may narrowly hold the Senate, but it's far too early to really know what will happen.
People make predictions all the time, anything far out is of course hard to tell. I just found it ironic, the person that had the worst prediction on here in 2012 (the night before Election Day) is so confident in his predictions, a bit absurd.
As you mentioned the GOP has thrown away a few sure pickups with their nominees the last few years. They could do so in Georgia with Paul Broun among others. In NC, they could make things more diccicult by going with someone from the very unpopular Assembly. Not to mention any other potential surprises and nutters that come along the way.
As you mentioned the GOP has thrown away a few sure pickups with their nominees the last few years. They could do so in Georgia with Paul Broun among others. In NC, they could make things more diccicult by going with someone from the very unpopular Assembly. Not to mention any other potential surprises and nutters that come along the way.
In NC it is not just someone from the assembly it is someone running the show. The only Republican with any stature and backing running is Thom Tillis who runs the State House of Representatives.
It is up to 43 and climbing will disapproval is headed out of the 50s a few more weeks and I will suspect we will see polls showing positives.
I would also note that if you look at the last week disapproval numbers have collapsed.
It is starting to push upward, but before we start reading too much into it we need to see a bit more polling and a little more sustained. Lets not be like the Republicans and jump on one or two polls.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
